The Buffalo Boardgames Meetup Group Message Board › Statistical Analysis.

Statistical Analysis.

Doug
SuburbnBubbleBoy
East Amherst, NY
Post #: 196
Let me preface this post by saying that I am not a smart person and fiddling around with numbers usually doesnt sound like a good time to me. However when I saw this geek list, I was intrigued by the idea. Basically its a way of using BoardGameGeeks features to statistically figue out what games you might like. Since I have plenty of time whilst I wait for the phone people to quit ramming around in my server room, I decided to crunch some numbers. What I found was a bit surprising.....

**note**
The GeekList states that you should use all games you have rate 8, 9 , or 10. As I have no 10's, I used my 7, 8, and 9's and weighed appropriatly (x3 for 9's, x2 for 8's, x1 for 7's).

The 1st thing that becam apparent is that its very easy for statistical anomolies to arise. Because I rate both Bang! and Bang! Dodge City an 8, they tended to feed off of each other. Which is in part why the 1st 2 games in my list have such high scores.

Doug's Top 10 Games of Interest (as rated by a silly statistical analysis)
========================
1) Bang! (score: 233)
2) Bang! High Noon (score: 232)
3) Zombies!!! (score: 163)
4) Pirate's Cove (score: 153)
5) Heroscape (score: 133)
6) Bang! Dodge City (score:116)
7) RoboRally - Armed and Dangerous (score: 111)
8) Memoir 44 (score: 108)
9) Munchkin (score: 105)
10) Carcassonne (score: 103)

Now as you can see the 1st 2 scores are way out of line with the rest. This was casued by the stong correlation between the base set and the expansions and the fact that I rated them both so highly. In all honesty tho, Bang! showed up on no fewer than 6 of my lists. The next closest was Carcassonne with 4. So its obvious that statistically I should like Bang!which, as you know by now I do! Hey! Maybe this DOES work.

Well lets refine a bit. To try and reduce statistical anomolies caused by expansions, I am going to remove Bang! (which deserves its place rightfully, but in the interest of math...) and the expansions that are in my top 10. This gives us the following list.

Doug's Revised Top 10 Games
=====================
1) Zombies!!! (163)
2) Pirate's Cove (153)
3) Heroscape (133)
4) Memoir 44 (108)
5) Munchkin (105)
6) Carcassonne (103)
7) Chez Geek (99)
8) War of the Ring (95)
9) Battle Cry (90)
10) Betrayal at House on the Hill (86)

What Doug thinks of the Statistical analyisis of his top 10
======================================­==
1) Zombies-- Ok, I can see this being fun for maybe a half hour. This could be stretched to maybe an hour if copius amount of beer are involved. Unfortunately I hear this game takes waaaay longer than that to play. I see it as just getting downright boring. The plastic zombies are neat tho. Deserving of my top spot? I dont think so.
2) Pirate's Cove-- I didnt enjoy my 1st outing with this game. That said, Its obvious I should try it again. Maybe I jsut had a bad time cuz I could never get off of the damn Pirate Loser Island.
3) Heroscape-- I do enjoy Heroscape, my only real issue with it is the long setup/breakdown times to play the damn thing. I would like to play it more often, but its just not logistically possible.
4) Memoir 44-- This one is sopt on. I loves me some Memoir 44.
5) Munchkin-- I wouldnt give munchkin any more than an "OK" rating, and then only played with 4 people. This does not belong in my top 10.
6) Carcassonne-- I like Carcassonne. I have yet to try many of the expansion, but I like what I have played. Not sure that it should rank this high, but I can see why it does. Some of my higher rated games are tile laying games.
7) Chez Geek-- I know absolutely nothing about this game. Guess I should investigate it.
8) War of the Ring-- This one surprised me as I dont have any wargames highly rated (other than memoir 44 which dont count). I guess maybe I should muscle my way into one of Kevin and Scott's games and find out what all the fuss is about.
9) Battle Cry-- Basically a simpler version of Memoir 44 in Civil War era. I'm sure its good but I have little interst in the Civil War.
10) Betrayal-- Yup, loves me some Betrayal. I would prolly rank this higher than #10 myself, but I'm glas to see it made it this high.

Lets go one step further and use this list for what it was intended, a potential shopping list. So if I remove the games from the list that I already own, this should be my next Thoughthammer shopping list:

1) Zombies!!!
2) Pirate's Cove
3) Munchkin
4) Carcassonne
5) Chez Geek
6) War of the Ring
7) Battle Cry
8) Age of Mythology: The Boardgame
9) Talisman
10) Fearsome Floors

So how do you think I did? Not sure that I agree 100% with the above shopping list, but it was fun to tinker around with.

Incidentally there were 110 games on my list with scores from 233 (Bang!) to 5 (Acquire).

One other statistical anomoly I just noticed: While RoboRally - Armed and Dangerous scored a whopping 111, the base RoboRally game scored a 7 (ranked #109 of 110). wink
Doug
SuburbnBubbleBoy
East Amherst, NY
Post #: 197
Just as a point of interest, My Thoughthammer wishlist contains the following items (in alphabetical order):

1) Alhambra
2) Battlestations
3) Category 5 (A.K.A. 6 NIMMIT!)
4) Dungeoneer: Den of the Wererats
5) Dungeoneer: Haunted Woods of Malthorin
6) Dungeoneer: Tomb of the Lich Lord
7) Dungeoneer: Dragons of the Forsaken Desert
8) Scream Machine
9) Tichu
10) Verflixxt

Wow.......not even in the ballpark... biggrin
bobbie8153
bobbie8153
Buffalo, NY
Post #: 127
you are bored!! poor baby!
A former member
Post #: 82
Let me preface this post by saying that I am not a smart person and fiddling around with numbers usually doesnt sound like a good time to me. However when I saw this geek list, I was intrigued by the idea.

And I thought I was the only one geeky enough to have done this. I should have known.

<snip>

Doug's Revised Top 10 Games
=====================
1) Zombies!!! (163)
2) Pirate's Cove (153)
3) Heroscape (133)
4) Memoir 44 (108)
5) Munchkin (105)
6) Carcassonne (103)
7) Chez Geek (99)
8) War of the Ring (95)
9) Battle Cry (90)
10) Betrayal at House on the Hill (86)
With the possible exception of Chez Geek (which I dont know either), I can see you enjoying almost every one of the games on this list. Obviously you love Mem 44 and Betrayal. Battle Cry, as you say, is an ancestor of Mem 44, and I've already told you I think you'd like WOTR. Heroscape and Zombies, they just seem, well..., very you (for lack of an adjective). I think you may have had a bad introductory experience with Pirate's Cove. I think there's more to that game than meets the eye, like going after the black pirates. No comment on Munchkin.

I did a similar analysis to yours, except I have 10s. I'm not as picky as you. I didn't bother to include games I already own; the same ones kept popping up over and over (similar to what happened to yours with Bang!). Here's the result:

1) Traumfabrik (181) - No surprise here. I've wanted this for quite sometime.
2) Princes of the Renaissance (158) - Looks great but I was scared away by the detail.
3) Industria (136) - I've considered this one in the past. Scared away by the not-in-English thing.
4) Magna Grecia (134) - Huh??
5) Andromeda (131) - This actually looks pretty cute. I might try to pick it up.
6) die Macher (128) - Not really looking to pay $80 for a game about German elections.
7) Ingenious (127) - Can't decide about this one. Looking grim.
8) Goldland (116) - see comment to number 3
9) Maharaja:Palace Building in India (116) - I'm looking for this in trade now.
10) Wallenstein - see comment to number 3 again


Obviously this analysis is flawed, since War of the Ring did not make the top ten. :-D It had a very meager showing at a pitiful 34.

Scott
Doug
SuburbnBubbleBoy
East Amherst, NY
Post #: 199
I must admit I am glad I wasnt the only one to do this.......
Eddyspaghetti
Eddyspaghetti
Buffalo, NY
Post #: 4
Ok, I'll have to add Chez Geek as a choice one week to play.

Someone remind me to bring it along.
Kevin
kwojtasz
Lancaster, NY
Post #: 47
Hmm... I must have done something wrong, as mine came up:

1. War of the Ring
2. War of the Ring
3. War of the Ring
4. War of the Ring
5. War of the Ring
6. War of the Ring
7. War of the Ring
8. War of the Ring
9. War of the Ring
10. War of the Ring

:-)
April
arielmt
Buffalo, NY
Post #: 70
Hmm... I must have done something wrong, as mine came up:

1. War of the Ring
2. War of the Ring
3. War of the Ring
4. War of the Ring
5. War of the Ring
6. War of the Ring
7. War of the Ring
8. War of the Ring
9. War of the Ring
10. War of the Ring

:-)

Obsessed much?
Kevin
kwojtasz
Lancaster, NY
Post #: 49
lol

Just trying to become better at WoTR so I'd do well in any future tournament play at Prezcon or the WBC. Besides, there does not seem a lack of interested opponents. :-)
bobbie8153
bobbie8153
Buffalo, NY
Post #: 133
Maybe Kevin should start a war of the ring meetup. If you are trying to practice for a tournament you might want a more diversified group other than Scott and Nick
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