... Then A Miracle Occurs

This month’s topic is about understanding and predicting the trajectory of Humanity’s Transition. Specifically

• To what degree can we predict the trajectory?
• How do we factor in the idea of a phase shift - akin to a modelling miracle?
• How do we emotionally deal with the uncertainty?

Here is some background that might help, followed by a suggestion to watch a 16 minute extract of a video.
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Since computers became powerful enough (the 1970s), we have been creating models of the world as a system. The prime example is probably the World3 model (from the Club of Rome) and it’s successors and refinements. (See Wikipedia and this article for good overviews).

The summary prediction (with all caveats applied) is that, unless we make serious changes to society, we are heading towards some form of collapse: this conclusion is, obviously, core to this Meetup’s purpose.

The usual criticisms of the model are that

• it’s too simple - it doesn’t take into account enough factors
• it’s too complex - the conclusions are obvious: on a finite planet with limited resources, constant growth will obviously hit a boundary (”limits to growth”)

But perhaps it goes deeper. Can a systems view adequately describe or model what we are really interested in? Here are four arguments suggesting not:

• Systems views only take into account external factors: Integral Theory’s Quadrant model (see this past Meetup) argues it’s essential to consider the internal dimensions as well (psychology and culture)
• … and as a consequence, proposed solutions miss essential components, such as inner development (see this past Meetup).
• Systems views, although “systemic”, are still limited to understanding that’s based on a reduction into component parts. The wholistic, embodied understanding cannot be modelled (see this past Meetup)
• Systems views cannot predict phase shifts

It’s too easy to end up being despondent about the future of humanity: all the predictions suggest a collapse unless we change, and there is little evidence that change can happen fast enough. But phase shifts happen. And, given the turmoil facing humanity, a phase shift seems highly likely.

The trick is to get ‘comfortable’ with living with that uncertainty, and to work out our role despite it. (Which pretty much sums up the essence of HTOD).

The 8-minute extract (starting 52mins) of this video with Daniel Schmachtenberger and Nate Hagens provides an evocative description of phase shifts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTFqnPEyweE&t=3100s
And the next 8 minutes leads into a deeper description of living with the uncertainty, and (despite it) still being motivated to do something.

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Keywords
humanity, environmental awareness, politics, philosophy, spiritual growth, economics, ecological economics, intentional communities, geopolitics, open sources, the commons, activism, idealism, capitalism, sustainable agriculture, religion, consciousness, inequality, enlightenment, education, autocracy, corporatism