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Bi-Weekly Discussion - Are We Headed Towards WW3?

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Brian B.
Bi-Weekly Discussion - Are We Headed Towards WW3?

Details

We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

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ARE WE HEADED TOWARDS WORLD WAR 3?
HOW WILL STEVEN PINKER'S "BETTER ANGELS" CONTEND WITH CLIMATE CHANGE, THE THUCYDIDES TRAP, WMD PROLIFERATION, AND CYBERWARFARE?

INTRODUCTION:

Following up on our meetup from last time where we addressed what causes wars, this time we'll look at current trends that could influence the chances for international conflict in the near future.

Let's start with the good news... As some of you may be aware, several scholars have tried to push back on the widespread doomsaying in the popular media and point out that, in the long term, the levels of violence within societies (measured in homicides per capita) and between societies (measured in war deaths per capita) have decreased over time. The best known case for the "decline of violence thesis" was made by Steven Pinker in his book "The Better Angels of Our Nature". Pinker identified 5 historical forces that have favored humanity's peaceable motives and have driven multiple declines in violence, especially since the Enlightenment of the late 18th century:
(1) The Leviathan – the rise of the modern nation-state and judiciary "with a monopoly on the legitimate use of force," which "can defuse the [individual] temptation of exploitative attack, inhibit the impulse for revenge, and circumvent... self-serving biases."
(2) Commerce – the rise of "technological progress [allowing] the exchange of goods and services over longer distances and larger groups of trading partners," so that "other people become more valuable alive than dead" and "are less likely to become targets of demonization and dehumanization."
(3) Feminization – increasing respect for the "interests and values of women."
(4) Cosmopolitanism – the rise of forces such as literacy, mobility, and mass media, which "can prompt people to take the perspectives of people unlike themselves and to expand their circle of sympathy to embrace them."
(5) The Escalator of Reason – an "intensifying application of knowledge and rationality to human affairs," which "can force people to recognize the futility of cycles of violence, to ramp down the privileging of their own interests over others', and to reframe violence as a problem to be solved rather than a contest to be won.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature

Now for the bad news... There's several new countervailing forces that many international relations scholars think could counter the positive effects of Steven Pinker's "better angels", and in this discussion we'll review 4 of them:
(1) "Malthusian Conflict" brought on by population growth, climate change & dwindling resources (especially fresh water & food);
(2) The so-called "Thucydides Trap" that leads to conflict between an established world power and a rising power - in this case, China as a potential challenger to the United States' status as the global superpower;
(3) Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), in particular the spread of nuclear weapon technology (we'll save biowarfare technology for a future meetup);
(4) The Rise of Cyberwarfare which could potentially allow minor powers or terrorists to wield power comparable to WMDs if they can collapse a country's electrical grid.

How can we get a sense of what the foreign policy experts think about these risks? Well, we'll delve into this in greater depth below under each subtopic, but briefly there's 4 good sources we can look at - the first 2 deal exclusively with international conflict, while the latter 2 also look at the risk of major accidents & natural disasters as well:

  1. The College of William & Mary's TRIP Program that surveyed about 1,500 American international relations scholars between 2014 & 2016 - https://trip.wm.edu/home/index.php/surveys/snap-polls
  2. The Council on Foreign Relations annual "Preventative Priorities Survey" - https://www.cfr.org/report/preventive-priorities-survey-2018
  3. The World Economic Forum's annual Global Risks Report - http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2018/global-risks-2018-fractures-fears-and-failures/
  4. The Global Challenges Foundation's annual Global Catastrophic Risks report - https://api.globalchallenges.org/static/files/GCF-Annual-report-2018.pdf

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

First of all, this meetup builds on our last one entitled "What Causes War?", so it would be helpful for those of you who didn't attend to review the discussion outline to get a sense of what international relations scholars tend to see as the major economic, strategic & ideological factors behind interstate conflict: https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/dxmsjqyxpbgb/

Back in September, we had a meetup entitled "Can We Predict Geopolitical Conflict?" which is also worth checking out. We talked about Philip Tetlock's book "Expert Political Judgement" which cast doubt on the predictive powers of experts, but we also discussed Tetlock's "Good Judgement Project", a geopolitical forecasting project that has shown that even amateurs can make relatively accurate geopolitical forecasts if they master a specific skillset:
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/254920242/

Thirdly, the Skeptics in the Pub meetup had a discussion last year in May on "The Historical Study of Violence" that's relevant to this discussion. Here's a link to that outline:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/239822337/

In the outline for the Skeptic discussion, look at the 1st section that addressed Steven Pinker's "decline of violence" thesis and Nicholas Nassim Taleb's objections that the so-called "Long Peace" since WWII could just be a statistical illusion. Taleb, writing with a mathematician, Pasquale Cirillo, released a paper in 2015 with a detailed analysis of the statistics of violent warfare going back some 2000 years. The paper emphasized the properties of the tails of the distribution of warfare —i.e.  the likelihood of extreme events— and it strongly suggested that hopes of a future with significantly less war are NOT supported by anything in the recent trend towards relative peace.

Also, article #10 listed in the outline's 3rd section is also relevant to the 1st section of this outline that deals with the possibility of a Malthusian catastrophe. In the Skeptic discussion, we looked at a paper by Safa Motesharrei that used a model that predicted a near-term "civilizational collapse" due to a combination of resource depletion & income inequality. The paper cited the historian Joseph Tainter, but when he was reached for comment Tainter said the study was "deeply flawed" because "there is no evidence that elite consumption caused ancient societies to collapse".

Note that in the 4th section of today's discussion we'll be talking about the rise of "cyberwarfare" - that can mean several things involving computers networks: espionage, sabotage, and/or information warfare with propaganda. We'll mostly focus on sabotage today, but we discussed the rise of information warfare in the 5th section of a meetup this spring on "Foreign Influence":
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/xvbrznyxfbxb/

Also, FYI: The Skeptics in the Pub meetup will be hosting a discussion directly after this one, from 3-5pm, on "Nuclear Weapons & Nuclear Myths". While our discussion will touch upon nuclear proliferation, their discussion will address the related topics of nuclear winter, missile defense, EMP attacks, and dirty bombs. To check out the discussion outline and RSVP, go here:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/lckqkqyxpbxb/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the future of war. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 47 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. OVERPOPULATION, CLIMATE CHANGE & MALTHUSIAN CONFLICTS:

  • DOES POPULATION GROWTH CORRELATE WITH THE FREQUENCY OF WARS IN THE PAST?

  • SHOULD FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH CONCERN US, OR IS IT TAPERING OFF?

  • WILL CLIMATE CHANGE CREATE MORE CONFLICTS? IF SO, HOW?

  • IS WATER & FOOD SCARCITY INCREASING, AND IF SO COULD THAT START MORE WARS?

1a) Grist, “Can climate change cause war?” (video - 3:19 min.)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4IMnDpLBdLU

1b) Joe Hanson, "Defusing the Population Bomb" (video - 8:21 min, listen to 6:00)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXUkameA0r8

II. GRAHAM ALLISON'S "THUCYDIDES TRAP" & THE SHIFT FROM HU JINTAO'S "PEACEFUL RISE" POLICY TO XI JINPING'S "CHINESE DREAM":

  • DOES HISTORY GIVE US A ROUGH PROBABILITY OF WAR BETWEEN A RISING POWER & AN ESTABLISHED POWER?

  • WOULD CHINA'S RISK A WAR WITH THE U.S. TO EXPAND ITS CLAIMS IN THE EAST & SOUTH CHINA SEA & RETAKE TAIWAN? IS THERE AN "APPEASEMENT TRAP"?

  • SINCE CHINA'S NOT A DEMOCRACY, ARE THEY MORE WILLING TO SACRIFICE THEIR OWN CITIZENS IN A WAR?

  • DO TRADE & INVESTMENT TIES BETWEEN CHINA & THE U.S. DECREASE THE PROBABILITY OF WAR?

2a) Graham Allison, "Unpacking Thucydides's Trap" (video - 2:31 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAJ6SXMb-YI

2b) William Spaniel, "The Rise of China" (video - 10:47 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9C6raLKFwQ

III. NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION, NUCLEAR TERRORISM & THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE THEORY:

  • AS MORE COUNTRIES DEVELOP THE TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITY TO BUILD NUCLEAR WEAPONS, IS NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION INEVITABLE? OR WILL RISING POWERS CALCULATE THEY'RE SAFER WITHOUT NUKES?

  • HOW LIKELY IS NUCLEAR TERRORISM, AND COULD IT PROVOKE A FULL-SCALE NUCLEAR WAR?

  • DOES NUCLEAR DETERRENCE HELP AVOID MAJOR POWER WARS? COULD IT BE UNDONE BY A REGIONAL CONFLICT PROVOKED BY THE "STABILITY-INSTABILITY PARADOX"?

  • SHOULD NUCLEAR & CONVENTIONAL FORCES BE “DISENTAGLED” TO AVOID ESCALATION?

  • WOULD THE U.S. BE SAFER IF NUCLEAR STOCKPILES WERE REDUCED DOWN TO A LEVEL SUFFICIENT FOR "MINIMAL DETERRENCE"? COULD RUSSIA & CHINA BE PERSUADED TO DO THE SAME WITH ARMS TREATIES?

3a) Myles Bess w/ Joe Hanson, "Why Only 9 Countries Have Nuclear Weapons" (video - 7:23 min, listen to 6:50)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jfv-uvwF14

3b) Matthew Bunn, "Six Ways to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism" (video - 3:53 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INwA6T5PRfk

IV. CYBERWARFARE, CYBERTERRORISM & THE POSSIBILITY OF A "CYBER WORLD WAR":

  • COULD CYBERTERRORISTS SABOTAGE U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE (E.G. DAMS, POWER PLANTS, TRANSIT) IN A WAY THAT WOULD KILL ABOUT AS MANY PEOPLE AS THE 9/11 ATTACK?

  • COULD A SURPRISE CYBERATTACK FROM ANOTHER NATION ALONE CAUSE AS MUCH DAMAGE TO THE U.S. MILITARY AS PEARL HARBOR?

  • CAN CYBERATTACKS BE DETERRED? WOULD A RETALIATORY MILITARY STRIKE EVER BE APPROPRIATE?

  • IS THE RISK OF CYBERATTACKS BEING HYPED BY THE CYBERSECURITY INDUSTRY?

4a) Al Jazeera w/ Hector Monsegur & Mikko Hypponen, "How big is the threat of cyberwar?" (video - 9:25 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4D-FzaQq_ZY

4b) RT w/ Jim Harper & Sean Lawson, "Is cyberwar hype fueling a cybersecurity-industrial complex?" (video - 3:49 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mrhSO3o538

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