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Bi-Weekly Discussion - The Iran-Israel Conflict

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Hosted By
Brian B.
Bi-Weekly Discussion - The Iran-Israel Conflict

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...

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THE IRAN-ISRAEL CONFLICT: HOW SHOULD THE U.S. RESPOND?

INTRODUCTION:

This meetup will analyze how the Iran-Israel conflict moved from a long-standing proxy war to a direct conflict - what's now being called the "Twelve-Day War" - which culminated in U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan and then a tentative ceasefire agreement. We'll discuss what the potential outcomes of this rapid military escalation & de-escalation will have for the Middle East's balance of power, as well as how this conflict has impacted the domestic political situations in Iran, Israel, and the United States.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Back in Oct. 2023, we had a meet entitled "Should the U.S. Support Israel?" We looked at the following debates: (1) the formation of Israel leading up to the 1948 war and the debate over whether this was an act of European colonialism or Jewish self-determination, (2) allegations that Israel is an apartheid state & war criminal and rebuttals that it's merely acting in self-defense & tries to limit civilian casualties, (3) proposed solutions to the Israel-Palestinian conflict & the debate over whose fault it is they haven't worked, and (4) the debate over whether supporting Israel serves America's national interest.

Back in July 2023, we had a meetup entitled "What Causes War?" The intro summarized various realist theories of war (e.g. bargaining failure, power transition theory, selectorate theory, deterrence), whereas the body of the discussion focused on more on psychological & cultural factors that complicate the positivist approach of the realists to war, such as (1) cognitive biases among leaders that lead to war, (2) the effects of the news media on public opinion of wars, (3) the role of patriarchal honor cultures, and (4) the role of long-standing ethnic & religious hostilities.

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the Iran-Israel conflict & what the U.S. response should be. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 60 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. THE HISTORY OF THE IRAN-ISRAEL PROXY CONFLICT & RELATION TO THE IRAN'S PROXY CONFLICTS WITH SAUDI ARABIA & TURKEY:

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1a) Channel 4 News w/ Lawrence Freedman, "Israel - Iran: how 46 years of proxy war led to this conflict" (video - 18:48 min, listen to 10:18)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMehnY6jcl8

1b) TLDR News, "Why Saudi Arabia is Quietly Cosying up to Iran" (video - 9:17 min, listen to 7:30)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVj0QUMRiWw

II. THE "TWELVE DAY WAR" & ITS EFFECTS ON IRANIAN REGIME STABILITY & NUCLEAR PROGRAM:

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2a) William Spaniel, "What the Heck Is Israel's Strategy, Anyway?" (video - 17:23 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA1CQp_oJ90

2b) William Spaniel, "How Quickly Can Iran Build a Nuke [After U.S. Strikes on Its Nuclear Facilities]? Inside the U.S. Intel Dispute" (video - 13:50 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frjdjy59fwQ

III. THE POLITICAL SITUATIONS IN IRAN & ISRAEL AFTER THE "TWELVE DAY WAR":

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3a) France 24, "Iran turns to internal crackdown in wake of 12-day war" (video - 2:04 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loJwOsON23k

3b) CBS News, "How Israelis are reacting to 12 days of war with Iran" (video - 2:59 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVf0WBkysi4

IV. THE U.S. POLITICAL RIFTS OVER INTERVENTION IN THE IRAN-ISRAEL CONFLICT:

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4a) NBC News, "Trump's circle split over potential Iran strike" (video - 2:29 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xt4ZR9m17WU

4b) CBS News, "Democrats, some Republicans seek to limit Trump's war powers following Iran strikes" (video - 4:00 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJQpnIyvg0c

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