Tetlock and Gardner: Can forecasting the future be taught?


Details
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
352 pages (although consider that some of those pages comprise the bibliography, appendix, and notes)
Excerpt from Amazon:
"Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?"
During the discussion, we'll use what we learned from the book to participate in the Good Judgement Open and The Economist: The World Ahead 2025 challenge! Please read the entire book though, and know that this discussion is about the book, NOT geopolitical or world events per se. https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/108-the-economist-the-world-ahead-2025


Tetlock and Gardner: Can forecasting the future be taught?