Re: [newtech-1] ?This really wasn?t what our customers were looking for?

From: Michael S.
Sent on: Friday, March 14, 2008 8:27 PM
On Mar 14, 2008, at 8:02 PM, Victor Shamanovsky wrote:

> Asif, Michael, I can see how you can think and feel the way you do  
> from where you are sitting.
> I'll bite my tonge and let it all work out for you on your own.  
> Lessons best learned that way :)
>
> p.s. I appreciate how you guys have now outgrown the cussing, baby  
> steps, eh ?

eff you. :-)


>
>
> On Fri, Mar 14, 2008 at 12:24 PM, Asif Youssuff <[address removed]>  
> wrote:
> Michael Mellinger wrote:
> > You left out the first sentence.  I think it's relevant.
> >
> > "Newsflash from ASUS - the company is predicting that the XP Home
> > version of the Eee PC will outsell the Linux-based version by 3 to  
> 2.
>  >
> > 3. They ship with Windows XP (Home Edition), which is being
> > discontinued in June.
> >
> > 4. You can always upgrade to the latest Ultimate version of Linux on
> > the Eee, but you've hit a dead-end with XP.
> >
>
> Yeah, I think the last one is really the most interesting thing about
> this, not the idea that Windows may outsell the Linux version.
>
> Anyone who is famililar with the way that the market sees OSes knows
> that Windows is a definite winner, not necessarily for technical
> reasons, but because of the major advantages one can reap from using a
> mass market OS with great support.
>
> Anyone who is a proponent of Linux that doesn't admit to this is  
> likely
> being dishonest.
>
> However, at the same time, these network effects can be effectively
> mitigated with software that inter operates with Microsoft software
> (hell, isn't that supposedly one of Microsoft's new goals?) and  
> hardware
> that is Linux compatible.
>
> The fact that the eee sold so well, even with the tremendous amount of
> advantages that Windows commands over Linux likely means one (or both)
> of two things:
>
>        For some people, the cost premium of Windows isn't worth it  
> over Linux
>
>        or
>
>        Linux is "good enough" regardless of price
>
> I'm not even thinking about people who are avowed Linux users, who
> actually prefer Linux, but rather the people who don't really care  
> what
> OS their machine runs, as long as it lets them get their work done.
>
> Linux is definitely moving forward in this direction, as sales can  
> show,
> as will simply playing with the OS on your own -- this isn't your  
> dad's
> Linux, where configuring X was a chore. It's easy to install and  
> work with.
>
> Vista is going to be a problem for Microsoft in the low end. It's so
> heavy compared to Linux, that for ultra cheap commodity hardware,  
> Linux
> may begin taking a lead. Of course, no one in the Microsoft camp is
> scared yet, since they are targeting higher earning users who buy more
> expensive machines and OSes.
>
> But for the low end, Linux based machines may start eating away at  
> what
> has traditionally been Microsoft's winning platform -- cheap hardware,
> along with easily pirated versions of Windows.
>
> What did Bill Gates say about China? something to the lines of "We  
> don't
> care about the piracy as long as they are pirating our stuff. We'll
> figure out how to make money off of them later."
>
> Well, if they start losing that segment now, imagine what happens when
> this groundswell of support from the low end begins to equate into  
> it's
> *own* network effect -- when Linux becomes better supported, and it's
> easier to get *Linux* on your expensive PC rather than dealing with an
> unfamiliar OS that doesn't run your software?
>
> I'm not saying this is going to happen overnight. But the abomination
> that is Vista on low end hardware may end up decimating Microsoft's
> market share in a segment that has traditionally been served by  
> pirated
> copies of Windows.
>
> They may not have made them money, but they helped Microsoft with  
> their
> great ecosystem.
>
> By ceding the low end in this manner, Microsoft may have quite by
> accident given Linux a leg up.
>
> -Asif
>
>
>
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