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Integrating Bayesian stats with machine learning for time-since-event prediction
The MLAI Meetup is a community for AI researchers and professionals which hosts monthly talks on exciting research. Our format is:
* 6:00 - 6:20: Socializing
* 6:20 - 6:40: Announcements and AI news
* 6:40 - 7:40: Talk(s) and Q&A
* 7:40 - 8:00 Networking
* 8:00: Head to the nearest pub for dinner
Joint event with the Statistical Society of Australia!
**Felicia Bongiovanni: "Inferring Time of Infection Based on Antibody Data Through a Hierarchical Bayesian Framework"**
**Abstract:** Time-since-event prediction is a powerful tool to reconstruct histories of an event. It is commonly used in biomedicine to predict the beginning of tumor growth, to predict how long ago someone was infected with a disease, and even to predict the time since death for criminal investigations. Inference through Bayesian statistics and mathematical modelling can allow for time-since-event prediction and provide insight into the mechanisms driving an event. Machine learning is also used for time-since-event prediction but lacks the mechanistic insight Bayesian inference can provide. However, Bayesian inference, especially through Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, can be computationally expensive and time-consuming. In this talk, I describe a method for combining Bayesian inference with machine learning to improve computational efficiency while also maintaining mechanistic insight. This is demonstrated through the case study of estimating time-since-infection using antibody data.
**Speaker bio:** Felicia is a PhD candidate at The Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research where she is conducting mathematical modelling of the immune response to understand more about infectious disease dynamics. In another life, she was a data analyst for the National Health Funding Body in Canberra through the Australia Bureau of Statistics Data Graduate Program.
Cuban (Rueda) Salsa Course every Tuesday in Collingwood
\*\*New Cuban Courses will commence Tuesday 20th January\*\*
Rueda de Casino – is a progressive Cuban-style salsa class and a fun way to learn salsa. Its fast paced, danced in a circle and changing partners flowing from one partner to the next
Cuban Salsa (Rueda)
BEGINNER LEVEL 7.00pm - 8.00pm
This course is for absolute beginner to beginner plus students.
The first 4 weeks we will cover Cuban Salsa fundamentals, Cuban Flow body movement and basic Cuban steps. The last 2 weeks we will use moves and steps learnt in a progressive wheel (Rueda) pattern.
This class can only be purchased as a 6 week course.
Course cost $120
For course bookings email gabby@melbournesalsa.com.au
***
Cuban Salsa (Rueda)
INTERMEDIATE LEVEL 8.00pm - 9.00pm
During this 6 week course, you will learn complicated Cuban turns, Rueda dynamics, team patterns and different formations, executing the moves by the caller and dancing in sync at a faster pace.
Must have completed 2 x Beg Level Rueda courses before entering Intermedaite level.
This class can be purchased as a 6 week course or can be attended casually.
Casual $25 (cash or eft pos)
Course cost $120
For course bookings email gabby@melbournesalsa.com.au
***
These Courses will be held at the
Melbourne Salsa studio
1/326 Smith Street Collingwood
(Rear entrance via laneway off Bedford street)
FREE Parking is available above Woolworths - 2 min walk to our studio.
For more details call Melbourne Salsa on 95312023 or email info@melbournesalsa.com.au
Chicago Cubs Events This Week
Discover what is happening in the next few days
Kudos 2 Friends . Expand Your Social Circle Around the Lake Stroll
We will meet at the starting point and take a round trip around the Albert Park lake. BYO a water bottle. Dress for comfort and outdoor walk. Come along & simply say, "Hi, it's my first time joining the group event." or ask the host(s) to introduce you. You can take it slow and start from there.
If you enjoyed the conversation, you're welcome to continue on afterwards. The South Melbourne market is just one tram stop away.
**\-\-\- Running Late \-\-\-**
If you are running late, please message at least 30mins in advance. We will wait up to 15mins before heading off. We won't be able to keep track of messages once we start.
**\-\-\- RSVP / Change of Plan \-\-\-**
If you change your plan or decide not to attend. Please update your RSVP.
**\-\-\- Intro \-\-\-**
Kudos to Friends….Expand Your Social Circle Meetup group is a community of individuals who prefer to take it slow to get to know people overtime in Melbourne. Join us on a fun journey as we explore cafes, restaurants and bars, including drinks, meals, outings, chilling, cultural exchange, etc. Above all, we’d like to celebrate the importance of friendships. So if you are looking to expand your social circle and explore new adventures and venues in Melbourne, come join us!
**\-\-\- Heylo App \-\-\-**
We use Heylo App for more fluid communication, including ideas, interest groups, questions etc. Please download the Heylo app from the App store and let the organizer know if you would like to be added to the Heylo Group at the event. We will send an invite to attendees to the group. (give us some time)
**\-\-\- Rules \-\-\-**
Admin will only add members to the group with a clear profile picture.
(No hidden behind sunglasses, masks, drawings)
**You might be removed from the group in the case of…**
* no show
* without a clear profile picture
* anti-social behaviour (i.e. acts rude / disrespectful regularly)
* take advantage of individuals for personal gain(s)
**\-\-\- Privacy \-\-\-**
Do not disclose your contact number in this post comment. We will delete your comment/info as soon as we see it to protect your privacy.
BENTLEIGH Cuban Salsa, Bachata & Rueda Dance Classes - Every Thursday
**2026 BENTLEIGH CUBAN SALSA, BACHATA**
**& RUEDA DE CASINO DANCE CLASSES**
**\- NOW OPEN \-**
**EVERY THURSDAY**
*\* No dance experience necessary*
*\* No partner required*
*\* Open to all adult ages*
At:
**BENTLEIGH UNITING CHURCH HALL**
495-497 Centre Rd, Bentleigh
(\* Located opposite the Bentleigh RSL)
**\* HALL Entry** \- via the front entrance of the church
\- Go past the glass panel doors
\- We are at the far end\, in the back room on the right\.
**2026 BENTLEIGH PROGRAM:**
**6.15pm – 7.30pm**
**#1: CUBAN SALSA BEGINNER**
Starting with the
**INTRODUCTION TO SALSA BASICS**
An extra 15 minutes has been added, aimed specifically to assist new Beginners with a slower breakdown of the main basic steps. More experienced Beginners are recommended to come use this to strengthen their core steps.
We found that by doing it this way, new students get a much better dance experience overall.
This leads into the main Beginner Salsa lesson.
**BEGINNER CUBAN SALSA** (Main Beginner Class)
*(Beginner to Improver Level)*
*TOTAL CLASS TIME: **1 Hour & 15 Minutes***)\*\*
**7.30PM – 8.30PM**
**\*\* CLASS #2:**
**CUBAN SALSA / RUED DE CASINO**
**IMPROVER - INTERMEDIATE LEVEL MAIN CLASS**
*(Covering Rueda De Casino & Cuban Salsa)*
\- Ideal for students who are confident with their Beginner level steps and turns\. This Improver to Intermediate level class will concentrate on Cuban Salsa & Rueda De Casino to raise the level of the Beginners to Improver Level and higher\.
**What is Rueda De Casino?**
*Rueda De Casino*, also called just *'Rueda'*, in it's basic form means 'Casino wheel', where dance couples comes together to form a circle, with one main 'caller', who calls out the names of different Cuban Salsa figures made up of different sequences of fun dance moves, which are danced by the couples in synchronisation. As the level of the dancers improve, so does the figures performed become more elaborate and complicated and with the constant change of partner calls, make the dance fun and exciting for the dancers, as well as spectators who
view the dance.
**8.30pm – 9.30pm**
**\*\*\* CLASS #3: BACHATA**
*(Absolute Beginner to Improver Level)*
\* No experience or partner necessary - all welcome
\- Bachata is the second most popular Latin dance around
the world after Salsa
**CLASS COST:**
Casual/Drop-in attendance:
Any Main class - $20 per class
Any 2 Classes on the night - $30 for both classes
or
Do ALL CLASSES on the night for only $35!
***\* Please note:*** We only accept **CASH** on this night
**CLOTHING & SHOES:**
Comfortable casual clothing.
Best shoes when starting are low or flat smooth sole shoes
like leather sole shoes. Avoid sandals & open toe shoes.
Avoid track shoes or runners as these grip the floor & can
interfere with your turns
**MEDICAL:**
Anyone with breathing problems, heart conditions, knee,
back or shoulder injuries and who are taking prescribed medication, please consult with your doctor first before joining any classes.
**COVID PROTOCOLS:**
\* If you have flu like symptoms or feeling unwell, please do not
attend any classes
\* If you are a first contact, as a precaution, please do not attend
any classes until after 7 days of negative tests
\* Sanitize hands frequently
**PRIVATE LESSONS:**
We provide private lessons on a one-to-one basis, with or without a dance partner and for private groups at a time that suits you
Wednesday Night Chill Run
Let's have fun while watching the night view with our friends!
🏃♂️Training menu🏃♂️
Every Wednesday 6:00p.m~
Fed Square Assembly
【https://maps.app.goo.gl/zmPQ6U533pUDcNSA9?g_st=ic】
If you have luggage, please consider using the lockers at the station.
💥40~60 min Jog+Walk
Pace: Easy pace, suitable for beginners. If you got tired, let's walk together.
【schedule】
6:00 p.m Gathering
6:10 p.m Start
7:00 p.m End of training
Challengers we are waiting for you 😊
Sunday Morning Chill Run
How about we kick off the best day with a jog and coffee together?
Trust me, you won't want to miss out!
🏃♂️Training menu🏃♂️
Every Sunday 8:00~
Fed Square Assembly
【https://maps.app.goo.gl/zmPQ6U533pUDcNSA9?g_st=ic】
If you have luggage, please consider using the lockers at the station.
💥40~60 min Jog+Walk
Pace: Easy pace, suitable for beginners. If you got tired, let's walk together.
【schedule】
8:00 Gathering
8:10 Start
9:00 End of training
Challengers we are waiting for you 😊
Play 3-Sided Soccer at Albert Park - mixed - social - all levels - all fitness
3 Teams. 3 Goals. Hexagonal Pitch. A game of alliance and betrayal in equal measure.
We are looking for new players and returning players alike to come play a match. Players of any ability, fitness level or background are welcomed - the game is intended to be fun for a Sunday morning rather than super competitive.
If you've never played before, that's okay - the rules are as simple as this:
* There's no offside - roam where you will
* Defend your goal at all costs
* No hands (this is soccer-style football after all)
Come down for 9:00am, we make some balanced teams and warm up for the match starting at 9:15.
Three thirds are played of 25 minutes each so we're usually done by about 11:00am. All fitness and soccer skill levels more than welcome and encouraged!
A note regarding junior players:
We very much enjoy and encourage junior players to come along and play however please be aware of the following:
* As most attendees are adults, all players must be a minimum of 1.5m tall and 13 years of age. Soccer may have incidental contact when contesting a ball, and we would hate for someone small to be injured as a result of running into someone larger than them.
* Any players under the age of 16 must be accompanied by a playing parent or guardian.
How to find us -
We meet on the astroturf pitch near the Baselball and Hockey clubs in Albert Park. The main location we use is called "Dorothy Coleman Field". If we aren't there then there may be a couple of other locations, [as noted on this dynamic map](https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1JdDwV4AOV5e-xP5d56m16-eu29GlnZQ&usp=sharing) \- generally we will follow in number order\.
Chicago Cubs Events Near You
Connect with your local Chicago Cubs community
COUNT RMH Housewarmer Volunteering (Ronald McDonald House)
Some trained COUNT volunteers work together once a month at RMH (http://www.rmhc-centralohio.org/volunteer.php) as Housewarmers (usually on the 1st Sunday from 1 – 5 PM). Some schedule other shifts at their convenience. You may try this out with less fuss by following a "Fast track" or go through the normal process.
Fast track
• Arrange a time to shadow a COUNT volunteer. Call Dave Nohle at 614-268-9558 (cell).
• Show up and try it out.
• Complete application, etc. later.
Normal process
• Complete an online application (http://rmhc-centralohio.org/volunteer/).
• Attend orientation in advance.
• At orientation you will complete forms agreeing to keep family/patient info private and allowing a background check and tour the facility.
• Complete one training shift. Daily shifts are: morning 9 AM - 1 PM, afternoon 1 - 5 PM and evening 5 - 9 PM.
• Schedule shifts online using the on the RMH scheduling system (http://www.volgistics.com/ex/portal.dll/?FROM=32895).
The Ronald McDonald House (RMH) provides housing and meals for families with sick children. The Columbus RMH is the largest in the world with 137 rooms. COUNT has been volunteering there since May 2014.
Housewarmers work with RMH guests to provide a home-like environment - greet, assist with family needs, answer phones, give tours, assist with checkin/checkout, prepare guest rooms after checkout, clean facility, laundry, restock supplies and staff the front desk. RMH Housewarmers volunteer at least one four-hour shift a month. All Housewarmers must complete an application and agree to a background check before they can be full fledged volunteers.
American Sign Language Beginners Meetup Group
We meet to learn and practice American Sign Language and to grow our familiarity with Deaf culture. Facilitated by hearing folks (with a connection to a professional interpreter) using Deaf-created content. People of all ASL skill levels are welcome! As we learn, we hope to connect more with the Deaf community in Central Ohio. Join us as you're able!
Come regularly or just once - whatever you're looking for! Each meetup will explore different topics related to ASL/Deaf culture, and will feature time to practice conversation with one another. Just bring yourself and a willingness to learn!
OVER 50 HAPPY HOUR AT MARKET DISTRICT-GRANDVIEW YARD FRI, MAY 1ST 5:00PM-8:00PM
Over 50 CINCO de MAYO HAPPY HOUR - FLIGHTS N TACOS!!!
Join us for a fun and relaxed Over 50 Happy Hour on Friday, May 1st from 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM at Giant Eagle Grandview Yard Event Center! (upper level) **Plenty of free parking**. The event center is huge! Pics are in the comments.
Over 50 CINCO de MAYO HAPPY HOUR!! – Flights n Tacos
Let’s join together for a fiesta! (Invite friends - we have lots of room!)
• Taco Bar
• Margarita and Beer tasting
• Complementary chips and salsa
• Margs/cocktails at the bar for purchase
• Festive Band/Music
Margaritas/Mexican Beer Tasting + Taco Bar:
Optional - For $15.00 per person you can also get 4 Margarita or beer)
Get ready for a fun evening filled with live music, great conversation, and a lively crowd of 50+ singles and friends looking to mix, mingle, and enjoy the night. Whether you come solo or with friends, you’ll quickly feel the welcoming, social vibe.
Enjoy happy hour at the bar until 6 PM, or take part in the special Cinco de Mayo experience featuring margarita flights and delicious Mexican bites. It’s the perfect setting to relax, meet new people, and celebrate in style.
Our private upstairs space gives us plenty of room to connect, laugh, and enjoy the energy of the night. Come when you can, stay as long as you like — the best conversations (and the most fun!) tend to build as the evening goes on.
No agenda — just great people, live music, and a Cinco de Mayo celebration you won’t want to miss!
Psychic Fair
We will have our certified mediums available and you can receive 3 10-minute readings for $20.
To keep you safe, we will be following all CDC and Health Dept. guidelines at our psychic fair today. Sitters and readers required to wear a mask. We will maintain a minimum of 6 foot physical distance during readings. Please, if you can, bring your own portable chair to use during your readings.
Please note that we are at our wonderful new home at Unity of Columbus, 4211 Maize Road, Columbus, OH
COUNT monthly event: Kitchen service at Van Buren Center's shelter
Come assist Van Buren Shelter (https://ymcacolumbus.org/locations/vanburen) staff in serving dinners and cleaning up on the 3rd Tuesday of each month. Dinner for the women is 5-6 pm and for the families is 6:15-7:15 pm. There is ample free parking available in the shelter's lot. The recommended area to park is in green in the image above.
There will be a new entrance for the time being. We are asking all volunteers to enter through the Donation Dock door, the orange mark on the image above. This door is located between the Single Adults and Family Shelter. You will see 2 large garage doors with a large green trash compactor in the center. Please head to the closest garage door to the building wall, with a ramp leading up. There, you will see a door with a sign stating instructions on how to enter the building. Please ring the doorbell, and a staff member will come and escort you into the building. If a staff member takes longer than 5 minutes, please call the front desk at 614-689-2020. This is a new process for us, and we do not want to keep you waiting! We appreciate your patience as we navigate this temporary change.
The shelter needs a volunteer count the day before the event so sign-up ends Monday at 4:50 PM. Afterwards some of us go to the Omnipresent Atheists Weekly Meetup in progress to have a bit to eat or drink (http://www.meetup.com/omnipresentatheists/).
Volunteers must be 14 or older. Since we will be working around families, the YMCA does not permit volunteering by individuals with convictions for violent or sexual crimes. The YMCA reserves the right to run background checks on volunteers.
For questions, comment on this page or contact: Andrew, awhit12@yahoo.com, (614)937-5802 (cell). Please let Andrew know if you volunteer anytime other than our COUNT events so that he can count your hours toward our service record.
Psychic Development Series II - Pueo Group
Private Group. Closed to the Public
Knowing ourselves and understanding our abilities is the first step toward wielding our gifts with control and accuracy.
In subsequent classes we will verify and hone our talents with activities and discussion. These are hands-on workshops and participation is expected.
The goal of our series will be to develop expertise in areas of particular interest such as mediumship, channeling, divination, healing and, etc.. Our ultimate directions will be determined by class members as we evolve.
I look forward to sharing and discovering with you. - Cynthia
Hoover Dam Hike
Join us for one of our favorite hikes this Tuesday (4/21/26) at 6:30 pm as we hike the Hoover Dam Scenic Trail, starting at the west end of the dam. This hike includes some paved paths/roads along with some dirt trails, with a few beautiful views of the reservoir. Join us for this 2 mile hike, finding us in the parking lot at the corner of Sunbury and Smoke Burr.
















