David Anderson on "Predictability­, planning and release planning in Kanban"

Kanban and No Estimates: how to use probabilistic forecasting for predictability, planning and commitments.

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  • Dan B.

    @KanbanDan: If anyone was desperate to see my reach for the stars - the deck is on slideshare. http://t.co/9W818TTG6d #lsug

    1 · June 13, 2013

    • Sean

      Thanks very much Dan. I'll definitely have a Dig through

      June 16, 2013

  • Rudiger W.

    Good content and presentation.

    June 16, 2013

  • Paul T.

    Raised lots of questions. Flow efficiency was the biggest take away for me

    June 16, 2013

  • Shahzad H.

    The presentation was good, but we didn't get the opportunity to ask questions. There are quite a few open ended questions that I would like share, if anyone is wiling to answer.

    1. How the "No Estimates" & probabilistic forecasting" would work for the new project(s)?, as there will be no historic data to count the number of items. So is it wise to just start work without estimating? And how can we be sure that an item we are picking is really really really wanted by the customer?

    2. If sprint planning is a waste, so as product backlog grooming, at what point we will discuss the non-technical & technical aspects of a user story. At what point the collaboration is taking place?

    Regarding flow efficiency, I think the presentation was based on ideal scenarios, but realistically speaking, there are too many factors that could affect the flow efficiency and other things.

    Any thoughts anyone?

    June 14, 2013

    • Duncan E.

      I was interested by the 2 commit points and the idea that backlog prioritisation is waste. It's common for multiple stakeholders with separate interests to request features from a single team, and maintaining a priority before the first commit point can be misleading and even cause dismay as people see their medium-value request perpetually treading water, 10th in the queue as higher value work jumps ahead of it... Any tips on sending the right message here?

      June 14, 2013

    • Shahzad H.

      Thanks all for the input. It's interesting to know your views. @Dan: I'll give you a shout if the need arises

      June 15, 2013

  • Andy C.

    However this isn't the whole story, even though it is the key practical message for management. Another relevant measure is resource efficiency (the amount of time each resource is actively adding value). If this is relatively high more productive programmers could have a positive impact on throughput (not necessarily Lead Time). However improving Resource Efficiency is generally not the right emphasis for management, because of its impact on flow. Paradoxically the optimum throughput and lead time will be achieved when both Process Efficiency and Resource Efficiency is less than 1. This is because to get Process Efficiency to 1 you have to have resources waiting for items. To get Resource Efficiency to 1 you have to have items waiting for resources. Both of these states are generally undesirable.

    June 14, 2013

  • Andy C.

    I would have been interested to follow up on the impact of replacing your developers with ones that are 10 times more productive - a most interesting and entirely hypothetical discussion. As David said if your Process Efficiency is 2% the impact on Lead Time of the new efficient team would only be 1.8% - roughly 2%. In this case focusing on the productivity of developers is the wrong focus for management. Instead look at where those wait states are and reduce the WIP. You may be able to dramatically improve delivery of business value without any improvement in development skills. This is a lesson still to be learned by most development and project managers.

    June 14, 2013

  • Mike

    Full house and interesting

    1 · June 14, 2013

  • Duncan E.

    I took away some good stuff, especially how to measure flow efficiency. Good refresher on the other stats. 12 years on those wednesday morning stats lectures at uni have finally paid off :-)

    June 14, 2013

  • Helen W.

    Fascinating talk, very thought provoking... I now have loads of idea!

    June 14, 2013

  • A former member
    A former member

    The presentation was excellent, even if it started a bit late. I gave it a lower score as there was no opportunity to ask questions. The presentation triggered a bunch of questions in my head that I have no answers to...

    2 · June 14, 2013

  • Andy C.

    A very worthwhile evening

    June 14, 2013

  • Dan B.

    If anyone wants to know more about kanban, I'm running my LKU accredited kanban course on 1st July https://realkanban.eventbrite.co.uk/

    1 · June 14, 2013

  • James B.

    Thought provoking challenge to accepted practices

    June 13, 2013

  • Michael S.

    Hi guys, you should be able to register via the Skills Matter website now. Look forward to seeing you on Thursday!

    June 10, 2013

    • Mikey C.

      I've asked Skills Matter to add people on the waiting to the participants list. So no need to sign up again.

      June 10, 2013

    • Myriam H.

      Hi Mikey, thanks a lot for taking care of this

      June 11, 2013

  • Tim N.

    Sounds an interesting topic

    June 10, 2013

  • Myriam H.

    Tried to register at Skills Matter but says event full

    May 31, 2013

    • Alissa

      Please clarify, by signing up here does reserve a space?

      June 10, 2013

    • Mikey C.

      No it doesn't (and never did). You have to sign up on both sites.

      June 10, 2013

  • Craig S.

    Looking forward to it!

    June 10, 2013

  • Duncan E.

    I'm presuming the skills matter waiting list issue was resolved last week and is now really full? Let me know if not, or if this is an attendee-in-progress limit experiment :-)

    June 10, 2013

  • Mark S.

    Had the same issue, confirmed on here but wait listed on skills matter

    June 10, 2013

  • Eben H.

    Odd disconnect between here and skillsmatter in terms of availability. We should never have left the Square Pig.

    June 8, 2013

  • Eben H.

    Flow Flow Flow your boat.....

    June 8, 2013

  • Manav M.

    Will be good to catch-up after a long time. Not sure if the place is confirmed as Skills Matter side suggests the places are full. Another one for you Mikey!

    June 8, 2013

  • George V.

    good topic, unfortunately travelling abroad

    June 8, 2013

  • A former member
    A former member

    I have added myself to the Skills Matter waiting list.

    June 2, 2013

  • Eva

    Hope it's possible to get a place though Skills Matter says it's full...

    May 31, 2013

  • Huma I.

    Cannot seem to get past captcha on skillsmatter plus there is a waiting list. Thanks anyway

    May 31, 2013

  • Jonathan W.

    I'm signed up, thanks Mikey and Myriam for making this happen

    1 · May 31, 2013

  • Mikey C.

    Sign ups are open! Apologies for the delay. More details on the talk to follow.

    May 30, 2013

  • Myriam H.

    Hi Mikey, I think I can get us a venue. Could you please get in contact to advise the details in terms of number of attendees expected, and so forth? Thanks

    May 29, 2013

  • Myriam H.

    I didn't know there was a problem with the venue, I would have offer to assist earlier. Really thought it was more a matter of confirm David's calendar.

    May 24, 2013

  • Myriam H.

    Hi Mikey, I can try to get a venue, can't confirmed that though but I could give it a try. Would that help?

    May 24, 2013

  • Mikey C.

    It just hasn't opened yet - were having some issues with Sills Matter. They double booked us and our room is gone :(

    May 24, 2013

  • Jonathan W.

    I'm guessing as Myriam posted in March that it is already closed :-(

    May 24, 2013

  • Jonathan W.

    I would also be up for this, is registration already closed or simply hasn't opened yet?

    May 24, 2013

  • Myriam H.

    Definitely in for this one, I'm very looking forward to it.

    March 5, 2013

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