David
dr78
Group Organizer
San Diego, CA
Post #: 1
At the Meetup, I mentioned 'black swans,' which are unpredictable and extremely impactful events or phenomena (e.g. September 11, the internet, etc.). The book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" delves into this concept. The link below is from a Malcolm Gladwell article in which he profiles the book's author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Taleb's black swan philosophy.

How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy

http://www.gladwell.c...­

The world is full of randomness and uncertainty so sometimes it's futile to try to make sense of it or plan for the future. In regards to the stimulus package, I'm optimistic that we will recover, however I don't know how or when it will happen. Whatever the ultimate solution will be, I'm sure it will be a black swan.
John Van P.
JohnVP
London, GB
Post #: 18
Thanks for the link, David. I am going to print out the article...it looks interesting.

Taleb's earlier book, Fooled By Randomness, is also very good. In a nutshell, he grapples with the fact that in some fields, such as investing, and management (including management of the economy?) it is almost or totally impossible to distinguish between skill and luck.

John
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