Practical Rationality: Improving Prediction Accuracy

This month's Practical Rationality night is themed around Group Prediction Calibration and Aumann's Agreement Theorem. We have prepared instructional exercises, and will be leading small groups in an investigation of how to best update your predictions when provided with information of variable trustworthiness from multiple sources.

The aim of the session is to not just improve the accuracy of your own predictions, but also to get better at updating your beliefs when faced with conflicting information.

The structured part of the evening will kick off at 7:30pm sharp, with the exercises concluding at 9pm. Before and after the event will be informal discussion, where you will have a chance to discuss material from the Less Wrong sequences, meet other interesting people, and investigate rationality techniques that could be beneficial to you.

Meet us at the usual venue, which is again being generously provided by TrikeApps. Doors should be open from 6:30pm to late, and it is suggested to eat dinner beforehand. Call me on 0407943917 for directions or for access. Looking forward to overcoming some biases with you all!