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intrade.com chart analysis of GOP candidates

A former member
Post #: 43
here is my review of charts at intrade.com, the 'prediction market':

http://docs.google.co...­

in summary, I'm generally positive on Romney, Huckabee and Paul, while more bearish on Rudy, Thompson and McCain.
Gilby
UniGilby
Circle Pines, MN
Post #: 16
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I was thinking that maybe these markets are slanted with better odds for Ron Paul because these people probably want him to win since he is favorable towards online gambling. In other words, more Ron Paul supporters than normal in this community slants the information that ultimately makes up these odds.
A former member
Post #: 45
I was thinking that maybe these markets are slanted with better odds for Ron Paul because these people probably want him to win since he is favorable towards online gambling. In other words, more Ron Paul supporters than normal in this community slants the information that ultimately makes up these odds.


true, but when you buy a stock don't you also want it to 'win'?

the odds are made by speculators buying and selling. if you look at the bid/ask tables you'll see there are plenty of folks ready to bet against him too.

furthermore, I've noticed these markets have been a leading indicator for the supposedly scientific polls. when RP was at 1% on the markets he didn't even register on the phone polls, when he moved up to ~3% on the market he soon started to get 1 or 2% in the polls. now that he's trading in the 5 ranges we're seeing polls showing him around 3% support.
Gilby
UniGilby
Circle Pines, MN
Post #: 17
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Let me rephrase that. The price for the bet is a reflection of a perfect market given the collective information known by the population participating. If you take a population of people that has more Ron Paul supporters than the general population, and compute the chances of Ron Paul winning the election, you will find that the chances are greater than if you did the same with the general population.

Therefore there is a little premium added to the price on a win for Ron Paul because those participating think his chances are higher than they are.
A former member
Post #: 46
actually the Vegas bookies are getting much higher odds than the online markets. that's been the case for months.
A former member
Post #: 74
couple things...

odds on betfair are starting to narrow for RP, down to 14/1 (implied 7% chance):

http://tinyurl.com/23...­

the RP GOP contract on intrade continues to build a base in the 6 range:

http://data.intrade.c...­

so far my initial chart analysis of these GOP contracts has been fairly accurate. the only thing is that the Douche still hovers near the 40 level.

but the most interesting thing is the action on the RP general election contract. some very aggressive buying the last 24 hours. the contract got pushed up to nearly 6 with heavy volume. it has since come back down most of the way to 3, but the action could be portending something. will the 2008.PRES.PAUL contract end up trading near par or even a premium to the 2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL contract? if so it would mean the 'market' takes the potential for a Paul presidency seriously, whether via the GOP or otherwise. we'll keep an eye on this.


A former member
Post #: 75
sorry I tried to include an image on the last post but it didn't take. here it is:

http://docs.google.co...­
A former member
Post #: 82
Major New Development on the GOP contracts.

the Douche has broken above massive resistance the last few days.

http://tinyurl.com/yt...­

expect the media to soon start treating rudy like they have hillary. that he is 'running away' with the race yada yada.

to me this chart is big news. bigger than anything in the race to date really. he's near 45 now. look for a quick run well into the 50s.
A former member
Post #: 84
I just noticed that 'Huckabee' is currently listed as one of the top
searches on technorati. this is the first time I've seen another
candidate beside RP on that list. this is a good thing in my opinion.
gotta keep that field fractionalized!

http://technorati.com...­

also we've just seen a major high volume break out on his intrade
contract the last couple days:

http://tinyurl.com/39...­
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