Past Meetup

Applied R Summertime Edition: Multi-state churn and time-to-event analysis in R

This Meetup is past

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St.-Martin Straße 66 bei BurdaForward · München

How to find us

BurdaForward GmbH - St. Martin-Str. 66, 81541 München

Location image of event venue

Details

It’s time for another Applied R Munich meetup, this time hosted & sponsored by BurdaForward GmbH. We are also happy to announce that we are a partner of the Why R? 2018 conference (www.whyr2018.pl).

Schedule:
06:30 pm - Doors open
07:00 pm - Welcome & Introduction
07:15 pm - First talk (see below) + Discussion
08:00 pm - Short break
08:15 pm - Second talk (see below) + Discussion

There will be time for networking / food / drinks before, in between and after the talks.

Please, don't hesitate to contact us at [masked] (or via meetup) if you think that your company wants to host one of our next meetups or if you have an interesting talk about an R related topic.

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Talk 1: Multi-state churn analysis with a subscription product

Bio of the speaker:
Marcin Kosiński has a master degree in Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis specialty. Community events host: co-organizer of the +1800 members R Enthusiasts meetups in Warsaw and the co-organizer of the Polish R Users Conference 2018 (‘Why R? 2018’ www.whyr2018.pl). Interested in R packages development and survival analysis models. Currently explores and improves methods for quantitative marketing analyses and global surveys at Gradient Metrics LLC. (edited)

Abstract:
Subscriptions are no longer just for newspapers. The consumer product landscape, particularly among e-commerce firms, includes a bevy of subscription-based business models. Internet and mobile phone subscriptions are now commonplace and joining the ranks are dietary supplements, meals, clothing, cosmetics and personal grooming products.
Standard metrics to diagnose a healthy consumer-brand relationship typically include customer purchase frequency and ultimately, retention of the customer demonstrated by regular purchases. If a brand notices that a customer isn’t purchasing, it may consider targeting the customer with discount offers or deploying a tailored messaging campaign in the hope that the customer will return and not “churn”.
The churn diagnosis, however, becomes more complicated for subscription-based products, many of which offer multiple delivery frequencies and the ability to pause a subscription. Brands with subscription-based products need to have some reliable measure of churn propensity so they can further isolate the factors that lead to churn and preemptively identify at-risk customers.
During the presentation I’ll show how to analyze churn propensity for products with multiple states, such as different subscription cadences or a paused subscription. If the time allows I’ll also present useful plots that provide deep insights during such modeling, that we have developed at Gradient Metrics - a quantitative marketing agency (http://gradientmetrics.com/).

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Talk 2: Generalized additive (mixed) models to time-to-event data with the pammtools R package

Bio of the speaker:
Andreas Bender is a PhD candidate in statistics at LMU Munich. His research interests include flexible hazard rate models and focus on cumulative effects (also known as distributed lags and exposure-lag-response associations).

Abstract:
At the MeetUp, Andreas will introduce the pammtools package (https://adibender.github.io/pammtools/), which provides functionality to fit generalized additive (mixed) models to time-to-event data as well as for their visualization and interpretation. A special focus is given to time-varying effects and cumulative effects of time-dependent covariates, where multiple past observations of a covariate can cumulatively affect the hazard/survival probability. The functionality will be illustrated using multiple real data examples.