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Biweekly Discussion - Social Contagion & Irrational Fears

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Brian B.
Biweekly Discussion - Social Contagion & Irrational Fears

Details

We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

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UNDERSTANDING SOCIAL CONTAGION & IRRATIONAL FEARS

INTRODUCTION:

In this meetup, we'll look at the phenomenon of "social contagion" and how it can spread irrational fears through a population. In particular, we'll look at 4 related mechanisms for spreading irrational fears: (1) rumors & urban legends, (2) apophenia, attribution biases & mass hallucination, (3) false memories & memory conformity, (4) the mean world syndrome & moral panics.

(*Note: Originally, I also planned to discuss mass psychogenic illnesses as well, but that topic is so complex it deserves its own discussion.)

As with our discussion last year on conspiracy theories, we'll try to construct a "generalist" critique of the various types of mass hysteria that can grip a society with the hope that it can be modified and applied to a variety of specific instances. We should note at the outset that "generalist" critiques of purportedly "irrational" social phenomena are somewhat controversial with some scholars who favor the "particularist" view, since they argue we should not make a sweeping dismissal of a wide range of claims without having examined them each in depth & judged them on their evidentiary basis. The only fears we can immediately dismiss are supernatural phenomena like ghosts, demons, black magic, etc. Certainly, we don't want to immediately dismiss as "irrational" every non-supernatural fear that becomes prominent in society. After all, many of the sources of danger that tend to cause panics are real enough: violent crime, terrorism, disease, toxic substances, animal attacks, natural disasters, etc. Nevertheless, scholars have found patterns in the way these fears develop & spread through society that tend to obscure the facts and produce an irrational response, and that's what we'll focus on in this discussion.

Keep in mind that while the skeptic movement tends to focus on debunking beliefs that are obviously irrational & based on pseudoscience or the paranormal, this meetup tends to focus on concerns that are less obviously irrational and have at least some basis in fact. In 2018, for example, we had a series of meetups where we discussed whether a wide range of political concerns might justly be called "moral panics" - crimes by illegal immigrants, Islamic terrorism, Russian interference in the 2016 election, voter fraud & vote suppression, racially-motivated police shootings, kidnapping & child molestation, sex trafficking, date rape drugs, mass shootings, college protestors deplatforming speakers, and hate crimes on campus. So when we're looking for heuristics to help us identify & understand social contagion in this discussion, we need to come up with a framework that not only helps us explain weird phenomena like the Salem witch trials, UFO sightings, the "Satanic ritual abuse panic" of the 1980s, and the wave of creepy clown sightings in 2016, but also the much more controversial issues our society is struggling with today.

In past discussions, we've used the idea of "expert consensus" as one heuristic that laypeople can use to try to figure out what is probably true. But what should we do when we can't find out what the expert consensus is on a certain issue, or when the experts appear to be about equally divided on a topic, or when we suspect that most of the experts in a given profession or academic field might be biased?

As we go through each section of the outline, try to think of a concern that many other people believe in but which you think is just a viral rumor or urban legend, a product of false pattern recognition and/or memory conformity, or a media-driven moral panic. Then try to think of an issue you're passionate about & think is a real problem we should all take more seriously, but one which other people might be tempted to dismiss as irrational. Finally, try to think of a neutral set of heuristics & concepts that both you & your critics could potentially agree upon to sift the grains of truth from the wild speculations & media hype.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PREVIOUS MEETUPS:

In September of 2018, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding Conspiracy Theories" that explored how the social trajectory of unverified rumors about elite conspiracies differs from cases where whistleblowers or investigators exposed real conspiracies. We also discussed a general rule of thumb for evaluating conspiracies - i.e. the more people that would have to be involved and the longer a conspiracy would have to be kept quiet, the less plausible it is. Ideally, we'd like to develop a similar heuristic for evaluating other types of fears & concerns that spread virally.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/253950244/

In July of 2018, we had a meetup entitled "Memes, Trends & Cultural Evolution" that looked at Malcolm Gladwell's "Three Rules of Epidemics" from his book The Tipping Point - (1) the Law of the Few, (2) the Stickiness Factor, and (3) the Power of Context. The sociologist Duncan Watts claims that Gladwell exaggerated the role of a few highly-networked "influencers" in spreading beliefs. However, the other 2 factors appear to be important, and they probably apply to the types of social contagion we'll discuss in this meetup.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/251486560/

In January of 2018, we had a meetup entitled, "The 'Two Cultures' Debate: Science & The Humanities". In Part 4, we looked at evolutionary psychology's explanation for religious stories, myths & folk tales. Jordan Peterson, Robert Wright, and others have argued that widely dispersed, long-lasting stories must contain some "psychological truth" even if they're not literally true. Some scholars employ similar evo-psych interpretations for rumors & urban legends, while more skeptical scholars often dismiss this approach as "just-so stories" that can't be experimentally tested.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/245952541/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the ways that irrational beliefs spread through society. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 57 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. UNDERSTANDING RUMORS, URBAN LEGENDS & FAKE NEWS:

  • WHY DO "DREAD RUMORS" TYPICALLY SPREAD FASTER THAN "WISH RUMORS"?

  • DOES ADDING CHARACTERS (E.G. FRIEND OF A FRIEND) & A BRIEF NARRATIVE TO A "DREAD RUMOR" - I.E. TURNING IT INTO AN URBAN LEGEND - MAKE IT MORE BELIEVABLE & HELP IT SPREAD FASTER?

  • SHOULD WE DISTINGUISH BETWEEN "URBAN MYTHS" THAT HAVE NO BASIS IN FACT & "URBAN LEGENDS" THAT HAVE A GRAIN OF TRUTH?

  • CAN THE "TERROR MANAGEMENT THEORY" AND THE "JUST WORLD HYPOTHESIS" HELP US MAKE SENSE OF THE "DARK HUMOR" & "CAUTIONARY TALE" TYPES OF URBAN LEGENDS FULFILL - I.E. THEY ENCOURAGE US TO LAUGH AT THOSE WHO BROKE SOCIAL NORMS & GOT HURT, BUT ASSURE US THAT WE WON'T BE HARMED IF WE FOLLOW THE RULES?

  • SHOULD WE CONSIDER FALSE STORIES BASED ON "WEDGE-SPLITTING RUMORS" (I.E. RUMORS THAT ALLEGE AN OUTGROUP IS DOING SOMETHING DEVIANT OR NEFARIOUS) TO BE "URBAN LEGENDS", OR DO THEY NEED ANOTHER TERM LIKE "CONSPIRACY THEORIES"?

  • SINCE ADOLESCENTS OFTEN ENGAGE IN "LEGEND TRIPPING" - I.E. VISITING SITES OR ENGAGING IN ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH URBAN LEGENDS AS A RITE OF PASSAGE - WHAT CAN THIS TELL US ABOUT THE LEGEND'S SOCIAL FUNCTION?

  • WHAT SHOULD WE MAKE OF EXTREME CASES OF "OSTENSION" - I.E. THE RARE INSTANCES WHERE PEOPLE COMMIT A CRIME WHILE ACTING OUT AN URBAN LEGEND, E.G. THE SLENDERMAN STABBING & HOUSE FIRE CASES IN 2014? CAN POWERFUL NARRATIVES INSPIRE VIOLENCE, OR DO THEY MERELY SERVE AS A PRETENSE?

  • ARE THEORIES ABOUT THE PSYCHOLOGICAL & SOCIOLOGICAL FUNCTIONS OF RUMORS & URBAN LEGENDS UNFALSIFIABLE "JUST-SO STORIES" OR CAN THEY BE TESTED & VERIFIED/FALSIFIED?

  • HAS THE RISE OF THE INTERNET & SOCIAL MEDIA ALONG WITH THE ABILITY TO MONETIZE "FAKE NEWS" MADE FALSE RUMORS MORE PREVALENT IN OUR SOCIETY, OR IS THIS CONCERN OVERBLOWN?

1a) Andy Luttrell, "Psychology of Rumors: 6 Reasons Rumors Spread" (video - 6:33 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEb2Th1E2GY

1b) John Green, "Why Do So Many People Share and Believe Fake News?" (video - 6:21 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYT8lWfKcCA

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II. UNDERSTANDING APOPHENIA, ATTRIBUTION BIASES & MASS HALLUCINATION:

  • IS IT TRUE THAT EVOLUTION PREDISPOSES US TO MAKE TYPE I (FALSE POSITIVE) ERRORS IN PATTERN RECOGNITION? IN WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES IS THIS FALSE PATTERN RECOGNITION ("APOPHENIA") MORE LIKELY?

  • WHY DO WE PERCEIVE SOME COINCIDENCES AS MEANINGFUL, I.E. "SYNCHRONICITY"? HOW CAN WE USE THIS TO ACCOUNT FOR THINGS LIKE THE “23 PHENOMENON”?

  • OTHER THAN PERCEIVING FACES IN NATURALLY OCCURRING OR MAN-MADE OBJECTS & HUMAN VOICES IN RANDOM SOUND, WHAT OTHER TYPES OF VISUAL & AUDITORY "PAREIDOLIA" ARE WE PRONE TO?

  • CAN SUBCLINICAL PARANOIA LEAD TO A “SINISTER ATTRIBUTION BIAS” THAT MAKES US THINK PEOPLE ARE FOLLOWING US, SPYING ON US, ABOUT TO ATTACK US, ETC.?

  • SHOULD A RASH OF REPORTS OF “SUSPICIOUS” BEHAVIOR THAT APPEARS TO BE MOTIVATED BY MASS PARANOIA BE CONSIDERED A “MASS HALLUCINATION”?

  • WHEN URBAN LEGENDS PROVOKE MASS SIGHTINGS - E.G. THE CLOWN PANIC OF 2016 - DOES THIS INDICATE AN UNDERLYING PROBLEM IN SOCIETY?

  • IS IT POSSIBLE THAT RELIGIOUS FANATACISM OR OBSESSION WITH AN URBAN LEGEND MIGHT PROVOKE A HALLUCINATION? IS THE "TULPA EFFECT" REAL - I.E. CAN SUFFICIENT MENTAL FOCUS PRODUCE AN INDEPENDENT "MODULE" OR "AGENT" IN THE MIND RESULTING IN DISSOCIATIVE BEHAVIOR OR HALLUCINATIONS?

  • IN CASES WHERE SOMEONE CLAIMS TO HAVE SEEN OR HEARD SOMETHING HIGHLY IMPROBABLE, SHOULD WE EMPLOY "HANLON'S RAZOR" AND INITIALLY ASSUME THEY WERE MISTAKEN OR HALLUCINATING RATHER THAN LYING?

  • ARE THERE ANY RECORDED CASES OF MASS HALLUCINATION IN WHICH PEOPLE SAW THE SAME ILLUSORY THING AT THE SAME TIME? OR ARE MASS HALLUCINATIONS USUALLY A SERIES OF SIGHTINGS BY INDIVIDUALS PRIMED BY RUMORS, I.E. “COLLECTIVE HALLUCINATIONS”?

  1. Michael Shermer, "The pattern behind self-deception" (video - 18:55 min, stop at 16:36)
    https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shermer_the_pattern_behind_self_deception?language=en

Daniel Freeman & Jason Freeman, "What causes paranoia, hallucinations and grandiose ideas? The widespread symptoms typically associated with schizophrenia are at least as likely to be triggered by people’s environment as their genes, a new study suggests."
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/oct/01/paranoia-hallucinations-grandiose-delusions-schizophrenia-environment-genes

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III. UNDERSTANDING FALSE MEMORIES & MEMORY CONFORMITY:

  • HOW OFTEN DO FALSE MEMORIES PLAY A ROLE IN COLLECTIVE HALLUCINATIONS - I.E. HOW OFTEN DO PEOPLE REINTERPRET THEIR MEMORIES OF EVENTS TO FIT A SOCIAL NARRATIVE THAT HAS GONE VIRAL?

  • HOW CAN WE EXPLAIN PHENOMENON LIKE THE "MANDELA EFFECT" WHERE LOTS OF PEOPLE ALL SHARE THE SAME FALSE MEMORIES ABOUT A HISTORICAL EVENT (E.G. NELSON MANDELA DYING IN PRISON IN THE LATE 1980s)? IS THIS USUALLY DUE TO MEMORY CONFLATION - I.E. CONFUSING ASPECTS OF TWO SIMILAR EVENTS?

  • WHAT DO EXPERIMENTS ON INDUCING FALSE MEMORIES (E.G. THE "LOST IN THE MALL" TECHNIQUE) TELL US ABOUT HOW THIS CAN BE DONE?

  • WHY DO MANY PSYCHOLOGISTS NOW DOUBT THE EXISTENCE OF "REPRESSED" MEMORIES OF TRAUMATIC EVENTS?

  • CAN HYPNOSIS EVER BE USED TO "RECOVER" MEMORIES, OR IS IT ALWAYS PRONE TO CREATING FALSE MEMORIES?

  • SHOULD WE BE SUSPICIOUS OF THE MEMORIES OF ANYONE WHO HAS RECEIVED PSYCHOLOGICAL COUNSELING OR THERAPY? IF ONLY A SUBSET OF THERAPEUTIC METHODS CAN EVOKE FALSE MEMORIES, HOW CAN WE IDENTIFY WHEN THEY WERE USED?

  • HOW OFTEN DO MEMORIES OF SLEEP PARALYSIS & NIGHT TERRORS RESULT IN FALSE MEMORIES OF BEDROOM INTRUDERS? HOW CAN WE DISTINGUISH THE REAL MEMORIES OF CHILDHOOD SEXUAL ABUSE FROM FALSE MEMORIES RESULTING FROM SLEEP PARALYSIS?

  • HOW CAN THE TRAUMA OF A VIOLENT EXPERIENCE & UNCONSCIOUS BIASES PRODUCE FALSE MEMORIES, LEADING TO A FALSE ACCUSATION? HOW CAN LAW ENFORCEMENT MINIMIZE THIS RISK (E.G. LINEUP PROCEDURES)?

  • ARE POLICE INTERROGATION TECHNIQUES (E.G. THE "REID TECHNIQUE") THAT HAVE BEEN LINKED TO FALSE CONFESSIONS ACTUALLY MAKING SUSPECTS THINK THEY COMMITTED CRIMES THEY DIDN'T DO? OR ARE POLICE MERELY MAKING SUSPECTS FEEL OVERWHELMED BY THE WEIGHT OF THE EVIDENCE THAT APPEARS TO POINT TO THEIR GUILT TO THE POINT THEY'RE WILLING TO TAKE A PLEA DEAL?

  1. Elizabeth Loftus, “How reliable is your memory?” (video - 17:31 min.)
    https://www.ted.com/talks/elizabeth_loftus_the_fiction_of_memory

*Kirsten Weir, "Mistaken identity: Is eyewitness identification more reliable than we think?"
https://www.apa.org/monitor/2016/02/mistaken-identity

  • DOES THE TENDENCY OF NEWS MEDIA TO FOCUS ON VIOLENT CRIME, HORRIBLE ACCIDENTS, NATURAL & MAN-MADE DISASTERS, ETC, MAKE VIEWERS OVERESTIMATE THEIR PREVALENCE? DOES WATCHING FICTIONAL VIOLENCE HAVE A SIMILAR EFFECT?

  • ARE NEWS NETWORKS CULPABLE FOR SCARING THE PUBLIC UNNECESSARILY BY FOCUSING REPORTING ON CRIME & OTHER DANGERS, OR IS THIS THEIR PROPER ROLE IN SOCIETY?

  • HAS THE COMPETITIVE NATURE OF THE "24-HOUR NEWS CYCLE" THAT EMERGED IN THE 1980S LED TO MORE FALSE RUMORS DUE TO LESS TIME FOR FACT-CHECKING & MORE CIRCULAR REPORTING?

  • SINCE THE DISCOVERY/INVENTION OF NEW CATEGORIES OF DEVIANCY OR CRIME OFTEN LEADS TO CONFIRMATION BIAS CREATING THE IMPRESSION OF A SUDDEN EPIDEMIC, HOW CAN THIS BE AVOIDED?

  • SINCE PAST MORAL PANICS HAVE OFTEN FOCUSED ON CERTAIN TYPES OF "FOLK DEVILS" - NAMELY IMMIGRANTS, ETHNIC/RELIGIOUS MINORITIES & YOUTH SUBCULTURES - SHOULD WE AUTOMATICALLY BE SUSPICIOUS WHENEVER SOME CONCERN IS RAISED ABOUT THESE GROUPS?

  • SINCE PAST PANICS HAVE OFTEN USED EMOTIONAL APPEALS TO “THINK OF THE CHILDREN”, HOW CAN WE DETERMINE WHEN EFFORTS TO IMPROVE CHILD SAFETY ARE BASED MORE ON EMOTIONS THAN STATISTICS?

  • SINCE PAST MORAL PANICS HAVE OFTEN RAISED EXCESSIVE CONCERNS ABOUT THE SUPPOSED DANGERS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES & NEW DISEASES, SHOULD WE BE SUSPICIOUS OF THESE TYPES OF CONCERNS IN THE FUTURE? OR ARE THESE CONCERNS MORE JUSTIFIED THAN THOSE TOWARDS SMALL GROUPS OF "DEVIANT" PEOPLE?

  • IS "LABELING THEORY" CORRECT - I.E. DOES STIGMATIZING PEOPLE IN SUBCULTURES MAKE THEM MORE LIKELY TO ENGAGE IN FURTHER DEVIANCY, OR DOES IT JUST MAKE IT SEEM THIS WAY BY OVER-REPORTING ANY ACT OF DEVIANCY FROM A STIGMATIZED GROUP?

  • HOW CAN WE DISTINGUISH "MORAL PANICS" & "FEAR-MONGERING" FROM RESPONSIBLE CAMPAIGNS TO RAISE AWARENESS OF REAL DANGERS? CAN WE QUANTIFY THE RATIO OF NEWS COVERAGE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DANGER?

  • IN THE WAKE OF A HIGH-PROFILE TRAGEDY, WHY DO SO MANY PEOPLE DEFEND INEFFECTIVE LEGISLATION BY ARGUING “WELL AT LEAST THEY’RE DOING SOMETHING” OR SAYING “IF IT ONLY SAVES ONE LIFE, IT’S WORTH IT”?

  • THE SOCIOLOGIST & SENATOR PATRICK MOYNIHAN WARNED ABOUT THE DANGERS OF "DEFINING DEVIANCE DOWN" - I.E. WHEN A SOCIETY BECOMES COMPLACENT ABOUT IMMORAL BEHAVIOR? HOW CAN A SOCIETY BALANCE ITS CONCERNS OVER DEVIANCE SO THAT IT AVOIDS BOTH THE "DEVIANCE AMPLIFICATION SPIRAL" THAT LEADS TO MORAL PANICS & THE "NORMALIZATION OF DEVIANCE" PROCESS THAT LEADS TO DANGEROUS FORMS OF DEVIANCE, LIKE INATTENTION TO VIOLENT CRIME, HAZARDOUS INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES, EROSION OF POLITICAL NORMS, ETC.?

  1. Bob Franklin, "Moral Panics" (video - 10:32 min.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1a8-BJD8qg&t=3

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Cafe Walnut
703 Walnut Street · Philadelphia, PA
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