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Propability and Expected Value in Option Trading

  • Jul 31, 2013 · 6:00 PM
  • This location is shown only to members

Hi All,

I’m excited to announce our next meet-up on Wednesday July 31st.  One of our members Craig Hilsenrath will be doing a presentation on using probability and expected value in option trading. 

Craig is the founding partner of Hilco Financial Software. His options software enables users to analyze option volatility, risk and trading strategies. In addition to the presentation Craig will demonstrate how to use a spreadsheet to implement the expected profit/return calcs as well as how to compute expected return for multiple positions in his software so that they can be compared and contrasted

Craig spent 25 years as a software engineer for investment banks, hedge funds and financial industry service vendors. He brings a unique combination of technical abilities and an understanding of strategic business processes that translate into a superior custom software product for his clients.

Prior to starting Hilco Financial Software, Craig held positions of Senior Software Engineer, Senior Systems Architect, Chief Designer, Assistant Vice President and Senior Analyst for such leading US financial firms as RBS/Greenwich Capital Markets, Tudor Investment Corporation and Fitch Risk Management.

I think this is a great extension of our previous meet-up of vol moves before earnings.  As always we will have beverages and pizza.  I’m looking forward to seeing everyone.  If you have any questions please do not hesitate to contact me. 




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  • Ron B

    Want to learn more about the Probability model? Go to:

    August 24, 2014

  • Nariner

    When is the next meeting? I am very interested.

    November 30, 2013

  • Willie D.

    Looks great, Craig. Looking forward to using this.

    At what point does the clock start ticking on the trial? And could we, if necessary, convene a group Q&A session at some point?

    Thanks, again, for last night.


    August 15, 2013

  • Craig H.

    Thanks to everyone who attended the demo last night. Here is the information on the Option Workbench special offers. Be sure to use the coupon code to get the discount:

    The coupon code is OWBOTG

    The 50% off 2 months link is The 2 week trial link is Let me know if you need help.


    August 15, 2013

  • Craig H.

    Here's the GoTo Meeting info for tonight's demo.

    1. Please join my meeting, Aug 14, 2013 at 8:00 PM EDT.

    2. Use your microphone and speakers (VoIP) - a headset is recommended. Or, call in using your telephone.

    Dial +1 (312)[masked]
    Access Code:[masked]
    Audio PIN: Shown after joining the meeting

    Meeting ID:[masked]

    Online Meetings Made Easy®

    Not at your computer? Click the link to join this meeting from your iPhone®, iPad® or Android® device via the GoToMeeting app.

    August 14, 2013

  • Craig H.

    I forgot to mention that the time of the demo will be 8:00 PM EDT.

    August 5, 2013

  • Craig H.

    I'd like to schedule an online demo of Option Workbench for Wednesday 8/14. Please email at [masked] if you're interested. Please put "NYOT Demo" in the subject line so I know what to do with the email. Thanks!

    August 5, 2013

  • Michael I.

    I think it would be very useful to have a tool that displays the implied distribution using a set of options that the user selects. Maybe provide a choice of weighting schemes, too, such as vega-weighted. This way, one see what the skew implies for the future distribution.

    August 3, 2013

  • Craig H.


    Thanks to everybody who attended. Sorry again about the technical difficulties. You can view the video presentation at

    There are other videos there on Option Workbench so please help yourself. I'll be posting the link for the free trial on Monday.


    August 3, 2013

  • maryroby

    sorry i'm going to miss this topic

    July 30, 2013

  • A former member
    A former member

    I'm sorry I can't make this one

    July 25, 2013

  • Deo R.

    recently came across this software and wanted the group's feedback

    July 25, 2013

  • Michael I.

    Looking for a fintech business accelerator with relationships with regional broker-dealers and RIA's to white-label an iPhone app, "Option Chain", for real-time equity options market-data & risk-analytics. Download

    July 23, 2013

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