Bi-Weekly Discussion - Are We Headed Towards WW3?
Details
We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.
Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.
The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.
ARE WE HEADED TOWARDS WORLD WAR 3?
HOW WILL STEVEN PINKER'S "BETTER ANGELS" CONTEND WITH CLIMATE CHANGE, THE THUCYDIDES TRAP, WMD PROLIFERATION, AND CYBERWARFARE?
INTRODUCTION:
Following up on our meetup from last time where we addressed what causes wars, this time we'll look at current trends that could influence the chances for international conflict in the near future.
Let's start with the good news... As some of you may be aware, several scholars have tried to push back on the widespread doomsaying in the popular media and point out that, in the long term, the levels of violence within societies (measured in homicides per capita) and between societies (measured in war deaths per capita) have decreased over time. The best known case for the "decline of violence thesis" was made by Steven Pinker in his book "The Better Angels of Our Nature". Pinker identified 5 historical forces that have favored humanity's peaceable motives and have driven multiple declines in violence, especially since the Enlightenment of the late 18th century:
(1) The Leviathan – the rise of the modern nation-state and judiciary "with a monopoly on the legitimate use of force," which "can defuse the [individual] temptation of exploitative attack, inhibit the impulse for revenge, and circumvent... self-serving biases."
(2) Commerce – the rise of "technological progress [allowing] the exchange of goods and services over longer distances and larger groups of trading partners," so that "other people become more valuable alive than dead" and "are less likely to become targets of demonization and dehumanization."
(3) Feminization – increasing respect for the "interests and values of women."
(4) Cosmopolitanism – the rise of forces such as literacy, mobility, and mass media, which "can prompt people to take the perspectives of people unlike themselves and to expand their circle of sympathy to embrace them."
(5) The Escalator of Reason – an "intensifying application of knowledge and rationality to human affairs," which "can force people to recognize the futility of cycles of violence, to ramp down the privileging of their own interests over others', and to reframe violence as a problem to be solved rather than a contest to be won.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature
Now for the bad news... There's several new countervailing forces that many international relations scholars think could counter the positive effects of Steven Pinker's "better angels", and in this discussion we'll review 4 of them:
(1) "Malthusian Conflict" brought on by population growth, climate change & dwindling resources (especially fresh water & food);
(2) The so-called "Thucydides Trap" that leads to conflict between an established world power and a rising power - in this case, China as a potential challenger to the United States' status as the global superpower;
(3) Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), in particular the spread of nuclear weapon technology (we'll save biowarfare technology for a future meetup);
(4) The Rise of Cyberwarfare which could potentially allow minor powers or terrorists to wield power comparable to WMDs if they can collapse a country's electrical grid.
How can we get a sense of what the foreign policy experts think about these risks? Well, we'll delve into this in greater depth below under each subtopic, but briefly there's 4 good sources we can look at - the first 2 deal exclusively with international conflict, while the latter 2 also look at the risk of major accidents & natural disasters as well:
- The College of William & Mary's TRIP Program that surveyed about 1,500 American international relations scholars between 2014 & 2016 - https://trip.wm.edu/home/index.php/surveys/snap-polls
- The Council on Foreign Relations annual "Preventative Priorities Survey" - https://www.cfr.org/report/preventive-priorities-survey-2018
- The World Economic Forum's annual Global Risks Report - http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2018/global-risks-2018-fractures-fears-and-failures/
- The Global Challenges Foundation's annual Global Catastrophic Risks report - https://api.globalchallenges.org/static/files/GCF-Annual-report-2018.pdf