Impacting the Bottom Line with Bayesian Decision Making and PyMC3

El meetup va a hacerse en la oficina de LambdaClass (https://lambdaclass.com/) que está a unas cuadras del obelisco, en Tucumán 840 Piso 5 Departamento C. El meetup tendrá lugar el viernes 22 de Septiembre de 2019 a las 18:30.

Una charla por Sebastian Waisbrot, programador en Despegar, sobre Slime Molds, unos seres vivos unicelulares, que no tienen sistema nervioso central, y pueden resolver problemas complejos, aprender, comunicarse.

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Otra charla la va a dar Thomas Wiecki, VP of Data Science and head of research at Quantopian Inc, en inglés.

There are often high expectations on the business impact that data science can produce. Unfortunately, various barriers often hinder the full realization of that impact, starting with communication challenges between different parts of the organization with different backgrounds. To bridge this chasm, data scientists and stake-holders should agree on a business relevant loss function to optimize. This way, any improvements in the model can directly be measured in their impact on the bottom line.
In this talk, I will show how probabilistic programming frameworks like PyMC3 can be used to solve an applied problems with an example from capital allocation. This approach allows us to accurately and flexibly map a real-world problem to a statistical model that can be quickly iterated and improved on. I will then show how the results of such a model, which are usually arcane and non-actionable posterior probability distributions, can be coupled with a loss function based on business mechanics, to (i) derive business related outcome measures, and (ii) suggest the optimal decision to make, rather than inform it.