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RE: [oilawareness-67] Everything you wanted to know about peak oil

From: Samuel
Sent on: Wednesday, August 3, 2011 3:14 PM

Thanks Jojo. This is great supplementary info for a presentation I’m giving tomorrow night to the Sierra Club about a $2.5 million seed crushing and biodiesel plant I built last year in Colorado. But this email is stripped of all formatting and graphics. Could you send this as an attachment?

 

Thanks again,

Sam Anderson

 

From: [address removed] [mailto:[address removed]] On Behalf Of JOJO
Sent: Wednesday, August 03,[masked]:36 PM
To: [address removed]
Subject: [oilawareness-67] Everything you wanted to know about peak oil

 

 Sorry this took so long to send out Leon. Everyone this is everything you wanted to know about Peak oil. Feel free to forward this to any neyseyers out there. Just remember Budda says "It is impossible to wake up a man pretending to be asleep"

JOJO

Ps Thanks for putting this together Leon.

   

Peak Oil

                       

 

 

     

                          

 

 

                                                                                                                                           Leon Newton

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached,

after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.  The concept is based on the observed

production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of oil wells.

Peak Oil is not the end of oil. It is the end of cheap oil.

 

In 1956, M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil company Petroleum Geologist predicted oil production in United States would peak in 1970. Hubbert was correct; U.S. Oil Production peaked in 1970 at 11.3 million barrels/day. He also predicted world oil production would peak around the year 2000.

     

The following table lists the countries that have reached peak oil production and those that have not reached peak production.

Countries at Peak or in Decline

 

Countries not at Peak

Peak Year

Total No. of Countries

Countries

 

No. of Countries

Countries

 

[masked]

10

United States, Venezuela, Libya, other Middle East, Iran Rumania, Indonesia, Trinidad, Tobago, Iraq

 

12

China, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Azerbaijan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Sudan, Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville), Canada, Russia, India

[masked]

16

Tunisia, Peru, Other Europe, Eurasia, Cameroon, Russian Federation,

 

[masked]

24

Egypt, Syria, Gabon, Argentina, United Kingdom, Columbia, Uzbekistan,

 

[masked]

43

Australia Norway, Oman, Yemen, Other South and Central America, Malaysia, Vietnam, Denmark, Mexico Nigeria, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Saudi Arabia, Equador, Bruni,

United Arab Emirates, Angola

 

2010

42

 2010 Oil Production                 55.7 Million Barrels/Day

 

12

2010 Oil Production                                      36.3 Million Barrels/Day   

Data Source: Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

           

 

Peak production possibly occurred in July 2008; the rate of production was 87 million barrels per day and the price of oil peaked at $147 per barrel

The high cost of oil in 2008 affected economies worldwide. Within two months of the peak oil price, the US economy was on the verge of collapse. A massive loan from the Federal Government to Wall Street banking/investment houses was required to prop up the financial industry.  The automobile industry also required major loans from the U.S. government. One Automobile company declared bankruptcy. This was the start of the deepest recession since the “Great Depression”.                                                                                                          In the past decade, oil production has increased 9% while costs have increased more than 400%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hubberts Peak Chart (1956)

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Following Dr. Hubbert’s origional prediciton, a number of Petroleum Geologists,  Investment banks, Oil Companies, independent energy agencies and Governmental agencies have made predictions. Their projected dates are in the following  table.

 

 

Predictions for World Oil Production Peaking

 

Source

 

Projected Date

M. King Hubbert

Shell Geologist

Around 2000

 

 

 

Matthew Simmons

Energy Investment Banker

2005

E. T. Westervelt

US Army Corps of Engineers

2005

R. Herrera

BP Geologist (ret.)

2005

Kenneth Deffeyes

Petroleum Geologist(ret), Professor

Dec. 2005

T. Boon Pickens

Geologist, Oil & Gas Investor

[masked]

CNOOC

State owned oil company (China)

[masked]

Energy Watch Group

Independent energy experts

2006

A. Bakthiari

ASPO Italy

[masked]

Richard Heinberg

Professor, Lecturer, Writer

July, 2008

Chris Skrebowski

Editor, UK Petroleum Review

[masked]

James Tisch

CEO, Lowes Corp. (oil drilling co.)

2010

S. Wrobel

Investment Fund Manager

by 2010

R. Bentley

University Energy Analyst

around 2010

Colin Campbell

Oil Geologist, Founder ASPO

2010

Jose Sergio Gabrielli

CEO of Petrobras

2010

Energy File

Energy Consultants

[masked]

Dougless Westwood

Energy Consultant

[masked]

 

 

 

L.M. Melling

Statoil oil company geologist

around 2011

HIS Energy

Energy Consultants

[masked]

X. Pang

China University of Petroleum

around 2012

R.H.E.M Koppelar

Dutch Oil Analyst

around 2012

ASPO Netherlands

Association for the Study of Peak Oil

[masked]

PFC Energy

Energy Consultants

[masked]

A. Al-Hussenini

V.P., Saudi Aramco (ret.)

2015

Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (UK)

 

potentially by 2015

Deutsche Bank

Brokerage / Financial

around 2015

Merrill Lynch

Brokerage / Financial

around 2015

J.R. West

PFC Energy (Consultants)

[masked]

Energy Information Agency (EIA)

DOE Analysis / Information

2016 nominal case

 

 

 

Total

French Oil Company

around 2020

World Energy Council

Energy Consultants

after 2020

International Energy Agency (IEA)

Multi-governmental agency

in 2020

UBS

Brokerage / Financial

Mid to late 2020's

Shell

Oil Company

after 2025

Cambridge Energy Research Associates

Energy Consultants

Well after 2030

Peak Oil Story Timeline

To open hyperlinks select the subject – press Ctrl + Click to open link

1956  Shell Geologist M. King Hubbert made his views about peak oil known at a meeting of the American Petroleum Institute. He predicted the U.S. would reach peak oil production in 1970 and the world would reach peak production  “around 2000”. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf

1957 Admiral Hyman Rickover gave a speech to the Minn. State Medical Association “Energy Resources and our Future”. He stated the fact that fossil fuels are finite, and “are likely to peak in the first half of the 21th century”.

"Energy Resources and Our Future" - Speech by Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1957

1972 The book “Limits to growth” was published. It argued that unchecked consumption and economic growth on our finite planet was leading the Earth towards ‘overshoot’ of its carrying capacity, followed by disaster. The study focused on the variables of world population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion. Their conclusion: The end of growth would probably arrive between 2010 and 2050. http://limitstogrowth.net/

1979 President Jimmy Carter gives a speech to the nation explaining the looming energy crisis, stressing the need                            for a comprehensive energy policy. President Jimmy Carter - Address to the Nation ...

1998  Scientific American published the article “The End of Cheap Oil” by Petroleum Geologists Colin Campbell and Jean H. Laherriere. This was the first article on the subject of peak oil to be released in a national U.S. Publication.     The End of Cheap Oil, Scientific American, March 1998

 

1999 Halliburton CEO Dick Cheney, in a speech at the London School of Petroleum “Producing oil is essentially a self-depleting activity… you’ve got to find and develop reserves equal to your output just to stand still... there will be an average 2% increase in world oil demand… along with a 3% natural decline in production of natural reserves… by 2010, we will need an additional 50 million barrels a day”. 

2004  “Limits to growth: the 30 year update” was published. Analysis of data gathered over the time since the first edition showed that the original models appeared to be realistic. Limits to Growth, 30 Year Update

 National Geographic Magazine article “The end of Cheap oil” http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/

2005 U.S. Department of Energy releases report “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management”. The report is commonly referred to as the “Hirsch Report”.                                                                                                                       PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK ...

2010

February U.K. Industry Task Force on Energy and Security releases a report “The Oil Crunch – a wake-up for the U.K. economy”. http://peakoiltaskforce.net/

April  U.S. Military says oil crunch will start by 2012. According to a Joint Operating Environmental report from the U.S. Joint Forces Command, “A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity”. http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf

July Lloyds of London warns about peak oil and the economic impact of resultant increased energy prices. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/891/

September German Military study warns of a potentially drastic oil crisis and the world is now in the early stages of the crisis. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,715138,00.html

October University of California, Santa Barbara research paper “ Peak Energy, Climate Change and the Collapse of Global Civilization” – The Current Peak Oil Crisis, Tariel Morrigan  http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-12-14/peak-energy-climate-change-and-collapse-global-civilization-current-peak-oil-cris  (excellent update on the subject of limits to growth)

November The implications of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new report, World Energy Outlook 2010, are stark. Its 25-year “New Policies Scenario” projects that it is most probable that conventional crude oil production “never regains its all-time peak of 70 million barrels per day reached in 2006.”  http://www.iea.org/

Internet Resources

 

All are hyperlinked. Select the subject – Ctrl+ Click to open link

Web Links

Google ‘peak oil’ for thousands of web sites, video’s and images on this subject.

Peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Peak Oil News

The Oil Drum | Discussions about Energy and Our Future

 

Peak oil primer and links | Energy Bulletin (Click ‘home’ for latest news)

ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

 

The Crash Course

Gail Tverberg (Gail is an actuary who lives in metro Atlanta)

Richard Heinberg

Hirsch Report

Videos

3:06

Peak Oil - Visually Explained

 

 

3:29

Peak Oil Facts with Richard Heinberg

 

5:00

300 years of fossil-fueled addiction in 5 minutes

 

 

 

7:06

Peak Oil - Robert Hirsch

 

 

10:42

T Boone Pickens says Peak Oil is already here - 85 million barrels per day

 

         

 

         11:04  Dr. James Schlesinger "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"

 

21:11

Dr. Kenneth Deffeyes on Peak Oil

 

32:49

ASPO Crude Oil Price Forecast and Investment/Hedging Strategies – Erik Townsend

 

51:43

The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak oil

 

 

        60:00   Representative Bartlett talks about US Deficit and Peak Oil (C-SPAN video. Starts at 7:54)

 

        99:00    Documentary – “Why we fight?”

 

 

 

 

Books on Peak Oil and Transition

All are hyperlinked. Select the subject – Ctrl+ Click to open link

 

                       

The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies Richard Heinberg

The End of Growth  Adapting to our New Economic Reality  Richard Heinberg

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy Matthew R. Simmons

The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century

James Howard Kunstler

 

Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil Michael C. Ruppert

The Coming Oil Crisis  C. J. Campbell

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World Richard Heinberg

Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum (The American Empire Project) Michael T. Klare

Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil David Goodstein

The Post Carbon Reader  Richard Heinberg, Daniel Lerch

Managing the 21st Century's Sustainability Crises

The Impending World Energy Mess

Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, Robert Wendling

Peak Oil and the Second Great Depression  Kenneth Worth

A Survival Guide for Investors and Savers After Peak Oil

Confronting Collapse  Michael C. Ruppert

The Crisis of Energy and Money in a Post Peak Oil World

Localist Movements in a Global Economy David J. Hess

Sustainability, Justice, and Urban Development in the United States

Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller

Oil and the End of Globalization  by Jeff Rubin

The Transition Timeline

For a Local, Resilient Future

The Long Descent  John Michael Greer

A User's Guide to the End of the Industrial Age

Peak Everything

Waking Up to the Century of Declines Richard Heinberg

The Oil Depletion Protocol  Richard Heinberg

A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse

 

The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight: Revised and Updated: The Fate of the World and What We Can Do Before It's Too Late

Thom Hartman

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transition to a Sustainable World

 

All are hyperlinked. Select the subject – Ctrl+ Click to open link

Home | Oil Depletion Protocol

 

Preparing for Peak Oil

 

Permaculture - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Transition Towns - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Welcome | Transition US

 

Transition to Sustainability, Long Descent, or Sudden Drop? | The ...

 

The transition to sustainability - Economic Times

 

The Transition to Sustainability by Jeffrey D. Sachs - Project ...

 

Long-term trends and a sustainability transition

 

Sustainability Topics

 

Transition Towns: Local networking for global sustainability

 

Key Concepts - Permaculture Institute

 

Permaculture Principles

 

Permaculture.Net | Welcome

 

What Is Permaculture?

 

Videos

7:43 Permaculture Principles at Work

 

33:05 Financial Permaculture

 

52:33 Permaculture

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                                                                  Rev. 6/30/11 R. L. Newton  





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