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Re: [humanism-174] Re: "Has Nate Silver Destroyed Punditry?"

From: Mark T.
Sent on: Thursday, November 8, 2012 10:50 AM

Good point! From just 2 weeks ago... Gallup polls seemed to indicate that Romney was running away with it-

http://m.christianpost.com/news/presidential-polls-2012-gallup-shows-romney-with-big-lead-even-after-bowing-to-liberal-pressure--83736/

On Nov 8,[masked]:02 AM, "Greg Priddy" <[address removed]> wrote:
Someone from the Gallup organization was on PRI Marketplace yesterday, whining about how without companies like Gallup doing the actual polling, aggregators like Silver would be out of business.

If Gallup and others could find a way to make their polls more accurate, there'd be no need for aggregators.

-Greg

On Thu, 8 Nov[masked]:35:01 -0500
 Mark Tiborsky <[address removed]> wrote:
Here's a more detailed article with a neat quote- "One can be Homer and
write about the wine-dark sea, but sometimes you want the guy with the
thermometer."

http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-[masked]/
On Nov 8,[masked]:07 AM, "Mark Tiborsky" <[address removed]> wrote:

Careful analysis of statistics speaks louder than dunderheaded blather-

With its last-minute switch on Florida the crew at the Five Thirty Eigh<http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/>t
picked all 50 states correctly, although they had FL at exactly 50/50 (but
shaded blue) and they left the FL electoral votes split between Obama and
Romney.

The similar polling aggregate Votamatic <http://votamatic.org/> hit the
nail on the head (Obama 332 Romney 206) without any last-minute
corrections, and those figures were there for a week or 2.


http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/1107/Election-2012-Has-Nate-Silver-destroyed-punditry

Here's the kind of people one shouldn't listen to- mostly conservative
pundits who just blab with no data-


http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/faulty-predictions-for-election-2012/2012/11/07/4cb0a532-2914-11e2-96b6-8e6a7524553f_story.html







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