How do we get better at predicting future events?
Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov, the co-founders of Pytho LLC, will describe their research based on methods such as Superforecasting, crowdsourcing, machine learning, system design and entertainment.
Joseph and Atanasov met as researchers in the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)-funded Good Judgment Project team, where Regina was a top Superforecaster and researcher and Pavel was a post-doctoral scholar working under Dr. Philip Tetlock, the co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
In this meetup, Joseph and Atanasov will describe the principles of Superforecasting and their research and how they are applying these to a domain relevant by the pandemic: forecasting the outcomes of clinical trials. The pair will discuss Human Forest, a new system they are testing as part of their current National Science Foundation-funded research into predicting the availability of new drugs, including COVID-19 vaccines and treatments. The competition will pit forecasters of varying backgrounds against machine learning models. Joseph and Atanasov welcome interested attendees to sign up as Human Forest research participants.