What we're about
This is a group for anyone interested in envisioning the trajectory of evolution and where it's going to lead us to in the next thirty years and beyond. For many of us, the next thirty years will be the second half of our lives, and we aim to make this group a resourceful source of wisdom about what's actually possible in our lifetimes as well as what to prepare for.
Unlike conventional transhumanism, which focuses primarily on technological transformation (but not exclusively), this group is interested in cultivating a much broader vision and conversation: changes in culture, economics, politics, philosophy, science, education, spirituality, health, happiness, well-being, justice and more.
As the late Transhumanist FM 2030 predicted, the 2030's "will be a magical time". And as Ray Kurzweil predicts, the Technological SIngularity will occur around 2045, when the Technium becomes billions of times more intelligent than all humans combined. The Technium is a term by Kevin Kelly for the sphere of technology around the planet that is increasingly integrating with humanity. Some have said it's like an external layer of cortex with humans functioning as the global limbic system.
There are many reliable trendlines that lead into the future. They have yet to be pieced together into a coherent vision of where we're headed. We need more than trends but also theory, facts, and a lot of understanding about the world today. I've come up with a theory of cultural evolution that I don't yet know if it's already been formulated. The constituent trends in memetic flourishing are listed, an the consequences of justification are listed.
1) increasing memetic flourishing
===accelerating progress towards: ( 1) neoteny/youthfulness,2) transparency, trust, and perhaps empathy, intimacy, vulnerability, and love, 3) Richness and amount of communication, 4) capacity to learn and change behavior, 5) memory and foresight, 6) novelty and richness of consciousness, 7) increasing fictions and art)
2) Selection of memes by "justification" (justification is based on Gregg Henriques' Justification hypothesis, but needs further defining)
=== accelerating progress towards:
1) revelation of truth, 2) justice (the moral arc), 3) meaning/goals/purposes, 4) global cooperation leading to a Singleton, 5) increasing moral standards of dominance hierarchies but also stratification, 6) decline of violence, 7) Transparency and Trust, 8) Escalator of reason, knowledge, intelligence, creativity, innovation, 9) technology, augmentation of human powers, and capacity for destruction, 10) Self control, pacification, domestication, expanding circle of compassion, 11) commerce and commodification, 12) interconnectivity and transportation 13) wealth and prosperity, 14) well-being, 15) energy expenditure
AGI threats: I and Steven Pinker think that AGI is just another technology that augments human capabilities. It is completely distinct from Artificial Consciousness, which can never be a tool. Therefore AGI is very unlikely to exterminate or replace us. It will almost certainly remain a tool. AGI will give all humans new capabilities and purposes.
Some Trends to Consider:
Ray Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns:
2020s The revolution in Nanotechnology is to begin: allowing humans to vastly overcome the inherent limitations of biology. This decade also marks the revolution in Robotics
• Early in the 2020's,humanity will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence within a $1000 personal computer,
By the later part of the 2020s, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality.
2023 - 1016 calculations per second—roughly the equivalent of one human brain—will cost $1,000.
2025 - The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology. Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.
• Mind Uploading becomes successful and perfected by the end of this decade
• Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain
• "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience.
• Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in peoples' brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities
• The many variations of "Human Body 3.0" are gradually implemented during this and the following decade; It most likely lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology.
• By the 2030's, while flowing through our arteries, microscopic robots would keep us healthy and transmit our brains onto the cloud. He also says Mind Uploading will be possible by the end of this decade.
• People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality(Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
• (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog)Foglets are in use. Nonbiological intelligence will be billions of times more capable than biological intelligence.
2045: The Singularity - $1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. This means that average and even low-end computers are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans. The technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted (hence the term "Singularity").The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
Kevin Kelly predicts the following trends for the next 30 years:
Becoming: Moving from fixed products to always upgrading services and subscriptions
Cognifying: Making everything much smarter using cheap powerful AI that we get from the cloud
Flowing: Depending on unstoppable streams in real-time for everything
Screening: Turning all surfaces into screens
Accessing: Shifting society from one where we own assets, to one where instead we will have access to services at all times.
Sharing: Collaboration at mass-scale. Kelly writes, “On my imaginary Sharing Meter Index we are still at 2 out of 10.”
Filtering: Harnessing intense personalization in order to anticipate our desires
Remixing: Unbundling existing products into their most primitive parts and then recombining in all possible ways
Interacting: Immersing ourselves inside our computers to maximize their engagement
Tracking: Employing total surveillance for the benefit of citizens and consumers
Questioning: Promoting good questions is far more valuable than good answers
Beginning: Constructing a planetary system connecting all humans and machines into a global matrix.
We aim to make friends who can maintain long-term discussions and debates on controversial and cutting-edge topics. Ultimately we aim to find intelligent people to participate in projects with. We're interested in reading groups, presentations, debates, casual meetups, and even long-term projects or possibly start-ups.
All races, genders, religions, and ethnicities are welcome. You will be safe with us. We welcome conversations on spirituality; in fact, we're very open and interested in it, but here, no idea is immune to criticism. We believe in intellectual honesty, critical thinking, and reason responsiveness.
We welcome anyone as long as you are polite, safe and respectful