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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Here's the link to the event: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86324674553?pwd=Z2FwaE9aV3ByeGNkTHpMcklMSDhmQT09

Meeting ID: 863 2467 4553
Passcode: 871245

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CAN WE PREDICT GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS? AN INTRO TO THE EMERGING FIELD OF GEOPOLITICAL FORECASTING

INTRODUCTION:

This discussion will look at the emerging field of geopolitical forecasting, with a particular focus on current efforts to predict various forms of conflict both between states & within states. Current developments in geopolitical forecasting in the U.S. stem mostly from a geopolitical forecasting tournament, the "Aggregative Contingent Estimation" (ACE) program, which was run by the U.S. intelligence community's "Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity" (IARPA) from 2011 to 2015. The ACE program engaged tens of thousands of forecasters and drew over one million forecasts across roughly 500 questions of geopolitics relevant to U.S. national security. Typical questions included things like:

  • "What is the chance that a member will withdraw from the European
    Union by [target date]?"
  • "What is the likelihood of naval clashes claiming over 10 lives in the
    East China Sea by [target date]?"
  • "How likely is the head of state of Venezuela to resign by [target
    date]?"
    The tournament challenged several groups at academic institutions to come up with innovative methods of recruiting gifted forecasters, methods of training them in basic principles of probabilistic reasoning, methods of forming teams that are more than the sum of their individuals, and methods of aggregating predictions that most effectively distill the wisdom of the crowd.

The group that won this tournament was the Good Judgement Project (GJP), organized by UPenn political scientist Philip Tetlock. Using personality-trait tests, the researchers at GJP were able to select forecasting participants with less cognitive bias than the average person & train them in probabilistic reasoning. As the forecasting contest continued, the researchers were able to find so-called "superforecasters" who were in the top 2% for prediction accuracy. Amazingly, the superforecasters in GJP who only had access to publicly available information were reportedly 30% better than intelligence analysts with access to classified information.

The GJP's findings on what traits & methods allow successful geopolitical forecasting were laid out in his 2015 book, "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction". The GJP surprisingly found that good forecasting does not require a PhD in political science or statistics, powerful computers or access to classified intelligence, and amateurs working part-time could potentially beat intelligence analysts provided they followed the best practices developed by Tetlock. These best practices were summarized at the end of Tetlock's book in his "Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters". For our purposes here, the most pertinent rules are:
(2) Break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems, using Fermi estimates.
(3) Strike the right balance between "inside" (event-specific) and "outside" (reference class) views.
(4) Strike the right balance between under- and overreacting to new evidence, by using Bayesian-style updating.
(5) Look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem, and consider multiple theories & models.

Unfortunately, Tetlock's book does NOT provide any advice specifically for predicting geopolitical conflict (maybe due to IARPA secrecy), but it does suggest that by studying the theoretical models of geopolitical conflict and sifting through publicly available information on the latest developments in international relations we could predict conflicts in the short term (roughly the next 1-2 years) at a rate significantly better than chance. This discussion aims to familiarize members with some of the theoretical models of geopolitical conflict & current methods of predicting conflict.

RELEVANT INFO FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In terms of the 1st part of our discussion, it may be helpful to refer back to our last meetup entitled "What Causes Wars?" We started by looking at the realist view of states as "rational unity actors" and breakdowns in the "bargaining model" as the cause of wars. We then looked at constructivist critiques of this model based on cognitive biases in leaders, media influences on the populace, gender roles & honor cultures as factors that incline a nation towards militarism, and the role of ethnic & religious differences in exacerbating conflicts.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/mxpscsyccmbzb/

Back in March, we had a meetup entitled "Are We Headed Towards WW3?" where we discussed Steven Pinker's claims about the historic decline in warfare, especially post-WW2, and how climate change, the rise of China, nuclear proliferation, and the rise of cyberwarfare may increase the odds of a major power conflicts in the 21st century. We also discussed why some of these concerns may be exaggerated in the media.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/dwjgdsyccfblc/

The Skeptics meetup had a discussion in May of 2017 on "The Historical Study of Violence" that's relevant to this discussion. In the 1st section that addressed Steven Pinker's "decline of violence" thesis, they looked at Nicholas Nassim Taleb's objections that the so-called "Long Peace" since WWII could just be a statistical illusion. Taleb released a paper in 2015 with an analysis of the statistics of warfare going back 2000 years that emphasized the tails of the distribution of warfare —i.e.  the likelihood of extreme events— and it strongly suggested that hopes of a future with significantly less war are NOT supported by anything in the recent trend towards relative peace.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/239822337/

We had a meetup on "Understanding Political Violence" back in January which addressed some issues relevant to the 3rd & 4th sections of our meetup. In terms of tactics, we looked at Herbert H. Haines' "radical flank effect" & Eric Chenoweth's "Rule of 3.5%", which both have to do with mobilizing protesters & winning public support for political change. In terms of patterns of conflict, we looked at Peter Turchin's "structural-demographic theory" which posits 3 intersecting social cycles that drive conflict (i.e. popular immiseration, intra-elite competition, state fragility).
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/275835602/

Since we're considering the causes of revolts & coups in Part 3, it may also be worth looking at the first half of the outline from a meetup we had in Feb. 2017. We looked at Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's selectorate theory from "The Dictator's Handbook" and Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson's institutional theory from their book "Why Nations Fail", and both dealt the way rulers must gauge the portion of the populace they have to satisfy in order to stay in power. In a "rentier state" whose economy is based primarily on resource extraction, the ruler's power base is small, whereas in a modern industrialized nation with an educated populace, the power base is typically much larger. Coups seem to be more likely when the government can't pay the military, and popular revolts seem to be more likely when an economic crisis affects the ability to placate the masses.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/jlzgxlywdbgb/

Back in September, the Skeptics had a meetup that addressed competing explanations of the 9/11 attacks, the 2003 Iraq invasion, and U.S. intervention in the civil wars in Libya & Syria. It's worth considering how the uncertainty in predictions we'll discuss here could've contributed to the failure to anticipate the 9/11 attacks, the lack of WMDs in Iraq, the collapse of Libya after Gaddafi's death, Assad's use of chemical weapons in Syria, and the rise of ISIS in Iraq: https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/sxpscsyccmbzb/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of geopolitical forecasting & current efforts to predict conflict. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just read the numbered videos linked under each section - this should take about 60 minutes total to get through. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the 4 topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section. I've listed questions under each section which we'll do our best to address.

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I. PREDICTING INTERSTATE WARS:

  • CAN WE PREDICT THE ONSET OF WARS WITH THE BARGAINING MODEL & RATIONAL, UNITARY ACTOR ASSUMPTION?
  • HAVE NUCLEAR DETERRENCE & FREER TRADE MADE MAJOR WARS LESS LIKELY AFTER WW2 BY MAKING THEM MORE RISKY & LESS BENEFICIAL?
  • CAN CONFLICTS OVER ACCESS TO STRATEGIC RESOURCES & COMMODITY PRICES PREDICT INTERSTATE WARS?
  • IS THE CFR'S PREVENTATIVE PRIORITIES SURVEY ACCURATE?
  • CAN WATCHING TROOPS MOVEMENTS VIA SATELLITE HELP?
  • CAN NEWS REPORTS & SOCIAL MEDIA ALLOW US TO GAUGE A POPULACE'S INTENTIONS & WAR READINESS?
  1. William Spaniel, "Understanding War" (video - 6:51 min.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bq1YHbFTAuE

1b) Kurzgesagt, "Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained" (video - 5:45 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbuUW9i-mHs

1c) Michael Klare, "The coming resource wars" (video - 5:29 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETEOdtIm_ac

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II. PREDICTING WMD DEVELOPMENT & USE:

  • CAN WE PREDICT WHETHER OR NOT A COUNTRY WILL DEVELOP WMDs USING SELECTORATE THEORY?
  • CAN SPY SATELLITES & WEAPONS INSPECTIONS PREDICT WMD CAPABILITIES?
  • IS IT DANGEROUS TO ASSUME ALL LEADERS WITH WMDs ARE RATIONAL & DETERRABLE?
  • ARE BIOWEAPONS MORE DANGEROUS THAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS?
  • ARE CHEMICAL WEAPONS MORE AKIN TO CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS LIKE BOMBS?
  1. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, "A Prediction for the Future of Iran" (video - 19:05 min.)
    https://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future

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III. PREDICTING MILITARY COUPS & POPULAR REVOLTS:

  • WHAT UNDERLYING FACTORS CAN HELP PREDICT CIVIL UNREST & WHEN IT'S LIKELY TO LEAD TO A MILITARY COUP OR POPULAR REVOLT?
  • HOW DO THE CAUSES OF A COUP VS A REVOLUTION DIFFER & CAN SELECTORATE THEORY HELP EXPLAIN THIS?
  • WHAT FACTORS ARE USED IN "COUPCAST" AND HOW'S ITS TRACK RECORD?
  • CAN WE PREDICT THE LIKELY RESULT - I.E. DEMOCRACY, AUTOCRACY, OR STATE FAILURE?

3a) Vice Motherboard w/ Yaneer Bar Yam, "The Math That Predicted the Arab Spring" (video - 2:47 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpUSNxuuwfA

3b) The Economist, "Predicting unrest in the Arab world [in 2011]" (video - 2:21 min.)
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6fblcp

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IV. PREDICTING STATE FAILURE, CIVIL WARS & GENOCIDES:

  • WHAT UNDERLYING FACTORS CAN HELP US PREDICT WHEN ETHNIC, RELIGIOUS OR POLITICAL TENSIONS WITHIN A SOCIETY MIGHT LEAD TO CIVIL WAR OR MASS ATROCITIES?
  • ARE THE "POLITICAL STRESS INDICATOR" AND/OR "FRAGILE STATE INDEX" A USEFUL WAY OF MEASURING THESE TENSIONS?
  • HOW DO THEIR SCORES COMPARE WITH THE "EARLY WARNING PROJECT" RANKINGS?
  • CAN WE MONITOR DEHUMANIZING SPEECH TO HELP PREDICT THE BUILD-UP TO GENOCIDE?

4a) NowThis World, "Which Countries Are About To Collapse?" (video - 4:28 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgVmn66oK_A

4b) Jay Ulfelder, "Forecasting Conflict" (video - 17:38 min, start at 2:04)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmsPnunzgJ0#t=2m04s

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