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Bi-Weekly Discussion - Foreign Influence: A Menace or Just Business?

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Brian B.
Bi-Weekly Discussion - Foreign Influence: A Menace or Just Business?

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We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, not too far from our summer meeting spot in Washington Square Park. The cafe is near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

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FOREIGN INFLUENCE: A MENACE TO DEMOCRACY OR JUST BUSINESS AS USUAL?

INTRODUCTION:

This meetup will act as a basic introduction to how political scientists, government law experts, and international relations scholars look at foreign influence (specifically foreign lobbying & campaign contributions, bribery & corruption, foreign news & social media propaganda) as it relates to American politics. "Hard power" - i.e. military & economic power - is very important in international relations and we'll explore its influence in later discussions, but "soft power" is a concept that is being taken increasingly seriously by international relations scholars & political pundits alike.

Technically, "soft power" encompasses a much wider array of factors than we'll consider here, such as cultural influence from pop culture exported abroad (TV, movies, music, food, clothing, etc,), tourism & exchange student programs, scientific achievements & innovation, high-profile athletic performance, philanthropy & humanitarian missions, etc. Depending on how these indirect means of influence are weighted against more direct means like diplomacy & espionage, "soft power" can range in its meaning from global prestige to psychological/information warfare capability. Typically, soft power proponents tend to think global prestige is ultimately more important. Joseph Nye, the American political scientist who pioneered the concept of "soft power", has argued that Russia's high-profile hacking campaigns have hurt its international reputation & reduced its soft power, although he doesn't discount the "sharp power" of disinformation & disruption. To learn more about the concept of "soft power", you can start by checking out the Wikipedia entry & Nye's article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_power

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-01-24/how-sharp-power-threatens-soft-power

It's also worth looking at the "Soft Power Survey" created by the UK's Institute for Government and the Canadian media company Monocle. They use 6 objective factors (digital, culture, enterprise, engagement, education, government) for 70% of the ranking and international public polling on 7 factors (cuisine, tech products, friendliness, culture, luxury goods, foreign policy, liveability) for the remain 30%. In the 2017 survey, the U.S. slipped from 1st to 3rd position, while France took the top position & the UK remains in 2nd, but China & Russia are quite a ways further down the list at 25 & 26 respectively:

https://softpower30.com/

https://softpower30.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/The-Soft-Power-30-Report-2017-Web-1.pdf

FYI: I initially tried to tackle "soft power" as it relates to the Saudi lobby back in October of 2016, around the time that the redacted 28 pages from the 9/11 Report were released. To review this material, click on the link below:
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/234167918/

Currently, "soft power" & "sharp power" have become hot topics because of the allegations of Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election. While I expect Russian meddling in the 2016 election will be one of the things we'll discuss at this meetup, I want us to try to focus more on the broader issue of foreign electoral interventions around the world. However, if you're more interested in "Russiagate", this meetup will be directly followed by another discussion from 3-5pm that focuses exclusively on what role Russia played in the election of Donald Trump. To check out the discussion outline & RSVP, go here:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/248230435/

While we are considering the effects of foreign influence on a nation's politics, we need to refer back to what we already know about elections from political science research. We should probably be suspicious of the idea that foreign campaign contributions & foreign lobbying exerts any more than a slight influence on the voting patterns of elected officials, given that political scientists don't believe that even the total amount of lobbying & campaign contributions from both domestic & foreign sources plays the straightforward role of "buying votes" that the average person assumes it does. There's often money on both sides of an issue also complicates things. At most, campaign contributions & lobbying appear to buy access to politicians who are already favorable to a special interest, and it may buy some benign neglect from those who are neutral. (However, straight-up bribery by foreign agents or foreign companies may play a larger role in persuading politicians, since although it's riskier it puts money directly in their pockets - we'll examine this issue below.)

Regarding the idea that foreign news media coverage and foreign "bots" & "fake news" on social media can have a big effect on an election, we should probably assign a low prior probability to this exerting any more than a slight influence on voter opinions. This is because political science research shows entire political campaigns - which include lots of domestic news coverage and campaign ads on both TV & social media - seem to have an almost negligible effect on election outcomes. Voters are bombarded by so much propaganda over a given election cycle that it's often very difficult to determine the effect of any one ad or article. Swaying voters is especially difficult in a highly polarized electorate with very few undecided voters or "true independents" who are open to changing their minds & voting for either party. Certainly, many people might "engage" with (i.e. see or click on) some foreign propaganda in an election cycle, but if they also "engage" with 100 times as much domestic propaganda it's hard to determine the "value added" component of the foreign material. Also, regarding the effects of any propaganda, we have to remember that if the only people who engage with it and believe it are those that already agreed with its message, it probably can't play a decisive role in tipping an election.

That said, it does look like political scientists are concerned about foreign influence on the U.S. electoral process. I found a poll of over 1,500 American political scientists -- the Bright Line Watch survey -- taken in Feb. 2017 in which they were asked a variety of questions about what they think is "important or essential to democracy" and whether or not "the U.S. mostly or fully meets this standard". As you can see, about 82% of political scientists think "no foreign electoral influence" is important or essential, but only 42% of them think the U.S. "fully or mostly meets" this criteria. Another 20% or so say the US "partly meets" it and about 8% say they're not sure, leaving 30% that say the US does not even partly meet the criteria of "no foreign influence". Unfortunately, we can't tell from the survey what specific types of influence they're concerned with, nor can we tell whether it's primarily Russia they're worried about.
http://brightlinewatch.org/results-from-the-bright-line-watch-u-s-democracy-survey/

As you can see from my discussion outline below, we'll start by addressing foreign electoral interventions in general and look at how the Dov Levin's research on the "Partisan Electoral Interventions by the Great-powers" (PEIG) dataset allows us to compare the track record of post-WWII electoral interventions by the US, Russia and several other countries.

Second, we'll look at the common, legal & overt method of foreign electoral intervention at the level of politicians - lobbying & campaign contributions. I couldn't find an index that measure this, but amounts spent by foreign lobbyists in the US and American lobbyists at the EU are publicly available.

Third, we'll turn to the more covert & sometimes illegal method of influencing politicians - bribery & "quid-pro-quo" deals. Transparency International's Global Bribery Index gives us a rough measure of the outright bribery, and we can look at laws like the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act meant to curb it. Conflicts of interest that occur when political officials can gain from blocking or enabling international business transactions are murkier, but we can also look at the laws that cover that as well.

In the fourth section, we'll look at the common, legal & overt method of foreign electoral intervention at the level of the populace - public diplomacy & state news agencies. The attempt to restrict foreign media can be roughly gauged from various international indices of "press freedom".

In the fifth & final section, we'll look at the covert use of bots (a.k.a. "sock puppets") to spread foreign propaganda online & create fake signs of widespread support for certain political issues (i.e. "astroturfing"). Freedom House has recently tried to quantify the effects of social media manipulation in their 2017 report on "Freedom on the Net". In terms of gauging countries' preparedness to defend against online information warfare, we might turn to the U.N. International Telecommunication Union's "Global Cybersecurity Index".

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major findings from political scientists & IR scholars on the ways foreign governments influence US politics. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 46 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 25 minutes on each section.

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I. FOREIGN ELECTORAL INTERVENTION & THE P.E.I.G. DATASET:

WHY DO YOU THINK WE ONLY HAVE EVIDENCE OF 36 ATTEMPTS BY RUSSIA TO INTERVENE IN FOREIGN ELECTION BETWEEN 1946-2000 BUT 80 ATTEMPTS BY THE U.S.? HOW RELEVANT IS DATA FROM THE COLD WAR TO TODAY?

WHY DO YOU THINK WE DIDN'T HAVE SUSTAINED MEDIA COVERAGE OF NETANYAHU'S ALLEGED ATTEMPT TO INTERVENE IN THE U.S. 2012 ELECTION BY TELLING AMERICANS OBAMA WASN'T TOUGH ENOUGH ON IRAN, OR THE OBAMA'S ADMINISTRATION $350K FUNDING TO THE "ONE VOICE MOVEMENT" THAT WAS USED AGAINST NETANYAHU IN ISRAEL'S 2015 ELECTION?

SHOULD WE CONSIDER SOME FORMS OF ELECTORAL INTERVENTION MORE ACCEPTABLE THAN OTHERS, OR IS IT THE END (LIKE "PROMOTING DEMOCRACY") THAT JUSTIFIES THE MEANS?

DOES A HISTORY OF ELECTORAL INTERVENTIONS BY THE U.S. UNDERMINE OUR MORAL AUTHORITY TO OBJECT TO RUSSIAN MEDDLING IN THE U.S. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

1a) Stephanie Ruhle, "How Widespread Is Russian Interference In Foreign Elections?" (video - 2:58 min., start at 1:01)
https://youtu.be/PMqpEI3epJE?t=6

1b) Ari Shapiro w/ Dov Levin, "Database Tracks History Of U.S. Meddling In Foreign Elections" (podcast - 3:34 min.)
https://www.npr.org/2016/12/22/506625913/database-tracks-history-of-u-s-meddling-in-foreign-elections

II. FOREIGN LOBBYING & CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS:

WHY DO YOU THINK THAT WE DON'T HEAR QUITE AS MUCH ABOUT THE SAUDI LOBBY AS WE DO ABOUT THE ISRAELI LOBBY?

WHY DO YOU THINK WE'VE HEARD SO LITTLE ABOUT THE TURKEY & UKRAINE LOBBIES?

SHOULD WE BE CONCERNED ABOUT FOREIGN LOBBYISTS WORKING TO SHAPE U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AT AMERICAN THINK TANKS?

DO YOU THINK THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN LOBBYING ON AMERICAN POLITICS IS OVERBLOWN, CONSIDERING THAT AMERICAN TECH COMPANIES SPENT 3 TIMES AS MUCH LOBBYING THE EU AS ALL FOREIGN LOBBYISTS SPENT ON THE U.S. 2016 ELECTIONS?

SHOULD DEMOCRACIES PROHIBIT LOBBYING & CAMPAIGN FROM NON-DEMOCRACIES?

  1. Aaron Maté / Jonathan Marshall, "RussiaGate Overshadows How Foreign Powers Buy Influence" (video - 17:17 min.)
    http://therealnews.com/t2/story:19393:RussiaGate-Overshadows-How-Foreign-Powers-Buy-Influence

III. FOREIGN BRIBERY, THE "FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT" & CONFLICTS OF INTEREST:

WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BRIBERY, CORRUPTION & CONFLICTS OF INTEREST? ARE THESE METHODS OF "BUYING" POLITICIANS MORE EFFECTIVE THAN LOBBYING & CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS?

CAN TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL'S GLOBAL BRIBERY INDEX & CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF HOW VULNERABLE A GIVEN COUNTRY'S GOV'T OFFICIALS ARE TO BRIBERY?

CAN "RULE OF LAW" RANKINGS GIVE US A SENSE OF HOW WELL A COUNTRY IS ABLE TO PROTECT ITSELF FROM CORRUPTION?

IS CORRUPTION MORE PREVALENT IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD, OR JUST MORE OBVIOUS?

WHEN COMPANIES FROM OSTENSIBLY "LOW CORRUPTION" COUNTRIES ENGAGE IN BRIBERY IN THE "HIGH CORRUPTION" COUNTRIES, SHOULD IT HURT THEIR HOME COUNTRY'S CORRUPTION RANKING? CAN LEGISLATION IN THEIR HOME COUNTRIES HELP STOP THIS?

3a) Lissette Padilla, "What Are The World's Most Corrupt Countries?" (video - 3:50 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rh_x5nUkhUo

3b) Libby Nelson @ Vox, "Donald Trump's conflicts of interest span the globe" (video - 5:00 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSDC7CCyeGY

IV FOREIGN NEWS MEDIA AS PROPAGANDA & THE "FOREIGN AGENT REGISTRATION ACT" VS PRESS FREEDOM:

HOW CAN WE GET A SENSE OF THE RELATIVE RANKINGS OF VARIOUS INTERNATIONAL NEWS AGENCIES IN TERMS OF VIEWERSHIP?

WHAT DOES MEDIA RESEARCH SUGGEST ABOUT THE PERSUASIVE EFFECTS OF FOREIGN MEDIA? ARE DEMOCRACIES MORE VULNERABLE TO HAVING THEIR POPULACE MANIPULATED BY FOREIGN MEDIA THAN NON-DEMOCRACIES?

ARE FOREIGN NEWS OUTLETS OF NON-DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES LIKE RT, CCTV, AL-JAZEERA & TELESUR MORE GUILTY OF SPREADING "FAKE NEWS" THAN WESTERN STATE NEWS OUTLETS LIKE THE BBC & VOA OR INTERNATIONAL NEWS CORPORATIONS LIKE CNN?

DO YOU THINK FORCING FOREIGN MEDIA OUTLET TO REGISTER AS "FOREIGN AGENTS", BANNING THEIR TWITTER ADS, HAVING GOOGLE DE-RANK THEM, AND YOUTUBE FLAG THEIR VIDEOS IS JUSTIFIED, OR IS IT AN ATTACK ON "FREEDOM OF THE PRESS"?

4a) Newsy, "How state media became information warfare tool" (video - 3:56 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWwMRc_kGRg

4b) VOA, "Countering Fake News, One of Media's Biggest Challenges" (video - 2:42 min.)
https://youtu.be/o32AWV3e9qQ"

V. ONLINE INFORMATION WARFARE & ITS EFFECT ON "FREEDOM ON THE NET":

WHY DO YOU THINK WE HEAR SO MUCH MORE ABOUT THE EFFECT OF RUSSIAN BOTS ON THE 2016 ELECTION & THAN THE BOTS USED BY THE TRUMP & CLINTON CAMPAIGNS? SHOULD THE USE OF BOTS & "SOCK PUPPETS" BY POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS BE ILLEGAL?

WHICH DO YOU THINK HAS A WORSE EFFECT ON INTERNET FREEDOM - "FAKE NEWS" OR THE ATTEMPTS TO FILTER OUT & CENSOR "FAKE NEWS"? SHOULD PURVEYORS OF "FAKE NEWS" BE PROSECUTED?

WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CYBERWARFARE & ONLINE INFORMATION WARFARE? CAN A STRONG CYBERSECURITY PROGRAM PROTECT AGAINST BOTH OR ARE THEY VERY DIFFERENT THREATS?

5a) Al Jazeera English w/ Sanja Kelly, "Freedom House Report: Internet freedom 'in decline' for seventh consecutive year" (video - 2:05 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cW75dBux85w

5b) Fox News w/ Samuel Wooley, "Social media bots during the election" (video - 4:46 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1kT4Agxn3Q

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