Skip to content

Biweekly Discussion - Nuclear Weapons & Nuclear Myths

Photo of Brian B.
Hosted By
Brian B.
Biweekly Discussion - Nuclear Weapons & Nuclear Myths

Details

We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

----------------------------------------------
NUCLEAR WEAPONS & NUCLEAR MYTHS:
WHAT DOES THE PUBLIC OFTEN GET WRONG ABOUT NUCLEAR WINTER, REAGAN'S STAR WARS PROGRAM, EMP ATTACKS, AND DIRTY BOMBS?

INTRODUCTION - THE HISTORY OF NUCLEAR WINTER & SDI:

The first half of this meetup will address two scientific debates from the 1980s about nuclear warfare - i.e. the "nuclear winter" theory & the feasibility of Ronald Reagan's "Strategic Defense Initiative" (SDI), popularly known as the Star Wars program. The nuclear winter theory and the SDI program are of special interest to members of the skeptic community since one of the most prominent American skeptics, Carl Sagan, was heavily involved in the debates over both of them in the 1980s. Although it was four other scientists -- physicists James Pollack & Brian Toon and meteorologists Tom Ackerman & Rich Turco -- that did most of the research that developed the nuclear winter theory in the late '70s & early 80s, Carl Sagan was brought on in 1982 for his high public profile which could help the team navigate the inevitable public controversy to come. (The 5 authors came to be known as the "TTAPS" team from their authors' last initials.) Sagan used nuclear winter theory to believed that America's "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD) doctrine was suicidal and that only nuclear disarmament keep the peace in the long run & save humanity. He presented these arguments in a widely-read article in the October 1983 edition of "Cosmos" magazine.

Sagan's advocacy put him at odds with scientists like physicist Edward Teller, whose anti-Communist zeal was particularly notable. Teller often took existing threat analyses and extrapolated them into worst-case scenarios in the interests of spurring the government toward more aggressive action & more weapons research & development. He strongly opposed nuclear test bans and believed the Soviets could launch a nuclear strike at any time. Teller supported the "Strategic Defense Initiative" (SDI), a proposed system of anti-nuclear satellites & anti-ballistic missile weapons derisively called "Star Wars" by its critics. Many analysts opposed SDI because it would potentially escalate the arms race; while other opposed SDI because they doubted it would work at all.

Nuclear winter pitted Sagan against Teller, culminating in both men giving testimony before the U.S. Congress in 1985. Teller took personal offense at the conclusions of TTAPS: if the nuclear winter hypothesis was right, SDI and other strategies Teller promoted were doomed from the start. Despite their opposing stances, their rhetorical tactics were similar: in public statements, Sagan focused on the most extreme predictions for nuclear winter, just as Teller cherry-picked data to exaggerate the Soviet threat.

Much of the urgency behind these debates died down 4 years later when the "Iron Curtain" came down and Eastern bloc states began to oust their Communist governments, and then 2 years later the Soviet Union collapsed. George H.W. Bush initially vowed to continue funding for some components of Reagan's SDI program, but it faded away along with fears of nuclear wars & nuclear winter during the 1990s.

THE RELEVANCE OF NUCLEAR WINTER & MISSILE DEFENSE TODAY, AND TWO NEW THREATS:

Understanding the science behind nuclear weapons and the threats they pose has become increasingly relevant as military tensions have escalated between the US and both Russia & China. And as "rogue states" like North Korea & Iran have started nuclear programs, there's been increasing calls from some foreign policy officials to revive research into the advanced missile defense technology originally proposed by SDI. And in 2013, the physicist Alan Robock revived interest in nuclear winter with a paper that argued that even a small-scale nuclear war between India & Pakistan involving less than 100 warheads (less than half their combined arsenals) could loft enough smoke into the upper stratosphere to produce enough dimming of the sunlight and a worldwide cooling effect to cause catastrophic crop failures & famine.

Fears about nuclear war have also been augmented in the post-9/11 era about the possibility of a terrorists either gaining control of a nuclear weapon or simply getting enough radiological material to build a "dirty bomb" that could be detonated in a major U.S. city. More recently, there's been fears that a rogue state like North Korea that only has a few nuclear missiles could detonate one at a high enough altitude over the U.S. that its "electromagnetic pulse" (EMP) would knock out the entire electrical grid. Newt Gingrich and a Congressional "EMP Caucus" began to voice these fears in 2009 and shortly thereafter there were media reports that an EMP attack could irreparably damage the U.S. electrical grid and cause complete societal collapse, killing an estimated 90% of Americans.

While any nuclear attack on the U.S. would be horrible and we certainly don't want to downplay the risks in this discussion, as skeptics we also want to make sure we separate the settled science behind nuclear weapons from the more contested & highly speculative claims. We also don't want to fall for a "moral panic" about nuclear weapons that might exaggerate the risks and play into the hands of special interest groups whose goals may not align with the broader public interest. This should give you a sense of the maze of complex issues we'll try to navigate in this discussion...

-----------------------------------------------

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major misconceptions about nuclear & radiological weapons. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 55 minutes total. I know that's a lot, and if you don't have time to watch all the videos try to just watch one from each section. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

----------------------------------------------

I. NUCLEAR WAR & THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE "NUCLEAR WINTER" THEORY:

  • WERE CARL SAGAN & THE "TTAPS" TEAM CORRECT THAT A NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN TWO MAJOR POWERS - E.G. THE US & EITHER RUSSIA OR CHINA - PRODUCE A "NUCLEAR WINTER" THAT WOULD STARVE MOST OF HUMANITY?

  • WHY DIDN'T THE KUWAITI OIL FIRES IN THE FIRST GULF WAR PRODUCE MAJOR CLIMATIC EFFECTS AS CARL SAGAN PREDICTED?

  • DID THE FIRE BOMBING OF DRESDEN OR THE ATOMIC BOMBS DROPPED ON HIROSHIMA & NAGASAKI PRODUCE NOTICEABLE CLIMATE EFFECTS?

  • HOW DO THE CLIMACTIC EFFECTS OF OIL FIRES & WILD FIRES COMPARE TO MAJOR VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LIKE TAMBORA (1815), KRAKATOA (1889) & PINATUBO (1991)?

  • IS MICHAEL CRICHTON RIGHT WHEN HE ARGUES THAT THE VARIABLES IN THE EQUATIONS THE TTAPS AUTHORS USED TO CALCULATE THE CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR ARE SO DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY THAT ITS RESULTS ARE NO MORE PRECISE THAN THE DRAKE EQUATION'S ESTIMATE OF THE ODDS OF DETECTING AN ALIEN CIVILIZATION?

  • DID CARL SAGAN & OTHER SCIENTISTS AFFILIATED WITH THE ANTI-NUCLEAR MOVEMENT (E.G PAUL EHRLICH) POSSIBLY OVERSTATE THE EFFECT OF NUCLEAR WINTER TO SCARE THE PUBLIC INTO SUPPORTING DISARMAMENT?

  • WAS NUCLEAR WINTER THEORY PARTLY A PRODUCT OF A KGB DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN?

  • WHY DID SOME SCIENTISTS COME TO DOUBT NUCLEAR WINTER THEORY BY THE 1990s?

  • WHAT SHOULD WE MAKE OF ALAN ROBOCK'S 2013 STUDY THAT PREDICTED THAT A LIMITED NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN INDIA & PAKISTAN (~100 WARHEADS) COULD PUT ENOUGH SMOKE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TO CAUSE A "NUCLEAR AUTUMN" THAT WOULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE CROP YIELDS OVER THE FOLLOWING YEAR?

  1. Bryan Dunning, "Nuclear War and Nuclear Winter: Atmospheric smoke from a nuclear war would not result in devastating global cooling." (podcast - 11:50 min.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQdXOXlxNHQ

II. REAGAN'S "STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE" & THE FEASIBILITY OF NUCLEAR MISSILE DEFENSE TODAY:

  • WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENT METHODS PROPOSED FOR DEFENDING AGAINST NUCLEAR MISSILES?

  • WOULD SDI HAVE WORKED WITH THE TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE IN THE 1980s OR WAS IT MERELY A MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL "BOONDOGGLE"?

  • DID THE FEAR OF SDI CAUSE THE SOVIET UNION TO OVER-SPEND ON NUCLEAR MISSILES, HASTENING IT FINANCIAL COLLAPSE?

  • DID THE CHIEF DEFENDERS OF SDI AT THE GEORGE C. MARSHALL INSTITUTE GO ON TO DEFEND BIG TOBACCO & BIG OIL WITH PSEUDOSCIENCE & DOUBT-MONGERING?

  • EVEN IF MISSILE DEFENSE WASN'T FEASIBLE IN THE 1980s, IS IT FEASIBLE TODAY - OR COULD IT BE IN THE NEAR FUTURE, PROVIDED WE'RE WILLING TO SPEND ENOUGH MONEY?

2a) Paul Shillito, "Did Reagan's Real Star Wars Bankrupt the Soviet Union?" (video - 9:43 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL0pNvo-BKw

2b) SciShow, "How Would We Stop a Nuclear Missile?" (video - 5:03 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D97vZEJ2UBo

III. RADIOLOGICAL TERRORISM & THE THREAT OF A "DIRTY BOMB"

  • IS A "DIRTY BOMB" - I.E. A CONVENTIONAL BOMB PACKED WITH RADIOLOGICAL MATERIALS - EASY FOR TERRORISTS TO MAKE?

  • COULD ANTI-TERRORISM FORCES POSSIBLY DETECT A DIRTY BOMB AHEAD OF TIME & PREVENT ITS USE?

  • HOW MANY CASUALTIES COULD A DIRTY BOMB PRODUCE IN THE SHORT TERM? HOW ABOUT LONGER-TERM DEATHS FROM CANCER?

  • HOW DIFFICULT WOULD IT BE TO DECONTAMINATE THE AREA AFFECTED BY A DIRTY BOMB? COULD A DIRTY BOMB MAKE THE CORE OF A MAJOR CITY UNINHABITABLE FOR MONTHS, YEARS, DECADES?

  • WAS THE THREAT POSED BY JOSE PADILLA IN TERMS OF BUILDING A DIRTY BOMB EXAGGERATED?

  • WHY DIDN'T ISIS PRODUCE A DIRTY BOMB AS MANY EXPERTS PREDICTED? IS IT BECAUSE THEY LACK THE TECHNICAL EXPERTISE, OR PERHAPS BECAUSE (AS GWERN BRANWEN HAS HYPOTHESIZED) TERRORISTS ARE NOT RATIONALLY CALCULATING HOW TO PRODUCE THE MOST ENEMY CASUALTIES?

3a) PBS Newshour, "How Tough Is it to Build a Dirty Bomb?" (video - 11:01 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XCxKeq8nWU

3b) The Atlantic w/ Steven Brill, "The Inevitability of Dirty Bombs" (video - 4:06 min.)
https://youtu.be/EyUmrW2emeM

IV. HIGH-ALTITUDE ELECTRO-MAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) ATTACKS:

  • HOW DOES A NUCLEAR MISSILE DETONATED AT A HIGH-ALTITUDE PRODUCE AN ELECTRO-MAGNETIC PULSE (EMP)?

  • HOW MUCH DAMAGE WOULD A DETONATION OVER THE MIDWEST DO THE THE U.S. ELECTRICAL GRID, AND WHAT AREAS WOULD BE EFFECTED?

  • DOES THE CARRINGTON EVENT (A CORONAL MASS EJECTION IN 1859) AND THE "STARFISH PRIME" TEST IN 1962 GIVE US A LIMITED SENSE OF THE EFFECTS OF HIGH ALTITUDE EMPs?

  • HOW LONG WOULD IT TAKE TO REPAIR THE DAMAGE DONE BY A HIGH ALTITUDE EMP ATTACK? WOULD THERE BE MASS STARVATION & SOCIAL COLLAPSE BEFORE REPAIRS COULD BE COMPLETED?

  • HOW COULD THE ELECTRICAL GRID BE HARDENED AGAINST EMP ATTACKS?

  • DO CYBER ATTACKS POSE A GREATER THREAT TO THE ELECTRICAL GRID THAN A HIGH ALTITUDE EMP ATTACK?

4a) SciShow Space, "The Unexpected Effects of Nukes in Space" (video - 4:40 min.)
https://youtu.be/TRhStl7SQnM

4b) City Prepper, "5 things you need to know about EMP's" (video - 8:53 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbQVFOPOHE4

*Sharon E. Burke & Emily Schneider, "Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Pulse? Some in Congress and the private sector want to spend a lot of time—and money—preparing for the threat of electro magnetic pulse weapons. But is that the right priority?"
https://slate.com/technology/2015/07/emp-threats-could-an-electro-magnetic-pulse-weapon-wipe-out-the-power-grid.html

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Photo of Skeptics In The Pub - Philly group
Skeptics In The Pub - Philly
See more events
Cooperage
123 S 7th Street, Philadelphia, PA 19106 · Philadelphia, PA