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Bi-Weekly Discussion - Trade Deals & Trade Wars

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Brian B.
Bi-Weekly Discussion - Trade Deals & Trade Wars

Details

We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

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U.S. TRADE POLICY & THE LOOMING TRADE WAR WITH CHINA

INTRODUCTION:

This discussion will provide an introduction to the current debates over international trade. We'll start off by looking at the economic consensus on a variety of trade related issues, as well considering the arguments by the minority of "hyper-globalization" skeptics among economists. Then we'll look at how international relations scholars look at international trade, in particular the correlation between economic interdependence & peace and the effects of economic sanctions. Third, we'll look at the rational & irrational factors behind voters' opposition to free trade deals. We'll finish up by assessing the chances that Trump's tariffs could spark a trade war with China and the effects that could have.

As usual for this meetup, I'll suggest that we start by considering the expert consensus so that we ground our discussion in terms of what's probably the smartest approach, while allowing for the possibility that the experts could be wrong. As you can see, in addition to articles, I've linked several polls of experts. For reference, here's links to previous discussions we've had on the expert consensus in the fields of economics and international relations - the outlines address the issues of political bias & groupthink that often cause laypeople to doubt the experts:

"Expert Consensus & Economics" (Nov. 27, 2016)
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/234098615/

"IR Scholars & The Foreign Policy Consensus" (Sept. 3, 2017)
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/240811945/

NOTE: Immediately after to this discussion, there's another discussion hosted by Skeptics in the Pub which runs from 3-5pm and which will cover some of the misconceptions & conspiracy theories that surround the issue of globalization & world trade organizations. To check out the discussion outline and RSVP, go here: https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/250590230/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the scholarly frameworks we can use for assessing the current debates over international trade. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 36 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about each section.

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I. THE ECONOMIC CONSENSUS ON INT'L TRADE, THE "ELEPHANT CHART" & "HYPER-GLOBALIZATION" SKEPTICS:

1a) Don Boudreaux, "Free Trade vs. Protectionism" (video - 3:12 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7njIlZ2xYq0

1b) FT World, "Globalization ‘not to blame’ for income woes" (video - 3:00 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz-lmP7jFV4

1c) Dani Rodrik, "Globalisation - the trade-offs" (video - 4:40 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRDIejhdtYk

II. IR CONSENSUS ON TRADE & PEACE AND THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & TARIFFS:

2a) William Spaniel, "Trade and Economic Interdependence" (video - 5:14 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ce4vrcux51E

2b) NowThis World, "Do Sanctions Against Russia And Iran Work?" (video - 2:57 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y84WKS_rOQ8

  • TRIP Program, May 2014 Snap Poll II, Questions 7-10
  • TRIP Program, Sept. 2015 Snap Poll VII: Questions 9-12
  • Most IR scholars polled felt that economic sanctions had been fairly effective at changing the behavior of Iran, but not the behavior of Russia, Syria or Venezuela
    https://trip.wm.edu/charts/#/questions/40

III. THE PSYCHOLOGY & POLITICAL SCIENCE OF TRADE PROTECTIONISM:

3a) Bryan Caplan, "4 Ways Economists Think We're All Wrong" (video - 1:21 min.)
https://youtu.be/-89qFWVrrmc

3b) Robert Reich, "The Realities of Free Trade Deals" (video - 2:04 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFBaetuDHyA

3c) Thom Hartman, "We are slaves to so-called Free Trade & the WTO" (video - 6:07 min, start at 1:36)
https://youtu.be/cD7HhV0gwyQ?t=96

IV. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A US-CHINA TRADE WAR:

4a) Global News, "Trade Wars: How they work and who they impact" (video - 5:09 min.)
https://youtu.be/P2OhfgeAWb4

4b) Gordon Chang, "What We're Doing With China Is Necessary" (video - 3:21 min.)
https://youtu.be/WvbEBIYCd60

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Cafe Walnut
703 Walnut Street · Philadelphia, PA
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