Kanban and No Estimates: how to use probabilistic forecasting for predictability, planning and commitments.
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@KanbanDan: If anyone was desperate to see my reach for the stars - the deck is on slideshare. http://t.co/9W818TTG6d #lsug
1 · June 13, 2013
Thanks very much Dan. I'll definitely have a Dig through
0 · June 16, 2013
Good content and presentation.
Raised lots of questions. Flow efficiency was the biggest take away for me
The presentation was good, but we didn't get the opportunity to ask questions. There are quite a few open ended questions that I would like share, if anyone is wiling to answer.
1. How the "No Estimates" & probabilistic forecasting" would work for the new project(s)?, as there will be no historic data to count the number of items. So is it wise to just start work without estimating? And how can we be sure that an item we are picking is really really really wanted by the customer?
2. If sprint planning is a waste, so as product backlog grooming, at what point we will discuss the non-technical & technical aspects of a user story. At what point the collaboration is taking place?
Regarding flow efficiency, I think the presentation was based on ideal scenarios, but realistically speaking, there are too many factors that could affect the flow efficiency and other things.
Any thoughts anyone?
0 · June 14, 2013
In answer to your 1st question, each team member must have some idea how long they took to complete stories on other projects. If you have a new team and certain members have not worked like this before, so have no previous reference, you'd have to give them an estimation based on the best and worst of the new team.
A well integrated team should be able to collaborate when the need arises but if a more formal point is required to make sure you discuss the items then it must be the topup meeting?
There are some rather long answers to these questions, give me a shout directly if you want me to help you implement kanban. In short 1 was covered last night, use the data you have from prior experience, and update as you get more and better data;2 I would propose using other techniques to get this value and collaboration. There is a lot of value in estimation other than the estimate, and BDD for example is a way to get that value and shared understanding as a team- perhaps at the point of coming into your ready queue. 3 try it and see what happens, always better than making an assumption. The point it highlights is that individual performance is only usually affecting 5% of overall performance, the system of work is affecting the other 95%, so that is where you will see the greatest improvement per effort put in.
1 · June 14, 2013
I was interested by the 2 commit points and the idea that backlog prioritisation is waste. It's common for multiple stakeholders with separate interests to request features from a single team, and maintaining a priority before the first commit point can be misleading and even cause dismay as people see their medium-value request perpetually treading water, 10th in the queue as higher value work jumps ahead of it... Any tips on sending the right message here?
Thanks all for the input. It's interesting to know your views.
@Dan: I'll give you a shout if the need arises
0 · June 15, 2013
However this isn't the whole story, even though it is the key practical message for management. Another relevant measure is resource efficiency (the amount of time each resource is actively adding value). If this is relatively high more productive programmers could have a positive impact on throughput (not necessarily Lead Time). However improving Resource Efficiency is generally not the right emphasis for management, because of its impact on flow. Paradoxically the optimum throughput and lead time will be achieved when both Process Efficiency and Resource Efficiency is less than 1. This is because to get Process Efficiency to 1 you have to have resources waiting for items. To get Resource Efficiency to 1 you have to have items waiting for resources. Both of these states are generally undesirable.
I would have been interested to follow up on the impact of replacing your developers with ones that are 10 times more productive - a most interesting and entirely hypothetical discussion. As David said if your Process Efficiency is 2% the impact on Lead Time of the new efficient team would only be 1.8% - roughly 2%. In this case focusing on the productivity of developers is the wrong focus for management. Instead look at where those wait states are and reduce the WIP. You may be able to dramatically improve delivery of business value without any improvement in development skills. This is a lesson still to be learned by most development and project managers.
Full house and interesting
I took away some good stuff, especially how to measure flow efficiency. Good refresher on the other stats. 12 years on those wednesday morning stats lectures at uni have finally paid off :-)
Fascinating talk, very thought provoking... I now have loads of idea!
The presentation was excellent, even if it started a bit late. I gave it a lower score as there was no opportunity to ask questions. The presentation triggered a bunch of questions in my head that I have no answers to...
2 · June 14, 2013
A very worthwhile evening
If anyone wants to know more about kanban, I'm running my LKU accredited kanban course on 1st July https://realkanban.eventbrite.co.uk/
Thought provoking challenge to accepted practices
0 · June 13, 2013
Hi guys, you should be able to register via the Skills Matter website now. Look forward to seeing you on Thursday!
0 · June 10, 2013
For the ones that we have already registered on the website, do we have to do it again? We should be already on a waiting list
I've asked Skills Matter to add people on the waiting to the participants list. So no need to sign up again.
Hi Mikey, thanks a lot for taking care of this
0 · June 11, 2013
Sounds an interesting topic
Tried to register at Skills Matter but says event full
0 · May 31, 2013
Just sign up to the waiting list. I'll get the issue solved.
Thanks Mikey, I really appreciated.
Was there a resolution to this? Did anyone get more than wait listed on skills matter?
1 · June 10, 2013
Yup had the same issue, waiting list for me as well...
It's still being sorted out with Skills Matter. If you sign up both here and on the waiting list (and show up on time), be assured that you'll be able to attend!
Please clarify, by signing up here does reserve a space?
No it doesn't (and never did). You have to sign up on both sites.
Looking forward to it!
I'm presuming the skills matter waiting list issue was resolved last week and is now really full? Let me know if not, or if this is an attendee-in-progress limit experiment :-)
Had the same issue, confirmed on here but wait listed on skills matter
Odd disconnect between here and skillsmatter in terms of availability. We should never have left the Square Pig.
0 · June 8, 2013
Flow Flow Flow your boat.....
Will be good to catch-up after a long time. Not sure if the place is confirmed as Skills Matter side suggests the places are full. Another one for you Mikey!
good topic, unfortunately travelling abroad
I have added myself to the Skills Matter waiting list.
0 · June 2, 2013
Hope it's possible to get a place though Skills Matter says it's full...
Cannot seem to get past captcha on skillsmatter plus there is a waiting list. Thanks anyway
I'm signed up, thanks Mikey and Myriam for making this happen
1 · May 31, 2013
Sign ups are open! Apologies for the delay. More details on the talk to follow.
0 · May 30, 2013
Hi Mikey, I think I can get us a venue. Could you please get in contact to advise the details in terms of number of attendees expected, and so forth? Thanks
0 · May 29, 2013
I didn't know there was a problem with the venue, I would have offer to assist earlier. Really thought it was more a matter of confirm David's calendar.
0 · May 24, 2013
Hi Mikey, I can try to get a venue, can't confirmed that though but I could give it a try. Would that help?
It just hasn't opened yet - were having some issues with Sills Matter. They double booked us and our room is gone :(
I'm guessing as Myriam posted in March that it is already closed :-(
I would also be up for this, is registration already closed or simply hasn't opened yet?
Definitely in for this one, I'm very looking forward to it.
0 · March 5, 2013
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