Six World Series: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

For our October Data Science DC Meetup, we're talking about the World Series. No, not that World Series* -- time-series data about the world! Long-time DSDC attendee Lee De Cola will be showing how to think about, analyze, and forecast important world-wide metrics that have been collected for over 50 years. Expect to learn about rigorous ways to analyze temporal data. And maybe there'll be baseball puns.

• Anybody want to talk about post-Moneyball sports analytics sometime? Get in touch!

Agenda:

• 6:30pm -- Networking, Empanadas, and Refreshments

• 7:00pm -- Introduction, Announcements

• 7:15pm -- Presentations and Discussion

• 8:30pm -- Data Drinks (Tonic, 2036 G St NW)

Abstract:

This presentation will use statistical and visualization features of R to explore yearly time series that characterize key global changes since 1950, a period sometimes called the Great Acceleration. Linear regression supplemented with autocorrelation diagnostics can provide most of the key descriptive information about these data, while nonlinear estimation and exponential smoothing can be used to provide forecasts. However, forecasting – in the sense of providing point predictions of future values – should be used descriptively and as providing warnings. Widespread understanding of these data is of surpassing importance to the future welfare of life on Earth.

Participants who would like to follow along are welcome to bring computers loaded with R and to download in advance (WiFi will not be available) the data used for this presentation at http://ldecola.net/projects/global/ .

Bio:

Lee De Cola (http://ldecola.net/) runs DATA to Insight a data visualization consulting and training enterprise. For 21 years he was a research scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Reston Virginia, where he used GIS and applied statistics to understand landscape dynamics and the health of regions and their inhabitants. Lee has published on land cover analysis, spatial epidemiology, urban systems complexity, fractals in geography, and urbanization in Africa. He has taught at a number of local institutions of higher education as well as in Nigeria, Vermont, West Virginia, and California. Lee volunteers at local public schools, and enjoys playing the clarinet, kayaking, and sailing. Follow him on Twitter @ldecola (https://twitter.com/ldecola).

Sponsors:

This event is sponsored by the GWU Department of Decision Sciences (http://business.gwu.edu/about-us/departments/decision-sciences/), Statistics.com (http://bit.ly/12YljkP), Hired (https://hired.com/), Elder Research (http://datamininglab.com/), Novetta Solutions (http://www.novetta.com/), and Booz Allen Hamilton (https://www.boozallen.com/consulting/strategic-innovation/nextgen-analytics-data-science). (Would your organization like to sponsor too? Please get in touch!)