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Bi-Weekly Discussion - Coastal Cities & Climate Change

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Brian B.
Bi-Weekly Discussion - Coastal Cities & Climate Change

Details

We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

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SAVING COASTAL CITIES FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

INTRODUCTION:

Our last discussion dealt mostly with estimating the future effects of climate change & how this justifies climate change mitigation efforts - namely cutting carbon emissions & developing renewable energy production. In this discussion, we'll shift to the topic of climate change adaptation, i.e. what should we do to prepare for some of the inevitable negative effects of climate change in the near future?

In the first section of our discussion, we'll look at how coastal cities can use urban planning & engineering principles to prepare for climate change. We'll focus especially on U.S. cities on the Gulf & Atlantic coasts where the problems of sea level rise will be exacerbated by more powerful hurricanes that could cause massive flooding.

In the second section, we'll look at some of the economic policies that can speed recovery after a hurricane & help incentivize residents to avoid building on flood plains and why those policies raise ethical dilemmas. We'll also consider why well-intended recovery policies often tend to worsen wealth inequality.

In the third & fourth sections, we'll look at how hurricanes affect the social fabric & political dynamics of cities, and we'll see why some cities come together & recover quickly from hurricanes while others devolve into civil unrest & corruption in a hurricane's wake.

WHICH COASTAL CITIES ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?

Before we discuss what coastal cities should do about the dangers posed by sea level rise & hurricanes, it's important to ask: How can we get a general sense of which coastal cities are the most vulnerable?

A good resource for determining this is a research report at Climate Central that ranks the U.S. cities most vulnerable to major coastal floods using three different metrics:

  1. The total population within the FEMA 100-year floodplain
  2. The total population within the FEMA 100-year floodplain as augmented by sea level rise projections for the year 2050
  3. The total high social vulnerability population within the same areas as group #2
    https://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-cities-most-vulnerable-major-coastal-flooding-sea-level-rise-21748

New York City, Philadelphia, Houston, Baltimore, and Miami were among the big cities with the largest high social vulnerability populations within the future FEMA 100-year floodplain, and Atlantic City and many coastal mid-sized towns in Florida round out the list.

Climate Central determined "social vulnerability" by using the "Social Vulnerability Index" (SoVI) developed by the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, which incorporates 29 different socioeconomic variables to evaluate the ability of communities to prepare and respond to environmental hazards such as floods. These variables include the poverty rate & percentage of children under 5 & seniors over 65, as well as indicators related to family structure, language barriers, vehicle availability, disabilities, and healthcare access: http://artsandsciences.sc.edu/geog/hvri/sovi®-0

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Back in April, we had a past meetup where we discussed the moral philosophy, economics, psychology & political science research on taxation. There's a moral & economic case for a "value capture" tax on "positive externalities" people gain from the state's provision of public goods (e.g. protections against extreme weather), and there's also a good case for a Pigouvian tax on "negative externalities" like carbon emissions. However, public shortsightedness & the political incentives for lawmakers make this sort of sacrifice for a long-term public benefit very difficult.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/259946508/

In our last meetup, entitled "How Should We Deal With Climate Change?", we looked at the conflicting estimates about the potential economic damages from climate change and how this leads to differing estimates for the "social cost of carbon" - i.e. the appropriate level of carbon tax to cut emissions enough to mitigate climate change while not tanking the economy. We also talked about where revenue from a carbon tax should go. While many economists would like to see this money go to subsidize renewable energy & fund climate change adaptation (e.g. protecting coastal cities), some political scientists fear a carbon tax would be too politically unpopular unless it's revenue neutral or funds a "citizen's dividend".
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/chrnnqyzjbmb/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major issues in preparing coastal cities for sea level rise & hurricanes. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 36 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. RE-ENGINEERING COASTAL CITIES FOR SEA LEVEL RISE & HURRICANES:

  • SHOULD COASTAL CITIES USE ESTIMATES OF THE FUTURE DAMAGE FROM SEA LEVEL RISE & HURRICANES TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH THEY SHOULD SPEND ON REENGINEERING THEIR BUILDINGS & INFRASTRUCTURE, OR IS IT WORTH SPENDING MORE TO AVOID INTANGIBLE COSTS?

  • SHOULD COASTAL CITIES BUILD EXPENSIVE SEA WALLS OR FOCUS ON LESS EXPENSIVE NATURAL BARRIERS?

  • SHOULD COASTAL CITIES TRY TO REDIRECT STORM WATERS WITH HUGE DRAINAGE DITCHES & TUNNELS, OR SOAK IT UP WITH GREEN SPACES & URBAN WETLANDS?

  • SHOULD CITIES EXPAND MASS TRANSIT TO EVACUATE CARLESS RESIDENTS FROM HURRICANES, OR RETROFIT BIG BUILDINGS LIKE STADIUMS TO TURN THEM INTO HURRICANE SHELTERS?

  • CAN COASTAL CITIES REVISE BUILDING CODES TO MAKE HOUSES MORE HURRICANE & FLOOD RESISTANT WITHOUT MAKING HOUSING TOO EXPENSIVE?

  • SHOULD COASTAL CITIES HARDEN THEIR ELECTRICAL GRID BY PUTTING LINES UNDERGROUND, OR BUILD MICROGRIDS POWERED BY RENEWABLE ENERGY?

  • COULD RAINWATER HARVESTING ALLEVIATE CLEAN WATER SHORTAGES AFTER HURRICANES?

1a) Vox, "New York is building a wall to hold back the ocean" (video - 5:16 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9asEJokafM

1b) Bloomberg, "Berlin is Becoming a Sponge City" (video - 4:11 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWjGGvY65jk

1c) Verge, "This hurricane-proof home can withstand powerful storms" (video - 4:26 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ge-9rARXfo

Henry Grabar, "Chicago's Deep Tunnel: Is it the solution to urban flooding or a cautionary tale?"
https://slate.com/business/2019/01/chicagos-deep-tunnel-is-it-the-solution-to-urban-flooding-or-a-cautionary-tale.html

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II. BALANCING ECONOMICS & ETHICS IN DISASTER PREPARATION & RECOVERY:

  • WHAT SHOULD WE DO WITH COASTAL TOWNS THAT CAN'T AFFORD REENGINEERING? SHOULD THE STATE & FEDERAL GOV'T SUBSIDIZE IT, OR SHOULD THESE AREAS SIMPLY BE ABANDONED?

  • IS IT IMMORAL TO ALLOW "PRICE GOUGING" AFTER HURRICANES, EVEN IF IT WOULD INCENTIVIZE BUSINESSES TO BRING MORE EMERGENCY SUPPLIES?

  • IS NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM (NFIP) A GOOD TYPE OF SOCIAL INSURANCE, OR DOES IT CREATE A "MORAL HAZARD" & INCENTIVIZE BUILDING ON FLOOD PLAINS?

  • IS FEMA'S ASSISTANCE NECESSARY AFTER HURRICANES, OR SHOULD RECOVERY COSTS BE BORNE BY STATE & LOCAL GOV'TS?

  • DO DISASTERS HAVE A STIMULUS EFFECT ON THE ECONOMY, OR IS THAT THE "BROKEN WINDOWS FALLACY"?

  • WHAT ARE THE DIRECT & INDIRECT COSTS OF HURRICANES? WHY DO THEY EXACERBATE WEALTH INEQUALITY?

2a) Matt Zwolinski, "Is Price Gouging Immoral? Should It Be Illegal?" (video - 5:03 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9QEkw6_O6w

2b) Pierre-Olivier Bastien-Dionne,"Economics of natural disasters: Moral hazard, government intervention and insurance" (video - 2:48 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJqZDtVXPUU

2c) CBS, "Natural disasters slam Americans with long-term financial impacts" (video - 1:19 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbXOb5zDf0E

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III. SOCIAL & PSYCHOLOGICAL DYNAMICS IN PUBLIC REACTIONS TO HURRICANES:

  • HAVE MORE HURRICANES & OTHER EXTREME WEATHER CONVINCED MORE AMERICANS THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL, OR HAS IT JUST BECOME THE "NEW NORMAL"?

  • WHY DON'T SOME PEOPLE HEED HURRICANE WARNINGS? IS IT MOSTLY "OPTIMISM BIAS", OR HAS MEDIA HYPE OVER MINOR STORMS LED TO A "CRY WOLF EFFECT"?

  • WHICH IS LESS STRESSFUL: EVACUATING FROM A DISASTER OR HUNKERING DOWN IN A DISASTER SHELTER?

  • DOES THE POVERTY RATE OR THE SOCIAL CAPITAL INDEX PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING WHETHER PEOPLE HELP EACH OTHER OR TURN ON EACH OTHER IN A DISASTER?

  • DO DISASTERS TEND TO INCREASE OR DECREASE ALTRUISM & SOCIAL TRUST?

  • WHAT FACTORS MADE SOME HURRICANE KATRINA SURVIVORS MORE RESILIENT THAN OTHERS?

3a) Newsy, "What makes people choose to ride out hurricanes?" (video - 1:36 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tv9OMq_Q-cQ

3b) A Partial Perspective, "The Psychology of Natural Disasters - Do Natural Disasters Make People Less Trusting?" (video - 4:15 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47zXoWFCnqY

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IV. GOOD GOVERNANCE VS CORRUPTION & THE POLITICAL EFFECTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS:

  • DO VOTERS RATIONALLY ASSESS HOW OFFICIALS HANDLE RECOVERY, OR DOES "BLIND RETROSPECTION" CAUSE VOTERS TO PUNISH THEM FOR THE DISASTER REGARDLESS?

  • DO VOTERS REWARD POLITICIANS FOR SPENDING ON DISASTER RECOVERY MORE THAN FOR SPENDING ON PREPAREDNESS?

  • DO POLITICIANS USE DISASTER AID STRATEGICALLY TO WIN VOTES?

  • DOES FEDERAL DISASTER AID OFTEN CONTAIN "PORK BARREL" SPENDING? DOES IT BREED CORRUPTION AMONG STATE & LOCAL OFFICIALS?

  • WHAT'S THE CORRUPTION RATE FOR OUR COASTAL CITIES? DOES CORRUPTION HURT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT & DISASTER RECOVERY?

  • DID BLACK VOTERS IN NEW ORLEANS BLAME FEMA FOR THE HURRICANE KATRINA DISASTER & REELECT MAYOR RAY NAGIN IN 2006 DUE TO RACIAL SOLIDARITY? DID LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY LEAD TO NAGIN'S CORRUPTION OF THE RECOVERY PROCESS?

  • WAS TED CRUZ A HYPOCRITE FOR OPPOSING AID FOR HURRICANE SANDY BUT SUPPORTING AID FOR TEXAS AFTER HURRICANE HARVEY?

4a) John Gasper: "How Does a Natural Disaster Affect Voting Patterns?" (video - 2:21 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXNraEsynmo

4b) MSNBC, "Ted Cruz hypocrite on disaster aid?" (video - 5:35 min.)
https://youtu.be/uymX1GDo_f0

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Cafe Walnut
703 Walnut Street · Philadelphia, PA
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