Past Meetup

Multi-state Churn Analysis + Unf*ck your code

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• What we'll do
Title: Multi-state churn analysis with a subscription product

Subscriptions are no longer just for newspapers. The consumer product landscape, particularly among e-commerce firms, includes a bevy of subscription-based business models. Internet and mobile phone subscriptions are now commonplace and joining the ranks are dietary supplements, meals, clothing, cosmetics and personal grooming products.

Standard metrics to diagnose a healthy consumer-brand relationship typically include customer purchase frequency and ultimately, retention of the customer demonstrated by regular purchases. If a brand notices that a customer isn’t purchasing, it may consider targeting the customer with discount offers or deploying a tailored messaging campaign in the hope that the customer will return and not “churn”.

The churn diagnosis, however, becomes more complicated for subscription-based products, many of which offer multiple delivery frequencies and the ability to pause a subscription. Brands with subscription-based products need to have some reliable measure of churn propensity so they can further isolate the factors that lead to churn and preemptively identify at-risk customers.

During the presentation I’ll show how to analyze churn propensity for products with multiple states, such as different subscription cadences or a paused subscription. If the time allows I’ll also present useful plots that provide deep insights during such modeling, that we have developed at Gradient Metrics - a quantitative marketing agency (

Marcin Kosiński has a master degree in Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis specialty. Community events host: co-organizer of the +1600 members R Enthusiasts meetups in Warsaw and the main organizer of the Polish R Users Conference 2017 (‘Why R? 2017’ Interested in R packages development and survival analysis models. Currently explores and improves methods for quantitative marketing analyses and global surveys at Gradient Metrics.

Title: Unf*ck Your code

This talk is about how to unf*ck your code. And by unf*ucking I mean making sure that it works every time, under every condition and is written in a way that makes sense to you and to others. Because if it doesn’t, then your code is f*cked.

If you are a researcher then it means doing reproducible research. If you work in business it means writing production ready code. And if you are just writing code alone in the dark it means writing code your future self will understand.

This talk is about coding styles, comments, documentation, packaging, tests and docker. This talk aims a making good programmers out of good data scientists.

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