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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...

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HOW IS PARTY SWITCHING CHANGING OUR POLITICS?

INTRODUCTION:

In this meetup, we'll discuss how party switching is affecting our political system and the broader political atmosphere in the United States over the last decade or so. As the graphic above suggests, the inspiration for this topic comes from the unusual situation where the current Republican administration is headed by a former Democrat (i.e. Donald Trump was registered as a Democrat from 2001 to 2009) and includes two former Democratic presidential primary contenders - i.e. RJK Jr. as the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). And of course, there's been speculation that Senator John Fetterman (D-PA), once a rising star in the Democratic Party's progressive faction may switch parties after taking controversial stances that have broken with other members of his party and endeared more to Pennsylvania's Republican voters than the Democratic voters who elected him in 2022. The way Sen. Fetterman has sided with the Trump administration on some key issues, including the current war with Iran, recalls the way in which former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and former Sen. Joe Minchin (D-WV) held up much of the Biden administration's agenda and ultimately both switched to registering as independents in 2022 and 2024 respectively.

Looking a bit further afield, it's fairly easy to think of several prominent figures that supported Democrats until 2016-2020 but then broke with them in 2024 and endorsed Donald Trump or refused to endorse Kamala Harris and stayed neutral, especially comedians (e.g. Joe Rogan, Tim Dillon, Russel Brand, Jimmy More, Theo Von, Jim Breuer) and various libertarian-ish tech CEOs (Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, David Sacks, Marc Andreesen, Ben Horowitz). When we look for prominent Republicans who shifted towards the Democrats during the Trump era, the list favors more establishment figures like the "Never Trump" neoconservatives (e.g. Liz Cheney, David Frum, Bill Kristin, Charlies Sykes) and formerly moderate business conservatives that worked in politics & media (e.g. Mark Cuban, Joe Scarborough, Charlie Crist, Ana Navarro, Nicole Wallace).

But what's happening more broadly, and how is party switching by both voters and politicians changing the landscape of American politics? In the first section of this discussion, we'll look at trends among voters leaving the Democratic Party over the last decade or so, and in the second section we'll look at trends among politicians leaving the Democratic Party during this period. Then in the third section, we'll look at trends among voters leaving the Republican Party over the last decade or so, and finally in the fourth section we'll look at trends among politicians leaving the GOP in this period.

RELEVANT MATERIALS FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In Nov. 2022, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding the Great Realignment" and the 4th section dealt with the possibility that Trumpism" and the "Great Awokening" are realigning the two major parties, leading to a Republican Party with a mix of conservatives & populists and Democrats with a mix of liberals & libertarians, as Jennifer Victor predicted in a Vox article in 2016 entitled "The clockwork rise of Donald Trump and reorganization of American parties". We also discuss Michael Lind's 2014 article on "The Coming Realignment" predicting that the GOP will become more driven by a working-class/middle class coalition in "Posturbia" (suburbs, exurbs & rural areas), whereas the Democratic Party will be based around an multiracial coalition composed of a college-educated elite and lower-wage service workers in "Densitaria" (high-density downtowns of major cities).

Back in Jun. 2024, we had a meetup entitled "Which Party's Coalition Will Crack First?" where we explored how the current party coalitions might fracture, focusing on Democrats' struggles with young people and black & Hispanic voters (particularly men), and Republicans' struggles with major corporations and suburban middle-class whites (particularly women). The "Dem Crackup" scenario I outlined in the outline's Introduction section arguably describes the 2024 election: "A backlash against 'wokeness' will help the GOP win back the business conservatives while also attracting more working class voters, leading to major losses for the Democrats & a discrediting of the Democratic establishment. Ironically, this might give the Bernie-style populists a second shot at taking over the Democratic party, as they aim to win back the working class with economic reforms instead of identity politics."

Back in February, we had a meetup entitled "Elites & Counter-Elites". In the 3rd section, we discussed the growing conflict between journalists at legacy print & TV media outlets with declining viewership and "new media elites" like podcasters, social media influencers, and independent journalists at online outlets like Spotify & Substack. In particular, we talked about prominent liberal journalists defecting to Substack in 2020 (e.g. Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, Bari Weiss, Matt Yglesias, Jesse Singal), as well as the reasons for the shifting political loyalties of controversial comedians like Joe Rogan, Bill Maher, Dave Chappelle, Jerry Seinfeld, Russell Brand, Tim Dillon, Bill Burr, and Jimmy Dore. In the 4th section, we looked at the role of Silicon Valley as an alternative power center vis-a-vis New York & DC that attracts a different sort of elite class, as well as the recent rightward shift of some tech moguls like Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Marc Andreessen, Davis Sacks, and Brian Armstrong.

Back in May, we had a meetup entitled "Can 'Abundance Liberalism' Save the Dems?" We discussed the "blue stats exodus" due to high costs of living that have led 13 million people to migrate to red states, which could hurt the Democrats after the 2030 census if they lose seats in the house and presidential electors. We then discussed Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson's new book Abundance (2025) that promotes increasing the supply of essential goods & services (e.g. housing, healthy food, clean energy & transportation, broadband internet access, healthcare, education, childcare) to make them more abundant & affordable in order to achieve progressive outcomes like reducing poverty and creating more economic opportunities. We also looked at critiques of abundance liberalism from both the libertarian right and the progressive left, and whether - whatever its merits - abundance liberalism has "legs", i.e. can it gain enough electoral support in blue states to achieve some of its proposed reforms, or will it inevitably be crushed by the left-wing populists leading the anti-Trump resistance.

Back in August, we had a meetup entitled "The Return of the 'Socialist Moment' for Dems?" We discussed the Democrats' current low-favorability rating and reckoning after the 2024 election loss, and whether this indicates a desire for the party to become more moderate or more radical. We discussed the popularity of Bernie Sanders & AOC's "Fight Oligarchy" tour and Zohran Mamdani's surprise win in the NYC mayor's primary race, both of which may point to the rising fortune's of the Democrats' progressive/socialist wing. (Note: I wish I'd added a 4th section on the Democrats' struggles in their outreach to young men and their attempt to find their left-wing analogue for Joe Rogan in podcasters like Hasan Piker.)

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the theories about why both voters & politicians are switching their party affiliation and how this is affecting our politics. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 56 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. WHICH VOTERS HAVE LEFT THE DEMOCRATS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

  • Why do you think the dynamics of party switching tended to overall favor the GOP over Democrats in the Trump? And why do you think this continued in the Biden era, with the Democrats losing about 2M register voters and the GOP gaining about as many? Is it mostly due to economic factors, or do polarizing social issues (e.g. immigration, foreign policy, policing, trans issues) also matter?
  • Is it accurate to say that most of the voters leaving the Democratic Party over the last decade are white working class, or are black & Hispanic working class voters also leaving? And why does there appear to be a gender split, with more blue collar men moving away from Democrats?
  • To what extent is Matt Yglesias's theory of a "crank realignment" accurate, whereby the GOP attracts formerly left-wing anti-establishment figures & conspiracy theorists while the Democrats now attract "credulous conformists" who align with the establishment?
  • Did "low-propensity" independent voters favor the GOP in 2024? If so, does this tie into the "crank realignment" theory or just the shorter-term frustration with inflation in the Biden era? And does this mean the Democrats' old mantra that "when the people show up, we win" is no longer true?
  • To what extent are both CBN & TYT succumbing to the "pundit fallacy" and claiming that the things Democrats need to do to improve their political position is to adopt policies their media outlet has always favored?

1a) CBN News, "The 'Great Realignment:' Democrats Leave Party in Droves, and What It Could Mean for GOP in November [2022]" (video - 4:40 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m1esKcOTQ8

1b) Young Turks, "Millions FLEE Democratic Party [in 2024] — Here’s Why" (video - 9:38 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPYDGLdWXZw

II. WHICH POLITICIANS HAVE LEFT THE DEMOCRATS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

  • Can we identity certain types of politicians that have left the Democratic Party in recent years (e.g. socially conservative Blue Dog Democrats like Machin, fiscally moderate Democrats like Sinema, heterodox health advocates like RFK Jr., foreign policy non-interventionists like Gabbard)
  • Did they leave the Democratic Party, or did the party leave them - i.e. did those politicians who left significantly change their policy positions, or did they mostly stay the same while other Democrats altered the party platform & messaging?
  • To what extent are Democrats from rural states becoming less electorally viable due to their constituents becoming more socially conservative and/or Trump coopting economic populism? Are they better off running as independents, as Bernie Sanders suggested last year?
  • Is identity politics declining among the Democratic base in favor of Sanders-style economic populism? If so, can the Democrats regain some of their working class voters?
  • Are there larger socio-economic forces in play that may be causing gender polarization & class polarization, that inevitably push the Democrats towards being an "elite" party?

2a) The Hill w/ Ross Barkan, "How Did Democrats LOSE People Like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard?" (video - 12:20 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkvbGEOhEDY

2b) Kara Swisher w/ Joe Manchin, "Joe Manchin on why Democrats lost the working class, Trump, and polarization" (video - 53:50 min, start at 48:10)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlzhnOPFimk&t=48m10s

III. WHICH VOTERS HAVE LEFT THE REPUBLICANS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

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3a) Young Turks, "Voters Leaving The Republican Party En Masse [after Jan. 6]" (video - 7:10 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drBxCk0wtmk

3b) TLDR News Global, "'Will Iran Break MAGA?" (video - 10:00 min, listen to 8:31)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll58ANsmF38

III. WHICH POLITICIANS HAVE LEFT THE REPUBLICANS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

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4a) CNN w/ John Avlon, "This is why many Republicans are leaving the House [in 2019]" (video - 3:14 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmlsPw_ExJY

4b) Chris Cilia, "'A Tinder Box': Inside the Total Collapse of House Republican Morale [in 2025]" (video - 7:10 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRmbJXeOyXg

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