Skeptics of Tucson Message Board › Collection of the doomsday 2012 discussions

Collection of the doomsday 2012 discussions

Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 96
I'm going to collect the independent threads on the doomsday 2012 discussions here in one place. Feel free to add to the discussions.
Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 97
Time of the sixth sun - 2012
Close to new replies Pin this discussion Start a new discussion Track this discussion Add a reply Marylynn Posted Sep 2, 2008 1:36 AM Link to this discussion Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 34
http://www.youtube.co...­.

Edited by Marylynn on Sep 2, 2008 1:38 AM
Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 98
Magnetic field
Close to new replies Pin this discussion Start a new discussion Track this discussion Add a reply 1 2
Marylynn Posted Aug 27, 2008 3:47 AM Link to this discussion Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 15
It is agreed that the Earth's magnetic field is declining. According to Professor Bannerjee of the Univ. of New Mexico, the field has lost up to half its intensity in the last 4000 years.

The geological record is like one big book whose sedimentary pages record the events of their day. Magnetic pole reversals leave their mark in the sea floor's spreading ridges, where once molten rock's iron particles aligned to the north pole as the lava cooled and hardened. Today, through core samples, we can "read" that the magetic orientation to North shows periodic 180 degree flipping. Over a period of 76 million years, 171 reversals are recorded; nine of them in past 4 million years. The magnetic flip-flop occurs very quickly once Earth's magnetic field has diminished near the Zero Point, then slowly builds up again.

From the forward to Awakening to Zero Point by Gregg Braden

Don Lacey Posted Aug 27, 2008 2:04 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 82
Here is an article from the website www.december212012.com that you referenced in another message...LINK

In the article the author states,

"The last major change in the field took place some 780,000 years ago during a magnetic reversal, although such reversals seem to occur more often on average. A flip in the north and south poles typically involves a weakening in the magnetic field, followed by a period of rapid recovery and reorganization of opposite polarity."

This is an article referenced on www.december212012.com.

It also states,

"Some studies in recent years have suggested the next reversal might be imminent, but the jury is out on that question."

Here is where the "confirmation bias" comes in. While there are some studies that suggest the reversal may be imminent, there are others that say that say not to worry. So the best I can do, since I don't know the science involved is read what I can and say, "I don't know". Someone that "wants" to believe might only believe the studies that say that the reversal is imminent but it gets worse. Now since the person that wants to believe also has a particular date in mind, he or she will assume "imminent means December 2012" because that's what they want to believe.

Now, because of this question, I've tried to learn what I can about the magnetic field of the earth, what it does, how it is created and how it is predicted to act in the future. As you might guess, there is not one consensus of opinion about this geologic feature of the planet. As with many other features, it operates on a geological scale and the time lines involved are immense. Relatively speaking we have been on this earth a very little time. Therefore, we have to rely on evidence left behind in the rocks and interpret those empirical measurements into a structure, or paradigm that fits the observations. The data is the data, but they can be misinterpreted, and have been shown to be misinterpreted in many cases.

Here's what we think we know. The Earth's magnetic field does vary and change polarities from time to time. The cycle can be as short as 5000 years or as long as 50 million years. We can't see any logic in the pattern, therefore the next flip cannot be predicted with any certainty. Apparently, the last cycle was short and the one that we're on is twice as long (so far). A decline in magnetic field strength could portend the coming reversal and we've lost about 10% of the field strength in the past 150 years. That would indicate that we might be due for a pole reversal but not one of the scientist will predict when that will be with any precision.

How do we get from, "wouldn't it be interesting if the magnetic pole shift occurs on the same day that the Mayan calendar runs out?", to "It's what the Mayans predicted thousands of years ago"? We don't get there through scientific evidence. All the scientist can say at this point is that the reversal happens and it may happen in the near future.

Here's a quote from one of the web pages,

"The strength of our world's magnetic field has been diminishing for the past 300 years. If the Glatzmaier-Roberts model accurately simulates the processes that drive the magnetic field, the loss of strength could be an indication that a reversal is under way. This would be no surprise. On average, reversals of the Earth's magnetic field happen every 250,000 years. It's now been about 720,000 years since our last reversal. Judging from history, we know that a reversal is long overdue. But there's no need to throw away your old compasses. A reversal usually takes hundreds or thousands of years to complete" from LINK

Here's another bit of information that may not support the doomsday scenario portrayed on the www.december201221.com site...The loss of the magnetic field, may not be that big of a deal.

Remember, digging for more information, is not burying one's head in the sand.

Marylynn Posted Aug 28, 2008 10:50 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 19
I just picked that one website out of millions as a start. It isn't the best or worst on the topic. Since the event takes place in the future nothing is carved in stone, something is going to happen but we will all have to wait and see how it plays out. I am not a scientist and this is not my research that I'm defending. At least now you are aware of the situation and can deal with it any way you like. The only thing you can change is your attitude about it.

Don Lacey Posted Aug 29, 2008 10:21 AM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 84
I doubt that the event you speak of will happen on December 21, 2012. So far, I've seen no credible evidence to support an event happening on that date. I'm a skeptic. Show me the specific scientific evidence that makes December 21, 2012 special.

Jim Lippard Posted Aug 29, 2008 1:33 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 4873956
Phoenix, AZ
Post #: 119
"It is agreed that the Earth's magnetic field is declining. According to Professor Bannerjee of the Univ. of New Mexico, the field has lost up to half its intensity in the last 4000 years."

Actually, this is not agreed--the dipole component of the field has decreased relatively recently, but the total magnetic field strength has remained essentially constant.

http://www.talkorigin...­.

Marylynn Posted Aug 29, 2008 1:45 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 21
It doesn't matter if you believe the "end times" are here or not. You'll fry like the rest of us when the sh** hits the fan 12/21/12.
Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 99
Don Lacey Posted Aug 29, 2008 2:22 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 85
Saying it loud or with emphasis doesn't make it so. Skeptics are not going to accept the world ending scenario without something credible. I was told as a kid that if I stepped on a crack, I'd break my mother's back. A girl friend wouldn't look at a pot on the stove because a "watched pot never boils". We know these things are not true because of our life experience and logic. These claims are easy to prove wrong. This future event will be proven wrong too but we have to wait over four years (instead of the four minutes it would take to show that a watched pot does indeed boil).

This reply, "It doesn't matter if you believe the "end times" are here or not. You'll fry like the rest of us when the sh** hits the fan 12/21/12." is not very skeptical. It's a little like "Just wait, you'll see"...

Now, I'll have to step in here and moderate a little. Let's keep the discussions going but let's try and be factual and constructive.

I'd like to get to the source of all this 2012 stuff. Sure there are a lot of things that may happen in the future: the Wyoming Caldera, magnetic pole reversal, global warming, asteroid collision, etc. We can query our scientists and do the research but as far as I know none of the research is going to give such a specific date (and time).

Please answer this question: What evidence do you have that shows that December 21, 2012 is THE date? If you say you read it in a book, cite the book, the author, and the page number so we can check it out. Don't expect for us to take your word for it.

Also, don't confuse a skeptical attitude with negativity or being stubborn. I'm neither, I just want to base my beliefs on verifiable facts and logical inferences, not on mystic hooey. Given the facts, I could change my mind. What would it take to change yours?

Marylynn Posted Aug 30, 2008 7:07 AM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 18
Why don't you give me some names of scientists that you trust? That would be a lot easier than listing millions of websites and reading tons of books and articles. 335 million sites about this and you don't think there's something going on here? Whether the date is 100% accurate is immaterial. It's going to happen. I just wanted to warn people that had no clue. I never bothered to mention what would happen if enough people raised their consciousness and changed the vibrational level of the planet. That's too new agey.

Don Lacey Posted Aug 30, 2008 10:40 AM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 86
In every response, I've posted specific links that back up the information. Jim has done the same even though the burden of proof belongs to the person making the claim. You've made claim after claim but when pressed to answer a specific question, you sidestep it and add another improvable claim into the mix. You must know that this gets us nowhere and frustrates meaningful conversation. If you have a rational reason to believe the way you do, share it.

For example, I've asked many times to tell me where the date December 21, 2012 comes from. Now you claim that the date isn't important. Something made you pick the date. What was it? Let us know and we can evaluate it ourselves. "Trust me, It's going to happen" doesn't get it with skeptics. We've chosen to live a rational, logical life and not believe things just because someone "says so".

There once was a time that millions believed the earth to be flat and that the sun revolved around the earth. We were at the center of the universe but those beliefs changed when a few folks started looking further. Now you'd be hard pressed to find a handful of folks who believe those things. They're around but they are mostly on the lunatic fringe.

335 million sites can be trumped by one educated man with the tools and the data that logically refutes the claim.

If your mission is to warn people wouldn't you want to make sure that the warnings are valid?

Marylynn Posted Aug 30, 2008 10:52 AM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 20
OK point taken. I will find some irrefutable proof. BTW Gregg Braden, author, lecturer, was a senior computer systems designer for Martin Marietta Aerospace, computer geologist for Phillips Petroleum, and technical operations manager for Cisco Systems. For more than 20 years he has searched mountain villages, monasteries, ancient temples, and forgotten texts to uncover their timeless secrets. He is considered a leading authority on bridging the wisdom of our past with the science of our future. What's wrong with his credentials? I know most of you are also atheists so I didn't even bother bringing in the Bible to this discussion but read the book of revelations sometime and get back to me. It doesn't say when but it says how the world will end. 12/21/12 is the last day of the Mayan calendar. That's where it came from but there is more to the story.

Edited by Marylynn on Aug 30, 2008 10:58 AM
Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 100
Jim Lippard Posted Aug 31, 2008 10:45 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 4873956
Phoenix, AZ
Post #: 127
There's nothing wrong with his credentials if you want him to manage your IT computer systems, but he's got no science credentials and the stuff he writes shows he's no scientist.

The Wikipedia article on the Mayan calendar says that 12/21/2112 comes from Jose Arguelles, the guy who was behind the Harmonic convergence, and that mainstream Mayan scholars say Arguelles' conclusions about catastrophe are drawn from a misinterpretation.

http://en.wikipedia.o...­.

The Wikipedia page on Mesoamerican Long Count calendar dates says that there are Mayan calendar inscriptions showing dates beyond 2012. The current long count cycle ends on December 20, 2012, so that's where the date comes from.

http://en.wikipedia.o...­.

There are some interesting quotes from Mayan scholars there:

Despite the publicity generated by the 2012 date, Susan Milbrath, curator of Latin American Art and Archaeology at the Florida Museum of Natural History, stated that "We [the archaeological community] have no record or knowledge that [the Maya] would think the world would come to an end" in 2012.[12]

"For the ancient Maya, it was a huge celebration to make it to the end of a whole cycle," says Sandra Noble, executive director of the Foundation for the Advancement of Mesoamerican Studies, Inc. in Crystal River, Florida. To render December 21, 2012, as a doomsday or moment of cosmic shifting, she says, is "a complete fabrication and a chance for a lot of people to cash in."[13]

"There will be another cycle," says E. Wyllys Andrews V, director of the Tulane University Middle American Research Institute (MARI). "We know the Maya thought there was one before this, and that implies they were comfortable with the idea of another one after this." [14]

Marylynn Posted Aug 31, 2008 11:00 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 31
I hope it's all a mistake but I'll be ready either way. Just wanted you to be too.

Jim Lippard Posted Sep 1, 2008 6:59 AM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 4873956
Phoenix, AZ
Post #: 129
The significance of the end of the cycle of the Mayan calendar is about the same as the significance of Y2K or the end of the Unix epoch--it's just an artificial end of a particular system of counting that has no correspondence to anything in the natural world.

Unix is a popular computer operating system; dates and times are stored on Unix systems as the number of seconds since midnight UTC on January 1, 1970. When stored as a 32-bit number, that means the last date/time that can be represented (32 bits of 1's) is January 19, 2038, 03:14:07 UTC, at which time the clock rolls back over to January 1, 1970.

http://en.wikipedia.o...­.
Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 97
Planet X video
Close to new replies Pin this discussion Start a new discussion Track this discussion Add a reply Marylynn Posted Aug 30, 2008 1:01 PM Link to this discussion Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 30
http://www.metacafe.c...­.

Don Lacey Posted Aug 31, 2008 12:34 AM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 87
Not much you can sink your teeth into. Just a bunch of hooey.
Please, let's keep these posts contained in one thread. As much as I like seeing the board in use, this multitute of threads on the same topic are trashing up the space.

Marylynn Posted Aug 31, 2008 11:03 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 32
You can delete them all now. I'm done.

Jim Lippard Posted Sep 1, 2008 6:50 AM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 4873956
Phoenix, AZ
Post #: 128
The video doesn't work for me.

Looks like the Nibiru/Planet X talk began with Zecharia Sitchin, which had no connection with 2012 until somebody more recently combined pseudoscience theories. Sitchin himself has never said that Nibiru (which there's *zero* evidence of its existence, and evidence against) is on a collision course with earth. He says it's home to some alien civilization that visited earth in the past, which he claims is recorded in Sumerian and Babylonian myth.
Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 97
indiadaily.com
Close to new replies Pin this discussion Start a new discussion Track this discussion Add a reply Marylynn Posted Aug 30, 2008 11:57 AM Link to this discussion Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 24
2012 - will earth's crust become violent?
India Daily Technology Team
Nov. 28, 2006


According to some geologists and scientists, we are sitting on top the earth’s crust that is ready to provide violent shifts all over the world.
The biggest problem, according to sources is that the tectonic plate shifts have increased the number of serious earthquakes in the past one-year an enormous amount and the rate is exponentially increasing. Scientists are blaming the Polar reversal and these will continue till 2012.Very rarely the Sun and the Earth simultaneously reverses polarity. That is exactly what is happening now. When this happens catastrophes happen in the earth. If history is a guide of anything, these earthquakes and volcanoes will continue to increase till 2012.
A periodic moderate earthquake reminds of a systematic tectonic disturbance in Northern Sumatra for the last one year. Many now are predicting that either a major cataclysmic event has been avoided or initiated. The same is happening in Western and Northwestern America, More than 600 small earthquakes have been registered in these areas.
According to scientists, all hot spots – Sumatra. Yellowstone and many others are showing signs of extreme disturbance – even harmonic tremors.
According to some, we are really sitting in front of a series of very catastrophic series of earthquakes all over the world.
According to some scientists, these increasing smaller earthquakes are the results of covert experiments of the countries or experiments of the extraterrestrials.
No one knows whether these speculations are correct. But the tectonic tremors recorded all over says that no matter who is behind it, something nasty is forming in the plate tectonics.

Don Lacey Posted Aug 31, 2008 2:42 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 93
"According to some scientists, these increasing smaller earthquakes are the results of covert experiments of the countries or experiments of the extraterrestrials."

This is about as scientific as Peter Pan.

Enough !
Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 97
Clock Countdown
Close to new replies Pin this discussion Start a new discussion Track this discussion Add a reply Marylynn Posted Aug 30, 2008 12:36 PM Link to this discussion Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 26
http://www.aboutendof...­.

Don Lacey Posted Aug 31, 2008 2:35 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 92
Quite frankly, another waste of time.
Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 97
Sound advice
Close to new replies Pin this discussion Start a new discussion Track this discussion Add a reply Marylynn Posted Aug 30, 2008 10:38 AM Link to this discussion Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 19
I can't scientifically prove something that hasn't happened yet. Einstein, Tesla and Carl Sagan are dead. None of the newer ones are willing to stick their necks out on this one yet. Maybe when we get a new president. You can bet the Bushes have a really nice fallout shelter to go to.

Whatever you believe, it wouldn't hurt to start hoarding canned goods when they go on sale for around 3 for $1. Food prices are only going to go higher in the future. My personal favorite is Progresso Italian wedding soup. Buy soup, fruit, veggies, beans, rice, pasta, whatever you really like. Also buy a lot of bottled water. Before December, 2012 buy, rent or convert your house to total solar power. http://www.earth4ener...­. Get solar shields for the windows. Reserve the book Man vs Wild, Survival Techniques from the library. They have 11 copies. Or other good survival books. BTW I tried to grow my own vegetables this year, had 6 tomato plants, 4 zucchini. No fruit from any of them. They flowered but there were no bees to pollinate them. Do I need a scientist to tell me when the bees disappear so will the food supply? No, I proved it to myself.

Edited by Marylynn on Aug 30, 2008 1:53 PM

Don Lacey Posted Aug 31, 2008 11:33 AM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 89
Marylynn you said, "I can't scientifically prove something that hasn't happened yet". That's really the point here. A skeptic doesn't believe something that can't be shown scientifically to have some basis in fact. Einstein, Tesla, and Carl Sagan wouldn't help you or your deluded brethren to spread the fairy tale about death and destruction coming in 2012. You see they were scientists and they dealt with reality as they saw it. They worked hard at seeing the real world and if they predicted the future, their predictions involved what we would discover as our knowledge and techniques improved.

No harm in storing up supplies as long as not everyone tries and creates artificial shortages. Remember when Johnny Carson created a toilet paper shortage?

As far as a shortage of bees being your gardening problem...look elsewhere. We have plenty of bees. I had to remove two hives in the past 6 months from under the eaves of my house.
Don L.
AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 97
The Sun does a flip
Close to new replies Pin this discussion Start a new discussion Track this discussion Add a reply Marylynn Posted Aug 30, 2008 12:52 PM Link to this discussion Edit Delete Quote in reply

user 5850899
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 27
http://science.nasa.g...­.

Don Lacey Posted Aug 31, 2008 1:48 PM Link to this reply Edit Delete Quote in reply

AZAtheist
Group Organizer
Tucson, AZ
Post #: 91
Another science based reference! Once again, no dire predictions...it's business as usual on our own life giving star. Our models were developed over time using sophisticated equipment and highly educated scientists. These are the people that have the best predictions, not the psychics and new age philosophers.

Keep it about the science, and you'll see how much hooey this 2012 doomsday scenario represents.
Powered by mvnForum

People in this
Meetup are also in:

Sign up

Meetup members, Log in

By clicking "Sign up" or "Sign up using Facebook", you confirm that you accept our Terms of Service & Privacy Policy