Freethought Fridays: Midtown Book Club

To provide more options, we will meet each Friday at 6:00 at Otherlands Coffee Bar in midtown.

Chapters 6&7 of The Signal and the Noise. See you there!

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  • Sarah C

    Hate to cancel, but some work issues just came up. See you at grapes and hops!

    June 7, 2013

  • Molly

    Grapes and Hops this week so don't forget to RSVP for that if you are interested in dining after book club:)

    June 4, 2013

  • Joan Cunningham E.

    Have one note about chapter 6: the scale on that flooding margin of error graphic. Off much? I feel he's horribly exaggerating the accuracy of that forecast. I can't blame the Weather Service for thinking that if they admitted to a 40% margin of error that they might not be taken seriously. I come to the same conclusion as the author of the fact that the margin needs to be shared. I just don't understand why he presents it such to imply the margin wasn't big enough to make an impression of lack of prediction ability. Seems counter to the point of the book.

    Have fun without me!

    1 · June 7, 2013

    • David

      Theists like to say 'Pride leadith before a fall'. The author suggested on a few occasions in the book, that mean-estimates are provided only, and the margins aren't mentioned. He seems to suggest that the omission of the margin is done because its embarrassingly large. Who is it embarrassing to? To the forecasters. Yes, the public may be more forgiving than the forecasters believe. In any event, that's the authors belief. An alternative explanation is just that giving the mean is simpler. The most complete answer is the statistical 'distribution of possibilities', or at least the mean accompanied by a standard deviation term. However, the average reading level of the public is at the 9th grade level! Remember the target audience. A mean estimate is more easily digested by the public.

      1 · June 7, 2013

  • Leo E. A.

    I'll be sure to read your comment tonight. Very good point.

    June 7, 2013

  • Joan Cunningham E.

    Thought could put of a trip out of town, but it's not working out that way. Will see you next week!

    June 7, 2013

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