Social Drinks @Bank of England For Investors/Strategists/Traders/Quants

Monthly social & networking for us to get know each other over drinks, have a bit of banter and share opinions on state of markets & economies and how we should be positioned in terms of short to medium term trades/investments.

Objective here will be to share our thoughts (it's always useful to hear contrarian views and most critically why people think it), acquisition of knowledge and coming away with some potential trade/investment ideas informed through taking a balanced view) but let's not forget this will be a social so we'll have some much needed fun as well!

It will be run in conjunction with my investing & trading group so total RSVPs will be higher than what you see here. Please register at following link if you want stay updated on relevent future events and see the other RSVPs: https://www.meetup.com/investing-trading-macroeconomics-financial-markets/

Some potential market impacting themes & latest hot global developments to ponder:

1. Start of US Fed tightening and implications for global asset prices (stocks, US dollar, crypo, bond yields, property) and outllook for inflation & growth.
2. Current valuations and risk of market crash and or bear market for the major indices (Nasdax already hit bear in March with some junk tech stocks down by 90%), Are we in a bear market rally from the March lows (my view we are) or will we see new highs soon as continuance of existing cyclical bull? The current disconnect between equities and bonds. One is likely wrong - which one?
3. Geo political events including but not limited to Russian invasion, financial sanctions and spillovers to global markets and economies. Also keeping a close eye on the Chinese economy along with the political situation and full lockdowns of major cities (Shanghai). Something does not sound right with this variant. Does the govt have ulterior motives - crippling the the global economy?
4. Depth of Fed tightening policy and credibility. Many economists pricing in at least 6-8 rate hikes along with balance sheet reduction starting May. If inflation persists above target how far will they go before they crash the markets and cause a global recession and unemployment? Because they are so behind the curve - it might be the price they have to pay now to get inflation back under control (nearest parallel here - UK, America and Europe in 70s/80s). Is the current yield curve inversion correct in forecasting a recession or is it a false signal?
5. Market Sentiment & Earnings - seems lots of investors out there with recency bias who have never traded in high inflation regime and thought the Fed will not even raise in March still with buy the dip mentality! Beware Beware. And many don't even seem to comprehend the link between growth slowdown already underway in Europe and US which will drive lower company earnings / misses (not withstanding stock buybacks). Current sentiment based on a range of indicators seems to be out of whack with future fundamentals
6. UK interest rate rises / monetary policy tightening because of high inflation (Dec RPI 7.5%) and implications for house prices & economy
7. Risks from Covid Omicron variant - are will yet to see global economy impact or is it already now largely contained?

Lucas (Macro Economist, Trader/Investor & Ex Reuters Journalist)
DISCLAIMER- Nothing written here or any views shared in person at the meetup event should be construed as investment or trading advice