Tuesday, September 7, 2010 1:07 PM
I have notes on multiple indicators that I monitor to help me judge the strength and direction of the stock market. I have a page of them I plan to share at the meeting and may get some of them out to you in advance. However a summary comment that reflects my view after compiling the list appeared in my e-mail this weekend which I cannot better. The quotation below is From Mark Huard at Marketwatch service. I think it is perfect for this week. You will notice the view is contrary to the market cheerleaders promoted by the business media. It also supports the guarded market optimism I sense from IBD analysts.
"Sometimes, the stock market can be a very confusing. At other times, one need not over analyze at all. It appears that we have entered into one of those easier periods.
The economic data has been dismal, for the most part, for several weeks. More recently, there have been a few hopeful signs that the good ship U.S.A. is still sailing on a steady course to better times. Regardless of the data, it is this observer's opinion that that stock market has been trying to telegraph its intentions. Quite simply, by not going down, the stock market is providing us with the telling sign that it wants to go up.
Every now and then, it's just that plain, working like a law of physics. If the market cannot go higher after repeated attempts, then the path of least resistance is down. Conversely, when the market just will not drop, then it is almost assuredly headed up. The bears have had every excuse to drive the stock market down in 2010. Truth be told, they simply have not been able to do it. Three times this summer, the DJIA has dropped below 10,000. Each time, despite data and jobs numbers that have increasingly suggested that additional retrenchment might be in order for both the economy and share prices, the market has failed to fall any further.
If stocks won't go down, when they have every reason to do so, they are ready to go up. We have seen that phenomenon play out over the last six trading sessions. While the upside possibilities are anyone's guess, the market has spoken loudly with these three summer breaks of DJIA 10,000 that the downside is definable and limited. Certainly, declining days have not been outlawed. However, the tape has been trying to telegraph its intentions to us. And, as we all know, fighting the tape rarely proves to be a profitable investment strategy." Mark Huard.
Hey, don't give up, get determined!!