Predictive Forensics: Can we detect a crime before it occurs?

Can we detect a crime before it occurs?

Imagine you could predict that a crime would happen at a certain place and time…
Now, imagine that you could also predict who the possible suspects were, where they came from, and what their motives were…
Sounds like science fiction? Well… it may be… but the emphasis is on the “science” rather than the “fiction”, and we even have a name for it: Predictive Forensics.

Predictive Forensics is an analytics discipline that attempts to help identify and prevent crimes before they happen. Thanks to Predictive Forensics, the mode of operation of law enforcement is evolving from reactively indicting criminals to proactively preventing crimes from happening. Predictive Analytics, when used in forensics, allows crime analysts to forecast future crimes by analyzing historical crime data and identifying trends.

Bayesian methods, Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, and other advanced analytical methods can be used to identify criminals’ predilection or predisposition.

Agenda:
5:30 – 6:00    Pizza and networking
6:00 – 6:30    "Predictive Forensics" - Presenter: Dana Nehoran
6:30 – 7:15    Open forum discussion
7:15              CSBU Admissions Q&A

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  • Joanne

    How to request for the slides, please?

    July 29

  • Dana Nehoran

    joschka-joseph exactly!
    Look at this article, for example:
    http://www.law.emory.edu/filead...­

    “The future of policing blinks on a computer screen in downtown Los Angeles. On that screen, police have predicted the next area of potential criminal activity. Based on crime data collection, analysis, and computer modeling, the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) is directing patrol officers to a targeted block of expected crime.”

    In the article they define “investigative detentions” as predictions that the person is committing, or about to commit, a crime.

    The big question is: Can a computer program that predicts the probability of future crime locations change Fourth Amendment protections in the targeted area? …

    July 28

  • joschka-joseph anderson

    There is an interesting article in the Economist on this subject and a U.S. firm providing the software. Granted a 7% of accuracy is "not great" but its twice as better as the locals in L.A. or Kent,England. Given the NSA's and some organizations even more secret...I've no desire to live under automated system of "Zimmermans" deciding which Trayvon Martin to execute, phone to tap or gmail/faceboo/twitter to monitor or a "Minority report" probability law.
    The other mysterious nature of the subject ( Crime ) is an adjacent article wondering why the crime rate is dropping WORLD WIDE without this software or hang-em-high right wing or Draconian laws. Interesting!

    Like · Reply

    July 26

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