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Biweekly Discussion - False Pretexts & Acts of War

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Brian B.
Biweekly Discussion - False Pretexts & Acts of War

Details

We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

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FALSE PRETEXTS & ACTS OF WAR:
WAS THE U.S. DRAWN INTO THE SPANISH-AMERICAN WAR, WWI, WWII, AND THE VIETNAM WAR BY LIES & CONSPIRACIES?

INTRODUCTION:

This meetup will address some conspiracy theories about the manner in which the U.S. was drawn into several major wars, all of which started with naval attacks that ostensibly constituted "acts of war". We'll start by looking at allegations that the suspicious explosion that sunk the USS Maine in Havana Harbor and provoked the Spanish-American War was either an accident or self-sabotage, and yet the "jingoists" like Teddy Roosevelt & "yellow journalists" like William Randolph Hearst convinced Americans it was the result of a Spanish mine. Next, we'll look at the sinking of the Lusitania and allegations that the British purposely sent it unprotected into an area where they knew a German U-boat was waiting so it would get sunk and anger Americans enough they'd enter World War I. We'll then move onto looking at the Pearl Harbor attack that brought the U.S. into World War II, and allegations that FDR knew the attack was coming but allowed it to happen in order to enrage the American public enough to overcome the prevailing isolationist sentiment. Lastly, we'll look at the alleged attack on the USS Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin that brought the U.S. into the Vietnam War and allegations that it was either a pure fabrication or merely the result of sailors getting spooked by radar anomalies & firing blindly into the night.

NOTE: This meetup builds on some concepts from a previous discussion about whether the 9/11 attacks, the decision to invade Iraq in 2003, and U.S. involvement in the Libyan & Syrian civil wars were the product of intelligence failures, policy failures, or conspiracies. To review the outline from that discussion, go here:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/254780511/

In that earlier meetup, we covered 3 basic ways of thinking about the causes of foreign policy disasters:
(1) intelligence failures - i.e. errors in surveillance, poor analysis, or problems in sharing of classified information that lead to disaster.
(2) policy failures - i.e. misunderstanding of or failure to heed intelligence reports, poor executive decisions, or failures in the chain of command that lead to disaster.
(3) conspiracies - i.e. secret plots to intentionally cause the disaster for ulterior purposes, e.g. war profiteering, enabling imperialism, diverting public attention from a domestic scandal, generating nationalistic sentiments to win an election, etc.

We also discussed how conspiracy theories about foreign policy disasters can typically be sorted into 3 categories:
(1) MIHOP - i.e. the plotters "made it happen on purpose" (a.k.a. false flag attack),
(2) LIHOP - the plotters "let it happen on purpose" (a.k.a. sacrificial lamb, cannon fodder),
(3) Hoax - it didn't really happen, but the plotters lied & said it did.

There's 3 other types of conspiracy theories we didn't discuss previously but which posit opportunism in the wake of an accident rather than prior planning:
(4) conflation of friendly fire with an enemy attack,
(5) conflation of an accidental disaster (e.g. fire or explosion) with an enemy attack,
(6) conflation of a false alarm with an enemy attack.
Of course, honest mistakes can happen when international tensions are high prior to the outbreak of war, but conspiracy theorists typically believe the conflation is intentional if it appears to benefit the government or fit in with their overall goals.

When we look at scholarly debates about the causes of wars, it's important to distinguish arguments over facts from arguments over moral judgements. As is often the case, two historians may agree on most or all of the facts surrounding an attack, but they'll disagree about whether it constituted an unprovoked "act of war" under international law or whether it was a justified act of self-defense in response to a military provocation, economic warfare, sabotage, espionage, etc. Philosophical debates about the moral significance of past events is a major part of what's known as "historical revisionism", which is very different from illegitimate attempts to revise our view of past events by introducing misinformation, denying well-evidenced incidents even happened, or making claims about secret plans & conspiracies with little or no evidence - that's known as "historical negationism". Wikipedia has entries for both of these terms that help explain the differences in more detail:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_revisionism
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_negationism

WHY THIS TOPIC IS IMPORTANT - ESPECIALLY RIGHT NOW:

For skeptics who want to learn to distinguish credible allegations of conspiracy from the irrational rumors we usually call "conspiracy theories", this topic is important because the notion that "false flag" attacks are rife in American military history is quite common. Part of the reason for this is the proliferation of blogs & viral videos espousing conspiracy theories about how America's wars have started, coupled with a generally low level of historical knowledges among the public that leaves people open to believing things most military historians would find preposterous.

A good example of a popular conspiracy theory video is Peter Joseph's "Zeitgeist", which treated all the incidents we'll discuss in this meetup as the result of conspiracies by international bankers who wanted to get rich off financing wars. (Thus, this topic connects with some of the banking conspiracies we discussed in our last meetup.) For a skeptical debunking of claims made in "Zeitgeist", see Edward L. Winston's Skeptic Project blog:
http://skepticproject.com/articles/zeitgeist/part-three/#war

Another reason it's important to understand the way naval clashes can spark wars is that this could happen in the near future, particularly where US naval forces face off against the Chinese in the South China Sea or the Russians in the Baltic & Black Seas. Some international relations scholars like James Cable & David Winkler have done quantitative analyses of the types of naval clashes we'll discuss in this meetup in order to learn how to head off future incidents that could spark a major war.

However, some military historians like Douglas Peifer have warned that "quantitative approaches fail to provide a textured understanding of the interplay of foreign and domestic concerns, and factor out the importance of chance, personalities, and the specifics of particular crises." Peifer argues that "a better approach is to understanding naval incidents is to study them using an historical mindset... [This means] studying an issue in all its richness in order to understand the 'essential elements of context and detail that make up a complex political-military situation.' A historical mindset embraces similarities and dissimilarities, intended actions and the accidental, patterns and the unique. It trains the mind to ask disciplined, critical questions. It provokes a degree of skepticism about overdependence on theoretical models and 'lessons learned'.”
https://militaryhistorynow.com/2016/07/31/dangerous-waters-what-can-history-teach-us-about-americas-next-naval-confrontation/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the causes of several major American wars and the possibility they were started by "false flag" attacks. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 43 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. THE SINKING OF THE USS MAINE & THE SPANISH-AMERICAN WAR:

  • WAS WILLIAM RANDOLPH HEARST'S INTEREST IN THE CUBAN REVOLUTION PURELY A DESIRE TO SELL NEWSPAPERS OR GENUINE CONCERN FOR THE PLIGHT OF THE CUBAN PEOPLE? AND DID HE REALLY SAY TO HIS CORRESPONDENT, "YOU FURNISH THE PICTURES AND I'LL FURNISH THE WAR"?

  • WHY HAVE LATER EXAMINATIONS OF THE WRECKAGE OF THE USS MAINE YIELDED CONFLICTING CONCLUSIONS ABOUT WHETHER ITS SINKING IN HAVANA HARBOR WAS A RESULT OF A SPANISH MINE OR AN ACCIDENTAL COAL FIRE THAT IGNITED MUNITIONS?

  • IS IT A COINCIDENCE THAT THE ENLISTED MEN WERE DIRECTLY OVER THE MAGAZINE & MOSTLY KILLED IN THE EXPLOSION, WHEREAS THE OFFICERS WERE IN THE AFT & MOSTLY SURVIVED? COULD THIS INDICATE AN "INSIDE JOB"?

  • CAN HISTORIANS DETERMINE WHETHER "JINGOISM" WAS WIDESPREAD IN THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IN 1898 WITHOUT PUBLIC OPINION POLLS? WHAT SHOULD WE MAKE OF THE FOUNDING OF THE ANTI-IMPERALIST LEAGUE 2 MONTHS AFTER THE SINKING OF THE MAINE? DOES WILLIAM MCKINLEY'S RE-ELECTION (WITH TEDDY ROOSEVELT AS VP) OVER THE ANTI-IMPERIALIST WILLIAM JENNINGS BRYAN IN THE ELECTION OF 1900 GIVE US ANY INSIGHT?

  • WAS THE $50 MILLION IN AMERICAN INVESTMENTS IN CUBA SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THAT THESE BUSINESS INTERESTS AFFECTED US FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS THE CUBAN REVOLUTION? DOES THE INITIAL OPPOSITION TO WAR BY MAJOR FINANCIERS LIKE ANDREW CARNEGIE, JAMES J. HILL & J.P. MORGAN DISPROVE THE NOTION THAT FINANCIAL INTERESTS WERE BEHIND THE WAR?

1a) Discovery, "Sinking of the USS Maine" (video - 4:24 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJOWRmZx5l0

1b) WatchMojo w/ Kenneth White, "Hearst and the Spanish American War" (video - 3:09 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Abzd41k_OhQ

II. THE SINKING OF THE LUSITANIA & WORLD WAR I:

  • WHY WAS THE WARNING AD IN THE NY TIMES TO POTENTIAL PASSENGERS ON TRANSATLANTIC OCEAN LINERS FROM THE GERMAN EMBASSY IGNORED?

  • DID THE LUSITANIA'S DECK GUNS & STEEL PROW MAKE IT TECHNICALLY A WARSHIP EVEN IF IT WAS USED AS A PASSENGER LINER?

  • CONSIDERING THE BRITISH HAD CRACKED THE GERMAN CODE & KNEW WHERE THEIR U-BOATS WERE, WAS THE LUSITANIA INTENTIONALLY SENT INTO U-BOAT OCCUPIED WATERS WITHOUT AN ESCORT AS A "SACRIFICIAL LAMB" BY WINSTON CHURCHILL?

  • WAS THE FAILURE TO WARN THE CAPTAIN UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE THE ATTACK PART OF THE CONSPIRACY, A DESIRE TO KEEP THE FACT THE BRITISH HAD CRACKED THE GERMAN CODE SECRET, OR JUST A MISTAKE?

  • WAS THE LUSITANIA'S REDUCED SPEED THE RESULT OF FOG, A DESIRE TO GO IN WITH THE TIDE, OR THE RESULT OF AN ORDER TO MAKE IT EASIER TO TORPEDO? AND WHY WASN'T IT ZIGZAGGING?

  • WAS THE LUSITANIA SMUGGLING ARMS TO GREAT BRITAIN? COULD RIFLE MUNITIONS CAUSE THE 2ND EXPLOSION AFTER THE TORPEDO HIT, OR WOULD IT HAVE HAD TO BE HIGH EXPLOSIVES? COULD IT BE SOMETHING ELSE, LIKE THE SHIP'S BOILER OR POWDERED ALUMINUM?

  • WHY DID WOODROW WILSON NOT DECLARE WAR UNTIL 2 YEARS AFTER THE LUSITANIA SUNK? WAS THE ZIMMERMANN TELEGRAM FROM GERMANY TO MEXICO THAT CAUSED THE US TO DECLARE WAR A BRITISH FORGERY, AS HEARST'S PAPER CLAIMED? WAS THIS PUT TO REST BY ARHTUR ZIMMERMAN'S ADMISSION THAT IT WAS TRUE?

2a) CBS w/ Erik Larson & Eioin McGarry, "The Lusitania disaster: A 'maritime grassy knoll'" (video - 8:12 min.)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-lusitania-disaster-a-maritime-grassy-knoll/2/

2b) Ivan Light, "The Two Lusitania Conspiracies" (video - 4:30 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDsk5Y_8XS4

III. THE ATTACK ON PEARL HARBOR & WORLD WAR II:

  • DID THE MILITARY SUPPLIES THE US SOLD TO BRITAIN VIA "CASH & CARRY" AND THEN "LEND-LEASE" MAKE THE U.S. A DE FACTO BELLIGERENT? WAS THE OIL EMBARGO ON JAPAN DESIGNED TO PROVOKE AN ATTACK?

  • DID CHURCHILL SEND FDR A TELEGRAM WARNING HIM OF AN IMPENDING JAPANESE ATTACK?

  • WERE THE BATTLESHIPS CLUSTERED IN PEARL HARBOR TO MAKE THEM BETTER TARGETS & SO IF SUNK THEY COULD BE EASILY RAISED & REPAIRED, OR WAS IT TO MAKE IT HARDER FOR JAPAN AGENTS IN HAWAII TO SABOTAGE THEM?

  • SINCE THE U.S. BROKE THE JAPANESE CODE & CAUGHT THEM TELLING THE CONSUL GENERAL IN HAWAII TO DESCRIBE THE EXACT POSITIONS OF SHIPS IN PEARL HARBOR, WASN'T THIS A CLEAR SIGN OF AN IMPENDING ATTACK?

  • WHY DIDN'T THE JAPANESE "EAST WINDS RAIN" RADIO MESSAGE TO IS EMBASSIES & CONSULATES RAISE AN ALARM?

  • WERE THE AIRCRAFT CARRIERS SENT AWAY FROM PEARL HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ATTACK TO PRESERVE THEM & PREVENT THEM FROM RENDERING AID WHEN THE JAPANESE STRUCK, OR TO TRANSPORT AIRPLANES TO WAKE & MIDWAY?

  • DID ADMIRAL KIMMEL RECEIVE SEVERAL GENERAL WARNINGS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A JAPANESE ATTACK IN THE WEEKS BEFORE THE ATTACK?

  • WHY DIDN'T THE SIGHTING & SINKING OF A JAPANESE SUB OUTSIDE THE HARBOR AN HOUR BEFORE THE ATTACK RAISE A GENERAL ALARM?

  • IF FDR WANTED TO SWAY AMERICAN OPINION TO ENTER THE WAR, WHY NOT SIMPLY COUNTER-ATTACK THE JAPANESE FORCE ONCE THEY GOT CLOSE RATHER THAN ALLOWING THEM TO AMBUSH THE US FORCES IN PEARL HARBOR?

  1. Brian Dunning, "Attack on Pearl Harbor" (video - 13:29 min)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dD6JO3UGOc

IV. THE GULF OF TONKIN INCIDENT(S) & THE VIETNAM WAR:

  • WERE US GUNSHIPS SENT TO THE GULF OF TONKIN MERELY TO MONITOR THE NORTH VIETNAMESE OR TO PROVOKE AN ATTACK? DIDN'T SOUTH VIETNAMESE RAIDS ON NORTH VIETNAMESE PORTS (OPERATION 34A) SEEM TO COME FROM THE US SHIPS, EVEN IF THEY DID NOT?

  • DID VIETNAMESE TORPEDO BOATS ACTUALLY ATTACK THE USS MADDOX IN THE GULF OF TONKIN ON AUG. 2, 1964? DID THE MADDOX STRAY INTO NORTH VIETNAM'S TERRITORIAL WATERS?

  • WAS THE 2ND INCIDENT INVOLVING USS MADDOX & USS TURNER JOY ON AUG. 4 A REAL ATTACK, A TOTAL HOAX, OR A CASE OF RADAR ANOMALIES & JITTERY NERVES?

  • DID THE NSA FALSIFY INTELLIGENCE TO MAKE IT LOOK LIKE THE 2ND INCIDENT WAS A NORTH VIETNAMESE ATTACK?

  • IS THE MORE RECENT THEORY ABOUT A SCHOOL OF BIOLUMINISCENT SEA CREATURES - I.E. GIANT PYRSOMES - A PLAUSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR SONAR REPORTS OF TORPEDOS & SIGHTINGS OF CABIN LIGHTS OR SEARCH LIGHTS ON AUG. 4TH? OR WHAT ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ENCOUNTER WITH CHINESE PT BOATS FROM HAINAN ISLAND?

  • DID ROBERT MCNAMARA LIE TO LBJ ABOUT THE GULF OF TONKIN INCIDENT? IF NOT, DID LBJ LIE TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC ABOUT THE INCIDENTS TO JUSTIFY AMERICAN INTERVENTION IN THE VIETNAM WAR?

4a) Simple History, "The Gulf of Tonkin Incident (1964)" (video - 3:12 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crALHjTiXbk

4b) Alltime Conspiracies, "Was Vietnam Based On A Lie?" (video - 6:04 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AxXko3Z0FY

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Cafe Walnut
703 Walnut Street · Philadelphia, PA
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