The Greenville Investor's Business Daily Meetup Group Message Board › October trading themes - update

October trading themes - update

jason
jason.sumner
Hendersonville, NC
Post #: 20
These are the monthly notes to myself that you all might find interesting:

Market getting a bit tired after the follow through day of July 26 (over 10 weeks ago, which is a long time for this IBD measure)

9/12 UPDATE – total dist. Days down to 5 as dist. Days over 30 days old start to drop off and the last 2 weeks have seen the market flat.
10/3 UPDATE – total dist. Days now up to 12 which I consider a caution area. So that means that the 3 indexes have averaged 1 distribution a day per week over the last month.
1. HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE --- with or without O’bama care – its coming down the pike… I had ATHN earlier in the year and sold it a bit too early for a nice profit.
HMSY --- I own now .. 114 day long cup with handle --- bouncing around the buy area of $34.83 now.
9/12 update – traded down to 33.00 on low vol… but needs to get going soon or this one will be sold.
9/25 update – still hanging in around 33.00,but this one really needs to happen soon or will be sold
2. CAR DEALERS --- . There is a coming big consolidation going on with the publically held dealers gobbling up the old family dealerships.
LAD - Lithium Motors is the West and North West.
9/12 – humming along nicely above the pivot at 28.00 .. trading at 31.78 slightly above buy area.
9/25 - “ “….still humming along… I have a sell order in at 33.50 – near 20% “take profit area”
10/3- removed the above sell order as this stock continues to climb nicely along the top of the Bollinger band…
3. GOLD – mmmmm – may finally be moving --- but still not sure on this one.. If Draghi gets the OK from Frauh Merkel and the Germans to release the dogs – then Europe may have the mother of all QE’s… but still not sure..
GLD – I own and appears to have broken a 6 month down channel… but I think if this thing really starts rolling – buy the Junior Minors index – GDXJ
9/12 update – have sold GLD and bought GDXJ at 22.86.
9/25 update – GDXJ at 25.00… Gold appears to be in a bit of a consolidation in the last week as we sort out the meaning of QE3 (Positive for Gold) and continuing World slowdown(a negative)
4. MEXICO TRADE --- something is happening with cross border trade between US and Mexico… I can tell you first hand why it doesn’t shock me that exports from China in July were up but 1% year over year (unimaginable a couple of years ago).. The effective cost of buying manufactured goods in Mexico (and Central America) is getting closer and closer to the Middle Kingdom..
KSU – Kansas City Southern owns lots of tracks in Mexico (not just run through trains) and 50% of their revenue is now intermodal freight both ways – US/Mexico…
9/12 update – trading at 81.52…. extended from 75.26 pivot
9/25 update – traded off to 77.50 as Transports sold off – more concern about sluggish world economy… but this chart still looks ok here, but needs a close watch.
5. LIONS GATE – got to have one outlier..
LGF - Producer of Hunger Games, Mad Men, Anger Management- and lots of other sketchy AMC type shows… They have gotten the OK from China to bring Hunger Games there. They will eat it up there. And if that was not enough, I get a call last night from the LGF proxy service to make sure to vote with management… Apparently Mr.Geiko himself (Carl Ichan) is prowling around .
9/12 UPDATE – still in buy region today at 15.10…
9/25 update – still in buy region at 15.25 – nice looking ‘square box’ consolidation.
10/3 – still performing nicely.. coming up to another buy point at the top of a square box..15.97 next buy point.
6. XXIA – in a Flat Base after a big run up a month ago…test equipment for cable companies.. good looking flat base (about 8 weeks) after big pop after earnings.
Trading at 16.20 (16.40 is top of this flat base).
FUTURE IDEAS:
KORS – Michael Kors --- got beat up with luxury group after Burberry crashed a few days ago… looks interesting at 50 to 51
REGN Mascular Degen. Drug. Leading cause of adult blindness. In buy range now at $150.00..out of 16 wk consolidation. Big sales and earnings momentum gains.
IACI – Interactive Corp…Barry Dillard is hard charging CEO – owns match.com , hotels.com ,etc.. in a 38 day flat base now
PII (Polaris-off road vehicles) , CRI (Carters Children Clothing)..both in buy area now
WWWW - Web.com building a nice base.
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