Talk: Introduction to BTYD (Buy Till You Die) Models by Dr. Juan Orduz (Wolt)

We are happy to welcome Dr. Juan Orduz (Data Scientist @ Wolt) for an introduction to consumer behavior models with PyMC.

Special thanks to HelloFresh for hosting this event!

Speakers:

Dr. Juan Orduz: juanitorduz.github.io

Timetable:

18:45 – doors open / drinks / socializing
19:00 – welcome
19:15 – talk on BTYD models
20:15 – Q&A
20:30 – drinks / snacks / socializing
21:15 – end

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a certain type of customer lifetime models for the non-contractual setting commonly known as BTYD (Buy Till You Die) models. We focus on two sub-model components: the frequency BG/NBD model and the monetary gamma-gamma model. We begin by introducing the model assumptions and parameterizations. Then we walk through the maximum-likelihood parameter estimation and describe how the models are used in practice. Next, we describe some limitations and how the Bayesian framework can help us to overcome some of them, plus allowing more flexibility. Finally, we describe some ongoing efforts in the open source community to bring these new ideas and models to the public.