Agile:MK July - Introduction to Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Making

with Dr Andy Carmichael (90-minute Workshop)

This interactive session will introduce several concepts required for using a “probabilistic”, rather than deterministic, approach to forecasting project deliveries and for making effective decisions with probabilistic data. The workshop consists of a presentation, small group games, simulations and calculations, individual worksheets, and the use of some spreadsheets and other tools that are applicable to real projects. Topics introduced include:

- The flaw of averages, the drunkard’s walk, a smiling payback function (and other surprises)
- Decisions to maximise value
- Little’s Law and its applicability
- Typical metrics from flow systems and the most useful graphs to display them
- Using Monte Carlo systems to forecast delivery dates
- How to get started with forecasting tools
- Where to find out more

The session is suitable for anyone interested in the topic for use in development projects or general management. It is designed to stimulate your interest and encourage further investigation rather than to impart in-depth knowledge of the topics discussed. No prior knowledge of statistics or specific methods / processes is assumed.

About Andy
Andy is a coach, consultant, and business builder who has been at the forefront of process change in software development teams for many years. His clients include major players in finance, software engineering, utilities, and telecoms—as well as a number of startups and SMEs—all of which share the goals of gaining competitive advantage through increased business agility. He is active in the Kanban and Agile communities and is a Kanban Coaching Professional (KCP). Andy has edited and co-authored a number of books including (with David Anderson) the official guide to Kanban: Essential Kanban Condensed (2016). When not engrossed in technical work, he enjoys singing, golf, and entertaining, particularly when his large grown-up family comes home to visit!

Twitter: @andycarmich Blog: Improving Projects