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Tech Talk Zug: Augur - Blockchain Prediction Markets - Perry Despeignes

  • Sep 10, 2015 · 6:30 PM
  • Bitcoin Suisse AG

Presentation Description:

The Augur Project aims to leverage the "Wisdom of the Crowd" to become the world's "Early Warning System for Everything." We are building the world's first global, open, decentralised prediction market platform where anyone, anywhere can create prediction markets and speculate on them and where the rest of us can easily monitor that speculation to get a clearer sense of where things are going -- which big events of interest, that matter most to us, are likely or 1 unlikely to happen.

Too many of the surveys, polls, experts and other mass media we currently rely on to get a sense of where things are going and to make good judgements about the right course of action are contaminated by “noise” — by bias, ego, error, flawed methods, ideology, groupthink, habit, inertia, political correctness, taboo, vested interests, ulterior motives, fragmentation, deception, intimidation, cults of celebrity, cliques of punditry, flat-out ignorance, inaccuracy and random fluff. "Experts" are often wrong – sometimes catastrophically so. Imagine a better Early Warning System – for Everything – that tapped into the collective intelligence and awareness of Humanity. Imagine a virtual Crystal Ball that pooled our collective knowledge and even pooled our biases so that most of those biases canceled each other out. Imagine an easy to read Weather Report that's about a lot more than just the weather.

That's what Augur endeavors to become based on the the fundamentally simple premise that a million+ minds are better than one

The speaker's background:


Perry was an economics correspondent the Financial Times, Fortune and Investors Business Daily after majoring in economics at Harvard. He is a fan of leading indicators and of "big data" generally, long before it was buzzworded. Before the 2007 crash, he uncovered heavy insider selling by homebuilder executives, used futures markets to gauge the surprising extent of Wall Street's dependence on the Fed, was first to report the Fed's formal brainstorming over unconventional stimulus options and how the U.S. government's future financial challenges were massively underestimated. He developed regressions to assess which nations might outperform or underperform going forward based on which were "underpriced" or "overpriced." He manages various special projects for info services group Serenity, Augur and the Forecast Foundation. 

Thanks a lot to Bitcoin Suisse AG for hosting this meetup! 



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  • Perry D.

    These are the (augur.net) Google Analytics maps I had neglected to include in the presentation, showing widespread global interest:

    https://twitter.com/pqdeep/status/644057512405270528

    1 · September 16, 2015

  • Perry D.

    Thank you, Anke and Gregory. We're humbled by the interest.

    These are the google maps I forgot to include in the presentation, showing interest in the website by geography over the past month:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx8T_M1UUwjQbUtKOEV6cXBBZkU/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx8T_M1UUwjQRGdxbzhNVHljenM/view?usp=sharing

    And this is the pic of the upside-down building in Slovakia(?) that I neglected to include in the powerpoint as a visual metaphor for the game developer case study:

    https://englishmaninslovakia.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/img_2859.jpg

    2 · September 13, 2015

  • Gregory

    Brilliant presentation and interesting Q&A discussion.

    1 · September 11, 2015

  • anke

    I do find Augur very interesting, so it's always welcome to learn more first hand.

    September 10, 2015

  • Alexander A.

    What a pitty, I won't be able to attend. Will the talk be recorded?

    August 29, 2015

    • Roger D.

      I'm happy to help you with the editing of course

      September 1, 2015

    • Lucas B.

      I don't have the money right now to buy a tripod so no, no second camera.

      September 2, 2015

  • Roger D.

    Hi - do we know how deep Perry will go into Augur? For instance, I wonder the level of detail he'll cover regarding the LMSR?

    1 · August 29, 2015

    • Fabian H.

      Dear Roger,
      Here the answer from Perry, the speaker:

      "===
      Hi Roger, I was planning to provide an overview and discuss Augur's potential applications and implications, but in Q&A we could go in any direction you'd like.
      Note that we use the LS-LMSR, which is more robust than the LMSR, and there are posts about each on our website:
      http://www.augur.net/...­
      http://www.augur.net/...­
      ===

      Best regards,
      Perry D."

      2 · August 29, 2015

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