Past Meetup

Applied R Summertime Edition: Multi-state churn and time-to-event analysis in R

This Meetup is past

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St.-Martin Straße 66 bei BurdaForward · München

How to find us

BurdaForward GmbH - St. Martin-Str. 66, 81541 München

Location image of event venue


It’s time for another Applied R Munich meetup, this time hosted & sponsored by BurdaForward GmbH. We are also happy to announce that we are a partner of the Why R? 2018 conference (

06:30 pm - Doors open
07:00 pm - Welcome & Introduction
07:15 pm - First talk (see below) + Discussion
08:00 pm - Short break
08:15 pm - Second talk (see below) + Discussion

There will be time for networking / food / drinks before, in between and after the talks.

Please, don't hesitate to contact us at [masked] (or via meetup) if you think that your company wants to host one of our next meetups or if you have an interesting talk about an R related topic.


Talk 1: Multi-state churn analysis with a subscription product

Bio of the speaker:
Marcin Kosiński has a master degree in Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis specialty. Community events host: co-organizer of the +1800 members R Enthusiasts meetups in Warsaw and the co-organizer of the Polish R Users Conference 2018 (‘Why R? 2018’ Interested in R packages development and survival analysis models. Currently explores and improves methods for quantitative marketing analyses and global surveys at Gradient Metrics LLC. (edited)

Subscriptions are no longer just for newspapers. The consumer product landscape, particularly among e-commerce firms, includes a bevy of subscription-based business models. Internet and mobile phone subscriptions are now commonplace and joining the ranks are dietary supplements, meals, clothing, cosmetics and personal grooming products.
Standard metrics to diagnose a healthy consumer-brand relationship typically include customer purchase frequency and ultimately, retention of the customer demonstrated by regular purchases. If a brand notices that a customer isn’t purchasing, it may consider targeting the customer with discount offers or deploying a tailored messaging campaign in the hope that the customer will return and not “churn”.
The churn diagnosis, however, becomes more complicated for subscription-based products, many of which offer multiple delivery frequencies and the ability to pause a subscription. Brands with subscription-based products need to have some reliable measure of churn propensity so they can further isolate the factors that lead to churn and preemptively identify at-risk customers.
During the presentation I’ll show how to analyze churn propensity for products with multiple states, such as different subscription cadences or a paused subscription. If the time allows I’ll also present useful plots that provide deep insights during such modeling, that we have developed at Gradient Metrics - a quantitative marketing agency (


Talk 2: Generalized additive (mixed) models to time-to-event data with the pammtools R package

Bio of the speaker:
Andreas Bender is a PhD candidate in statistics at LMU Munich. His research interests include flexible hazard rate models and focus on cumulative effects (also known as distributed lags and exposure-lag-response associations).

At the MeetUp, Andreas will introduce the pammtools package (, which provides functionality to fit generalized additive (mixed) models to time-to-event data as well as for their visualization and interpretation. A special focus is given to time-varying effects and cumulative effects of time-dependent covariates, where multiple past observations of a covariate can cumulatively affect the hazard/survival probability. The functionality will be illustrated using multiple real data examples.