Eastern Ohio Freethinkers Message Board › El Campesino Topic : Odds and probabilities

El Campesino Topic : Odds and probabilities

A former member
Post #: 6
During our monthly get together at El Campesino's the discussion turned to odds and probabilities. I had brought up the Monty Hall Effect and it appears I had described it incorrectly. I described it as picking one of 3 doors in which a prize was behind 1 door and the other 2 doors had nothing. I incorrectly stated that after picking a door you were given the chance to change your choice and none of the doors were revealed.

Actually, once you chose a door then 1 of the 2 remaining doors was revealed to show a loser. You where then allowed to exchange your choice for the remaining door and in doing so it increased your odds of winning by picking the other door increased.

Here is a link to wikipedia that describes the situation much better than I did :


The way I understand it, with 3 choices you have a 1/3 chance of picking the correct door. When one of the remaining doors is revealed to be a loser it leaves you a 2/3 chance then to pick the winning door and more often than not it will be the door that you didn't originally pick.
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