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The Signal and the Noise: predicting elections and other things with Liz Baumann

Helloooo futurists!

In the last election, we had some new pundits, most notably Nate Silver, predict the election results with astonishing accuracy -- not just who would win, but all the electoral votes, state-by-state as well. Of course this gets the attention of any self-respecting futurist, who is always on the lookout for techniques for predicting anything that happens in the future that actually work.

So for January, it's my pleasure to announce that Liz Baumann will be guiding us through various concepts and areas of application using "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't" by Nate Silver.

We will cover prediction and forecasting in such diverse areas as elections and the economy, sports and games, health and disease, weather and earthquakes. Historical and modern approaches, methodology, pros and cons of "Big Data", handling uncertainty, bias, objectivity, and examples of successes and failures will be discussed.

Liz worked in the insurance industry for 14 years as an actuary and data analyst. After taking a break for a few years to explore different kinds of technology and creativity, she is again rediscovering her analytical side and is pursuing data science.

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What: The Signal and the Noise: predicting elections and other things with Liz Baumann

Where: Boulder Public Library, George Reynolds Branch -- 3595 Table Mesa Drive (just off Broadway & Table Mesa) -- go to the back and down the stairs to the meeting room

When: Saturday, January 12th, 2012, 2pm-4pm

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Note the change in the date! We are skipping December and moving the January meeting up to the 2nd Saturday.

Also note that it's the George Reynolds branch.

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  • Dru W.

    I'll probably be there, if I don't space it. Sounds too damn interesting to miss.

    December 10, 2012

    • Wayne R.

      Thanks for the note. Hope to see you, Dru!

      January 12, 2013

  • Dru W.

    An inconsiderate friend died and the memorial is in Denver tomorrow so I'll likely be late.

    January 11, 2013

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