Optimization of Counterfactual Thinking

  • May 25, 2013 · 11:30 AM

I haven't had the time to invest in researching and processing the relevant materials for this idea yet!

My wife and I have a daughter who just turned one year old; it seems that the way she learns is by being wrong. As if her development is optimized to find new experiences which will prove the existing knowledge base incorrect.

Existing implementations of computing solutions, to my knowledge, optimize for the correct answer to problems.

A study by a BYU professor on how to produce optimal solutions from groups of humans, those with counterfactual participants performed better, is something that may relate to this idea.
Article HTML from Google Scholar: http://bit.ly/hY8bIi...

For HTM we could take that a step further: optimize for the expected error.

An example:
Website visitors place an item in their carts
They checkout at a high rate
Optimize HTM to search for ways to decrease the checkout rate
HTM figures the factors which decrease
HTM tests inverse


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  • Pieter de J.

    13th works for me. Also:

    Jeff Hawkins, Founder of Numenta: "Welcome to the NuPIC open source project."


    June 3, 2013

  • Warren S.

    13th is a lot better than 6th, for me.

    May 30, 2013

  • David

    This would be a great discussion - I think it's around the notion of supervised learning. I have offered up the Toyota meeting room for this discussion.
    I have availability in June.
    Please, all who are interested, can you add some comment as to when (maybe Thursday June 6th or Wednesday June 13th) whether this works...

    May 30, 2013

  • Pieter de J.

    Hi all. Where + when will this meetup be held? Thanks!

    May 28, 2013

  • David

    We can use the Toyota meeting room, but next week would work better.
    I also got approached by the Grok/Numenta team on getting our thoughts on their decision to open-source the CLA algorithms. We could discuss this too.

    Anyone care to suggest a new meeting day? Currently our meeting room is available from 6:30pm Thursday and Friday this week and from 6:30pm every day next week.

    May 21, 2013

    • Gregory S.

      Hi David - Didn't notice this discussion til now.

      May 25, 2013

  • Gregory S.

    Did this happen? If so where? Or did the Meetup software just diesel on? I showed up at Toyota but it was empty.

    Anyway, hope it was a good meeting if it happened.

    May 25, 2013

  • Steve C.


    May 24, 2013

  • Warren S.

    Tue, Wed, Fri of next week is good. This weekend is out. Am now a developer at Tempo.AI, which licenses some AI IP from SRI.

    May 23, 2013

  • Michael D. H.

    I like the date, any thoughts on the location or general geography which would be convenient?

    May 15, 2013

  • Krzysztof SoĊ›nierz changed the date and time to Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:30 AM

    May 9, 2013

  • Peggy A.

    maybe depending on when it is!

    September 21, 2012

  • Kristofer P.

    The counterfactual ideas/observations might be the ones which are most likely to point out the significant events affecting the observer/idea producer. Selecting the top most significant events as bases for any further optimization could solve the fr

    November 10, 2011

  • A former member
    A former member

    "Optimize HTM to search for ways to decrease the checkout rate"... Even if it increases the long-term sales, you'll never get businesspeople to accept it.

    May 17, 2011

  • A former member
    A former member

    Book the meetup!
    I am looking for work in the area also.

    April 18, 2011

  • David

    This is a proposal for a meetup. The last meetup was last month.

    April 14, 2011

  • Randall Lee R.

    It looks like it has been a long time since the last HTM meeting. ?

    April 14, 2011

  • David

    We all learn by our mistakes. Trouble is, we need the right encouragement and focus to figure out what went wrong. For a child, it's figuring out what will/wont fit in their mouth, down the john, etc...

    January 11, 2011

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