Title: Nonresponse Modeling in Repeated Independent Surveys in a Closed Stable Population—Did the Local Election Officials (LEOs) Roar in 2012?
• Speakers: Tim Markham and Eric Falk, Defense Manpower Data Center, and Fritz Scheuren, NORC
• Chair: TBA
• Date/Time: Wednesday, July 17, 12:30 p.m. to 2:00 p.m.
• Sponsor: Washington Statistical Society Methodology Section
• Location: New Offices of Mathematica-MPR, 1101 First Street NE, 12th Floor, Washington DC 20002, near L Street, north of Union Station
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In the past, models of survey unit nonresponse typically were implicit (for example, Oh and Scheuren 1983). If nonresponse was sizable, then adjustments were made. These generally employed some form of a missing-at-random model (for example, Rubin 1983). One such model (Zhang and Scheuren 2011), explicit this time, is discussed in our presentation.
This presentation is a follow-up to one given in June 2012 and the application is to large repeated independent cross-section samples from a closed population. The units are voting jurisdictions, which are required to report on the details of each national election within a reasonable period afterwards. The survey was conducted in 2008, 2010, and 2012 and was initially administered to the local election official to gather individual jurisdictional information. The response rate for these initial surveys was relatively low. For the 2012 survey the state election officials in many states were used to gather information at the jurisdiction level. This led to higher response rates in 2012 but still the non-ignorable nonresponse must be addressed. This talk discusses how this problem might be handled statistically going forward and currently at the evaluation stage.