Snow Alert in Lowlands by Fri/Sat

From: Jim M
Sent on: Monday, November 15, 2010 8:44 AM
Hey Gang,

There are many resources for upcoming weather forecasts, but none are as detailed as you will see below in last night's most recent Northwest Powder Alert.


Eventhough there are over 5,000 Skiers around the Pacific Northwest subscribed to SkiWashington.com's Powder Alert, there are likely a lot in this Ski Meetup Group that are not familiar with it. Today's Powder Alert (below) is not posted on SkiWashington's website until a day or two after Larry sends it out to his subscriber list! Skiers only get updates via email. Even though SkiWashington's site is undergoing a facelift, the link to sign up for the Powder Alerts is at the bottom of the link's page under "Sign Up".

Larry Schick has been a local meteorologist in this area for decades, and a avid ski bum whenever the weather decides to dump! Larry founded the "Powder Alert" several years back (through SkiWashington.com) to send out fair warning to ski bums across the Northwest on which days to plan on calling in sick! When a good dump of powder is highly likely, several days in advance, Larry will inform local skiers which resort areas its going to fall hardest, the quality of snow, how low snowfall elevations will be, & how much to expect each day of the storm(s).

Larry used to be one of the weathermen on King5 TV and Northwest Cable News. He now is with the Army Core of Engineers, because he's only busy when the weather is warm enough to flood. When its cold enough to snow, he can call in sick and head for the hills!

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POWDER ALERT SENT TODAY
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Larry Schick Powder Alert
November 14
Sunday 6:36PM
La Nina Pattern - Cascade Snow Ahead


Long range computer models indicate an evolving La Nina induced weather pattern. The hallmark of La Nina for the NW is cool and wet -- which translates to abundant , quality Cascade snow.

A La Nina winter will tend to nudge the storm track toward a cool and wet pattern. This is what I am seeing develop toward the middle and end of the week ahead. La Nina global circulation patterns over the North Pacific will favor this pattern during the winter. It does not mean the pattern will be continuous all winter. We will see this La Nina character come in surges - especially later in December January and February.

This week, a low pressure off the BC coast will couple with arctic air well to the north of the low. The system will slide south near Washington state with lowering snow levels and new snowfall.

Right now :(depending on slope, aspect & elevation) We have a trace/ or nothing to probably 1-3 ft (upper elevations, north facing slopes). As stated before, we usually need 2-5 feet to open, as a minimum.

Later this week: I am confident in the "cold " part of this pattern coming up. Snow levels will drop from 3000 feet on Wednesday down to 500ft Friday and Saturday. I am struggling with how much snow will fall , but I am sure everything that does fall on the ski slopes will be snow. Right now I'd guess ( Wed-Sat) 6-18" new, minimum -- upside potential: 1- 3ft is not unreasonable.


Larry Schick

Grand Pubah of Powder

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