|Sent on:||Tuesday, March 19, 2013 4:13 PM|
We had a very nice turnout for the March VVUG meeting. Attendees included a number of new users, who found VectorVest through the New York Traders Expo, as well as many of the regular dedicated users who make up the core of this group. We covered a lot of ground with some very lively discussion, much of which was focused on the fact that markets are at or near new all time highs.
A reminder that our April Meeting will be held on April 13th. This is not our usual third Saturday of the month due to scheduling conflicts, so please note the date in your calendars.
We led off the meeting by going around the room with users sharing investment experience and hearing how individuals use or intend to use VectorVest. With such a strong group there were lots of great ideas to address. “When to sell” was brought up by a few users. This is a timely topic as markets are at or near all-time highs. We discussed the idea of using a moving average (price) stop on individual holdings. We demonstrated how moving averages can be adjusted to match the “personalities” of each holding. It was also suggested to use the VV Stop Price or even a moving average (stop price) as an exit. We also discussed simply selling all or part of a position as a method to protect profits.
VectorVest's Strategies of the Week (SOTW) were brought up. We discussed the educational value of these presentations as a great way to learn to use the many features within the VectorVest Platform as well as gathering new trading ideas, but continue to advocate learning to trade just a few strategies, really well. It is also very important to back test these SOTWs extensively before trading them, since they tend to show excellent results for the period tested by VV in the video, but often break down if tested over longer or different periods. For users looking for a good read, “The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes” by Mark Douglas was suggested by one of our users. We talked about the importance of keeping notes or trading journals as a method for improving our trading. This led into a discussion of how important it is to follow all trading signals when you trade a system. Not following all signals in your trading system is like selectively following traffic signals as you drive around town. Both will likely have similar results.
Next, we reviewed the VV front page indicators and status of the VectorVest market timing systems, all of which remain in bullish modes. Multiple divergences between the price of the VV Composite and many of the indicators that make up the VV Timing systems were discussed. While divergences are often early warning signals for changes in markets, they alone act only as flags for possible changes in markets. We then talked about the importance of sticking to the market timing system you are trading, managing individual positions and following VectorVest nightly color guard reports and guidance. We looked at the long term (10 year) price and MTI graphs. We reiterated how the MTI tends to be a great indicator for finding market bottoms, but it has not been as reliable for indicating market tops. But, once you are in a trade, you have to manage the trade. Price is the only indicator that really matters.
We then presented the Greenwich VVUG W-O-W Winners (Price/RT) system (see the attached Excel workbook file which shows ten years of trading results through March 15, 2013 as well as a detailed description of the system), which continues to perform well. In fact, if you went in with the system on the most recent C/Up call on December 18, 2012, you would be up 6.33% through March 15th, with only a 3.58% Maximum Drawdown. We discussed the robustness of the strategy and how consistently it has and continues to perform. The system has been extensively BackTested and is very simple to understand and trade. With a ten-year Calmar Ratio of 1.6, the W-O-W Winners (Price/RT) system is really worth a look. Don continues to trade, track and test this system.
As we started to run short of time, we briefly looked at the Sure-Fire trading system as presented on the VectorVest Welcome Page. This is the now the Flagship system for VectorVest. It is easy to follow and understand as the complete system is documented, in detail, by going to the VIEWS tab then selecting SPECIAL REPORTS on the left and clicking on the SURE-FIRE SUCCESS USER GUIDE at the bottom of the column. We will look forward to following the system as we have a number of users successfully trading it.
Finally, we reviewed the guidelines (see the attached file) for the Systematic Covered Writer trading system a few of us are now using. It has been almost a year since Stan introduced us to the Systematic Covered Writer and he was kind enough to share his results (via email) of positions he has closed over this time frame. The results were quite consistent and very impressive. Don reports that he started using the system about one month after Stan and has had very similar results for his closed positioons to date. We are looking forward to seeing Stan at our April 13th meeting for a further update on this system. If any are interested in learning more, please go to www.syscw.com.
It was really great seeing everyone; I really appreciate the input and active discussion. Good trading through the month, I look forward to seeing you at our next meeting on April 13th.