Vasiliy Krivtsov on Bayesian Analysis of Reliability Data

Ann Arbor Chapter of the American Statistical Association
Ann Arbor Chapter of the American Statistical Association
Public group

Ann Arbor SPARK Central Innovation Center

330 E Liberty St · Ann Arbor, MI

How to find us

SPARK is on 330 E Liberty St, Ann Arbor, MI 48104. Parking is available at the Library parking structure , or on the street. Please use the entrance on the north side, leading *downward* (SPARK is in the bottom level).

Location image of event venue


Our February meeting will feature Vasiliy Krivtsov, a reliability expert from Ford Motor Company, talking about 'A Practical Procedure for Bayesian Analysis of Reliability Data'. We will meet at SPARK (330 E. Liberty St, Ann Arbor). Pizza at 6, talk at 6:30.

The even is free, and all are welcome!


Practical use of the Bayesian reliability analysis is often hindered by the difficulties related to quantification of the prior information. Opposite to the Exponential distribution, the Weibull distribution requires a two-dimensional joint prior. We propose a simple procedure, wherein the prior data can be taken in terms of a simple probability paper plot. Based on this and current test data, we derive not only posterior estimates of the Weibull parameters, but also the posterior estimate of the reliability function along with the respective credibility intervals. Real-world case studies are used as an illustration. We also show that the proposed procedure can be applied to any parametric lifetime distribution, not necessarily limited to the location–scale family.


Vasiliy Krivtsov is the Director of Reliability Analytics at the Ford Motor Company. He also holds the position of Adjunct Associate Professor of Reliability Engineering at the University of Maryland, where he teaches a graduate course on Advanced Reliability Data Analysis. Krivtsov has earned a PhD degree in EE and another PhD in Reliability Engineering. He is the author and co-author of over 60 professional publications, including 2 books on Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis, 9 patented inventions and 6 trade secret inventions on statistical algorithms for Ford. He is a Vice Chair of the International Reliability Symposium (RAMS®) Tutorials Committee and a Senior Member of IEEE. Vasiliy is an avid bicyclist, chess player and was spotted in some Hollywood movies as an episodic scene actor.