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Intelligence Failures vs Conspiracy Theories

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Brian B.
Intelligence Failures vs Conspiracy Theories

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We're hosting our discussion at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside.

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INTELLIGENCE FAILURES vs CONSPIRACY THEORIES: EVALUATING THE COMPETING EXPLANATIONS FOR U.S. FOREIGN POLICY DEBACLES

INTRODUCTION:

In our last discussion, we took a "generalist" approach to debunking conspiracy theories, i.e. we looked for general rules that govern their plausibility, such as the Bayesian interpretation of "Hanlon's Razor". For those who don't remember, Hanlon's Razor is a special version of Occam's Razor which states that it's more parsimonious to "never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by stupidity [or incompetence]". This principle doesn't preclude the possibility of conspiracies, but it leads one to assume that bad outcomes in both domestic & foreign policy are more likely to be accidents rather than conspiracies. To those familiar with military parlance, Hanlon's Razor ties in with beliefs about "Murphy's law" and the "fog of war" as the causes of failure in military operations.

This discussion will look at the notion of "intelligence failures" in what's known as the "intelligence cycle" — the process by which government agencies tasked with monitoring foreign actors collect, analyze, process, and disseminate critical information. See the Wikipedia entry on intelligence failure for a basic overview:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failure_in_the_intelligence_cycle

Intelligence agencies cannot typically authorize military actions independently, so this opens up the possibility for "policy failures" when they give the President & his national security advisors accurate information but the administration makes the wrong decision.

The idea that bad outcomes in foreign policy generally stem from "intelligence failures" and "policy failures" conflicts with the idea — prevalent among conspiracy theorists — that the U.S. government is far too powerful, well-informed & well-organized to suffer from these types of problems. Conspiracy theorists typically believe that many of the terror attacks, humanitarian crises & revolutions we see on the news were actually engineered by U.S. intelligence agencies, the military-industrial complex & policy elites (sometimes collectively referred to as the "deep state") as part of a secret agenda.

Conspiracy theories about attacks on the US typically come in 3 varieties: (1) belief that the US orchestrated a "false flag" attack in itself to justify retaliation, and (2) belief that the US allowed an enemy attack on "cannon fodder" to justify retaliation, (3) belief that the US created a "hoax" - i.e. falsely reported an attack that never occurred - to justify retaliation. In the context of the 9/11 attacks, the first 2 types of conspiracy theories are known as the "MIHOP" (Made It Happen On Purpose) and "LIHOP" (Let It Happen On Purpose) theories.

Of course, the elaborate MIHOP theories about 9/11 being an "inside job" with "controlled demolition" of the Twin Towers and a missile hitting the Pentagon are relatively easy to debunk. However, some of the LIHOP conspiracy theories for 9/11 are on their face slightly more plausible, and believers in all 3 types of conspiracy theories for other major attacks & threats to the US can muster some circumstantial evidence.

There's credible evidence that points to "neoimperialist" goals in certain US policy circles & a willingness to deceive the public. For example, proponents can point to policy papers in the public domain that support their claims of an only semi-secret plan to overthrow hostile regimes & establish U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. The classic example is the report published in 2000 by a neoconservative think tank, Project for a New American Century (PNAC), that presciently noted that the process of expanding America's military "is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century#Rebuilding_America's_Defenses_2

Another oft-cited proof of elaborate neocon plans for the Middle East comes from retired General Wesley Clark, who claimed in 2007 that during a visit to the Pentagon in the autumn of 2001 shortly after 9/11, an unnamed senior general told him that the Bush administration had a confidential paper proposing a series of regime change operations over 5 years in 7 countries: Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Libya, Sudan, Iran & Yemen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesley_Clark#Post-2004_campaign

In this meetup, we'll look at 4 common examples of what mainstream scholars describe as failures of U.S. intelligence and/or poor decision-making: (1) the 9/11 attacks, (2) the 2003 Iraq invasion, (3) the Libyan Civil War & Benghazi, and (4) the Syria Civil War & its chemical weapons attacks. We'll contrast the "intelligence failure" & "policy failure" explanations of these events with counter-arguments that these events were in fact the intentional result of the U.S. deep state attempting to dominate the Middle East by deposing hostile regimes, establishing puppet states & controlling the flow of oil & other strategic resources.

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of the conflicting theories about 9/11, the Iraq War, and the civil wars in Libya & Syria. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 47 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. DID U.S. INTELLIGENCE FAIL TO FORESEE THE 9/11 ATTACKS, OR DID BUSH LET IT HAPPEN TO CREATE A PRETEXT FOR WAR? DID THE SAUDIS AID AL-QAEDA & DID BUSH LET THEM OFF THE HOOK?

1a) Michael Hayden vs Glenn Greenwald, "9/11 as an intelligence failure" (video - 6:17 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV3CN7pNGb8

1b) David Pakman, "Docs Show Bush Warned Numerous Times Before 9/11, Ignored Warnings" (video - 3:53 min, listen to 3:25)
https://youtu.be/N6dE3RTX9bY

1c) Trace Dominguez, "What Was Saudi Arabia's Role In 9/11?" (video - 4:35 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBs19Jkil5Q

II. DID BUSH LIE ABOUT SADDAM HAVING WMDS & TIES TO AL-QAEDA, OR WERE THESE INTELLIGENCE FAILURES?

2a) Andrew Roberts, "Why America Invaded Iraq" (video - 5:44 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2tbpUqNwRU

2b) RT, "'We knew Iraq had no WMDs' - former CIA analyst [Ray McGovern]" (video - 5:32 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_Um-BsAi4M

III. WAS LIBYA BECOMING A FAILED STATE AFTER GADDAFI'S DEATH PREDICTABLE OR AN ACCIDENT? DID THE CIA FAIL TO FORESEE THE 2012 BENGHAZI ATTACK, OR WERE REQUESTS FOR MORE SECURITY IGNORED? WAS IT PRECIPITATED BY AN ANTI-MUSLIM VIDEO OR CIA ARMS SMUGGLING? WERE POTENTIAL RESCUERS TOLD TO "STAND DOWN"?

3a) RT, "Failed state of Libya ‘serves the purposes of the US’ - foreign policy analyst [Paul Craig Roberts]" (video - 5:16 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hh7P2w8u1qk

3b) Hank Green, "Benghazi Explained" (video - 9:26 min, listen to 7:30)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btlqXbH1mCM

3c) Wochit News, "Benghazi Report Leaves Weapon Trafficking A Question Mark" (video - 1:32 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e2wSGZW90w

IV. WAS NOT ENFORCING OBAMA'S "RED LINE" & SETTLING FOR (ALLEGED) DISPOSAL OF ASSAD'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN 2013 A POLICY FAILURE? ARE DIFFICULTIES IN ESTABLISHING THE SOURCE OF CHEMICAL ATTACKS AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE OR MERELY CONSPIRACY THEORIES? DID THE U.S. INTENTIONALLY ARM RADICAL ISLAMISTS TO FIGHT ASSAD OR WAS IT ACCIDENTAL?

4a) NPR w/ Susan Rice, "Deadly Attack Highlights Failure To Eliminate Syria's Chemical Weapons" (podcast - 4:05 min.)
https://www.npr.org/2017/04/10/523311385/deadly-attack-highlights-failure-to-eliminate-syria-s-chemical-weapons

4b) RT, "US has ‘zero intelligence’ on Syrian conflict – fmr CIA officer [Philip Giraldi]" (video - 3:18 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s28TtmWXQKk

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