Andrew
user 3078346
Tacoma, WA
Post #: 141
Wow – I can see limiting India to 8 but giving The Ottomans $9 seems like overkill. I think the game is completely balanced at an 8 troop limit for India; in fact it might be in favor of the Central Powers at 8. That has such huge ramifications no other change is necessary.

The Ottomans start with 29 troops and add 6 more for Bulgaria for a total of 35. Add in a Buy of 5 and there are 40 Ottoman troops by the end of Round 1 in Theater. In addition you could add 4 troops in for the defense of Persia for a total of 44. The Ottomans will have the ability to buy 6 units a Turn pretty much the entire game based on a limited India.

The British start with 17 in Theater and you could add 2 for Arabia. Add in a Buy of 8 and it is a total of 27 units by the end of Round 1. That is down a full 17 troops from The Ottomans. Unless the British get additional help they cannot hope to catch up to The Ottomans now without troops coming from elsewhere with just a 2 troop advantage per Buy. (Compared to a 10-12 Buy before so they could catch up in 4 Turns). Looking at the game last night I do not see how the Allies can send any additional forces to the Middle East. They need every troop they have on the Continent. So the only reinforcements coming are those French and UK troops left over after killing all the German troops in Africa.

So perhaps by Turn 5 there are 5 leftovers from Africa heading towards Egypt and with a 2 Buy advantage that is 10 more so 10+5=15 so the UK has almost caught up by Turn 5. All that does is make it even which was my point. By limiting India to 8 you make the Middle East a stalemate. The Ottomans are probably at $19 (Start 16, plus 6 for Bulgaria, Arabia and Egypt, minus 3 for a contested Mesopotamia) and bringing in 6 units a Turn going forward and we are limiting India to 8 so basically The Ottomans should be able to hold their position long enough for the game to be decided elsewhere; which is what we were trying to do. In fact based just on this Theater I would prefer to be The Ottomans than the British. The Ottomans have the advantage because they can get all of their troops into battle by Turn 4 whereas the British are still trying to catch up till Turn 5 and once established the Ottomans are on defense which is an advantage. In fact 8 might be too low; perhaps it needs to be 9.
Andrew
user 3078346
Tacoma, WA
Post #: 142
The reason for that is in all of the other Theaters the Central Powers already have the advantage and the Russian Revolution rule makes life very difficult for the Russians. I can see an excellent chance for the Central Powers to force a Russian Revolution by Turn 5. If so they should win the game. Why you ask?

If the Russian Revolution occurs by Turn 5 then we can assume the Central Powers are at 95.
Austria 26 + 10 (Albania, Serbia, Romania, Ukraine) - 0 = 36
Germany 35 + 9 (Belgium, Poland, Belarus, Karelia) - 4 (Africa) = 40
Ottomans 16 + 6 (Egypt, Arabia, Bulgaria) - 3 (Mesopotamia) = 19

The Allies are now at 94:
Russia = 0
France 24 + 6 (Portugal, 4 from Africa) - 2 (Lorraine) = 28
British 30 + 6 (Persia, 4 from Africa) - 2 (Egypt) = 34
Italy 14 + 0 - 2 (Venice) = 12
USA 20 + 0 - 0 = 20

These figures do not count a possible take of Finland and Switzerland and a contest of Piedmont which would make it 98 vs 91 in favor of the Central Powers. Even without these very doable additions I would take the Central Powers every time collecting $1 more but consolidated into two main Powers, Italy isolated and at the mercy of Austria and the UK and US having to deliver troops by transport.

In fact I would say limiting India to 8 gives the game to the Central Powers except I have not looked at what the British can do to stop a Russian Revolution with the little money they would not be diverting to India. I think very little. The Germans have an excellent chance of sinking the entire British Navy on Turn 1 (93% North Sea and 78% Off Canada) which means the British have no transports. Assuming the French can either sink the remaining German Navy or at least protect the newly built British transports (build 2 maybe?) then the British should be able to get 6 and possibly 8 troops to Karelia by Turn 4; is that really going to stop the Russian Revolution? I don’t know yet.


D.K.Maclaren
D.K.Maclaren
Group Organizer
West Linn, OR
Post #: 409
When Andrew Says "I don't know yet" ...that's a fairly good recommendation that we should try the 8 unit (7inf,1art) max house rule for india. I am all for anything that makes Andrews "mechanical" mind skip a gear...lol
Kyle E.
user 12644962
West Linn, OR
Post #: 36
No one (other than Paul) has mentioned one very likely scenario with the Russian Revolution rule and it's relevance to a limited India.

Let's pretend that the CPs outplay the Russian player a little and force the revolution with fairly low casualties (I won't assume a turn). Many if not most of the CP troops will be very close (3 spaces) to India and pretty far from any other enemy territories. The Ottomans will not be alone in their fight against India anymore and instead of talking about Mesopotamia being contested we're talking about maybe India being contested.

This being said, limiting India to 8 feels right to me and I can't wait to see how it balances.

Of course if the Russian player fights to the last man causing many CP casualties AND manages to survive past round five then I don't think the Ottomans are getting much help. I would assume a stalemate in the middle east.
Andrew
user 3078346
Tacoma, WA
Post #: 143
I think limiting India to 8 units period is fine, not sure it has to be 7 infantry and 1 artillery. Certainly a Russian Revolution early with low casualties is a disaster for the Allies no matter where the units are. In fact a Russian Revolution on or before Turn 5 is a disaster as far as I can tell. Every scenario I have run so far if the British have only moved as far as Mesopotamia by the time the Russian Revolution occurs the Central Powers will be collecting $2-$5 more a Round than the Allies and thus win handily.
Andrew
user 3078346
Tacoma, WA
Post #: 144
So I realized that when I said the battle in the North Sea was 93% I forgot to take into account the Naval Mines. I don’t have a calculator that can represent that so I had to do the math the hard way so please do not hold me to these numbers. Also note that I could only figure it out for 1 hit, either on the battleship, cruisers or submarines and not two or more hits. Since 20% of the time two or more hits occur then these numbers are slightly inflated.

So no hits 40% of the time, at least one hit 60% of the time and 20% of the time 2 or more hits. Spreading the hit out amongst the 5 possible casualties it comes out as an 83% chance of victory. Lower if the 20% chance comes up of course.

Therefore people may send all the subs there to make sure the British Home Fleet is destroyed and to have as many German Naval Units survive as possible so using the same parameters for an all out attack it comes out as no hits 28% of the time, at least one hit 72% of the time and 2 or more 40% of the time. Again I do not know how to determine two or more hits so 40% of the time it will be worse than this. Spreading the hit out amongst the 7 possible casualties it comes out as a 98.5% chance of victory. Lower of course 40% of the time but I would bet at least a 90% plus chance whereas with only 5 units I bet it is just under 80%.
Andrew
user 3078346
Tacoma, WA
Post #: 145
Has anyone tried causing the Russian Revolution?

In the scenarios I am coming up with the Central Powers can create the Russian Revolution 66% of the time on Turn 5. The only way to stop this I can come up with is to split the Russian army to contest one of the three areas next to Moscow and Moscow itself. That however allows the Germans to wipe out the Russian troops and get a conquest by Turn 7 which I think is even worse than a Revolution on Turn 5.

Has anyone figured out how to stop the Revolution?

It seems to me the only way is to contest the Germans in Poland but then either the Austrians can cause it on the Eastern side of the board or take Moscow or the Germans just wipe out the Poland troops after three Turns and move on Moscow.

Perplexing. If that is the case the Allies may have to ignore India after all and help Russia against Germany.
Erik S
user 9748771
West Linn, OR
Post #: 63
There is only one way stop it I think, don't use the rule. It is optional after all. If it used I don't think there is any way it can be stopped, unless the brits help out via india (if your not using the house rules. They are hard pressed to help out before turn 5. I think it is inevitable the revolution happens, the way the game is set up.
Kyle E.
user 12644962
West Linn, OR
Post #: 37
That's what I have been hankering to test out. To see what the Allies can do to stop Russia from falling early enough to cost them the game. If Russia turtles, Revolution happens easily which is obviously bad for the allies. If they are aggressive they lose the capitol (although it's bloody). India is four spaces from Moscow, and with enough transports England is only two spaces away. England could reinforce Russia without too much effort but would it be big enough fast enough? Would the pressure taken off the Ottomans be enough to swing the balance toward the CPs?

I have been wondering with the Revolution rules if maybe the CPs actually stand a decent chance without house rules. Again can't wait to test this some more. Good points Andrew and thanks for crunching the numbers on the sea battle.
Andrew
user 3078346
Tacoma, WA
Post #: 146
I just finished a test game and the Allies won. The Central Powers were able to cause the Russian Revolution on Turn 5 however the Russians did so much damage the Central Powers could not recover. At the time of the Revolution it was 97 vs 91 in favor of the Allies. Fairly close but the Allies had a stranglehold on the Ottomans while Italy was still holding though weak and France was very strong and holding easily against the Germans.

One interesting point was the Central Powers could have taken Russia no Turn 6 however due to the British pushing up from India and 16 US troops moving towards Karelia it actually made more sense to cause the Revolution otherwise the Allies would have liberated Russia and there were no Central Powers follow on forces to capture it again.

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