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Biweekly Discussion - Is Mass Incarceration a Conspiracy?

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Brian B.
Biweekly Discussion - Is Mass Incarceration a Conspiracy?

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We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

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IS MASS INCARCERATION A TRUE CONSPIRACY?

FACT-CHECKING THEORIES OF THE PRISON INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, PRISON SLAVERY, SCHOOL-TO-PRISON PIPELINE & THE NEW JIM CROW

INTRODUCTION:

This meetup will address a variety of conspiracy theories about America's prison system that have become fairly mainstream over the past decade or so. The skeptic movement has done a fairly good job of debunking some of the more outlandish conspiracy theories about "secret prisons" common on the radical right - e.g. rumors that secret FEMA prison camps are being erected in preparation for a manufactured civil emergency that will result in martial law. Brian Dunning devoted an episode of his Skeptic podcast to debunking the FEMA camps conspiracy theory, and Popular Mechanics even addressed it:
https://skeptoid.com/episodes/4145
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a12805/4312850/

The FEMA camp conspiracy theories appear to be mostly confined to the fringes of society, so we won't address them in this discussion. However, there's a variety of more plausible-sounding conspiracy theories about American prisons -- specially allegations of hidden motives behind mass incarceration -- that have become prevalent among many liberals & libertarians. While these theories often blur together in practice, in this meetup we'll break these conspiracy theories down into 4 common permutations: (1) the Prison-Industrial Complex, (2) Prison as Modern Day Slavery, (3) the School-to-Prison Pipeline, and (4) the War on Drugs as the means for "The New Jim Crow".

As with previous meetups where we addressed conspiracy theories, it's necessary for us to consider alternative hypotheses as well. We can probably sort theories for mass incarceration into 4 general categories -- the first two are non-conspiratorial while the latter two involve different types of conspiracies:
(1) Good Policy: Mass incarceration is a necessary evil to protect the public from dangerous criminals,
(2) Policy Failure: Mass incarceration is an unnecessary evil and an unintended consequence of poorly designed criminal justice policies,
(3) Policy Failure with a Retroactive Conspiracy: Mass incarceration is an unintended consequence of poorly designed criminal justice policies, but it has become entrenched because it benefits certain powerful groups.
(4) Proactive Conspiracy: Mass incarceration is the intentional result of the prior planning & orchestration of certain powerful groups who benefit from it.

BASIC FACTS & TRENDS IN THE INCARCERATION RATE IN THE U.S.

Before we dive into the various conspiracy theories about mass incarceration, it would help if everyone has a grasp of the basic facts about trends in both the crime rate & the incarceration rate in the U.S. Wikipedia provides a decent overview:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States

Crime rates fluctuated dramatically throughout the 20th century. Since changes in the classifications of crimes and problems with reporting cloud a lot of the data on crime rates, it's often helpful to use the homicide rate as a rough proxy for the violent crime rate. In the first decade of the 20th century, the homicide rate was fairly low around 5 per 100K, which despite scant reporting from earlier decades is generally agreed upon to be much lower than homicide rates in the 19th century or earlier centuries. (Refer to Steven Pinker's book The Better Angels of Our Nature for reasons why the U.S. and other Western nations experienced this historic decline in violence as they industrialized.) There was a spike in the homicide rate between 1907 & 1911 where it rose to between 8-9 per 100K, then it fell back to around 5.5 per 100K by 1913. However, the rate began to rise again in the teens and accelerated during the 1920s, perhaps due to violent clashes among gangs during National Prohibition of alcohol. By 1933, the homicide rate was around 9.5 per 100K, but Prohibition was repealed that year and the rate fell dramatically in subsequent years, reaching a low of about 5 per 100K again in 1943. There was a modest spike in homicides in the late 1940s up to around 6.5 per 100K, but it dropped back to 5 per 100K by 1950 and stayed around there through the rest of the decade. However, despite the economic prosperity of the 1960s, the homicide rate began to rise and by 1970 it was back around 6.5. per 100K and over 10 per 100K by 1973 despite Nixon's efforts to get "tough on crime". The homicide rate stayed 8-10 per 100K throughout the 1970s & 1980s during the "crack epidemic", but it began to drop dramatically after 1993. By 2000, the homicide rate was below 6 per 100K and by 2010 it was at historic lows of around 5 per 100K, with no discernible rise during the economic turmoil of the Great Recession. Despite a brief spike in homicide during 2015-16, the rate still hasn't risen above 6 per 100K, even as certain cities like Chicago have experienced large increases in their homicides, since this is counterbalanced by other cities like New York where homicides have stayed very low.

Incarceration rates in the 20th century did not experience nearly as many rises and falls. (In the following description of incarceration rates, I'll focus on the rate for men, with the understanding that the rate for women is only about half that of men.) Despite the dramatic crime increase during Prohibition, the incarceration rate merely rose from 150 per 100K in 1925 to 250 per 100K in 1939. The rate fell back to around 200 by 1945 and stayed at about that level throughout the 1950s and didn't see much of a rise until around 1975 despite the increase in crime rates. However, the incarceration rate rose to around 300 per 100K by 1980 and then shot up dramatically, reaching a peak of around 900 per 100K in 1999 even as the crime rate dropped. Since then, the incarceration rate has remained high, fluctuating between 900 & 1000 per 100K in the 2000s. This big discrepancy between historic lows in the violent crime rate and historically high incarceration rate created a political push for criminal justice reform during the second term of Obama's presidency. These efforts partly payed off, so that by 2016 the incarceration rate was at a 20-year low of around 860 per 100K. Nevertheless, the U.S. incarceration rate remains quite high by the standards of the early to mid 20th century and is still the highest by far in the developed world.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In a meetup back in May of 2017 entitled "The Historical Study of Violence" we looked at various theories for the crime rate drop of the 1990s which include a reduction in unwanted children due to the legalization of abortion after Roe v. Wade, a reduction in childhood lead exposure after the ban on leaded paint in 1978 & leaded gasoline in 1995, the "broken windows policing" of the 1990s which focused on cleaning up neighborhoods by targeting even nuisance crimes, the improved economy of the 1990s, and the subject of this discussion -- i.e. a reduction of criminals on the street due to mass incarceration. While the abortion-crime link is now mostly considered debunked, the other theories are still seriously debated and criminologists appear to have no general consensus on what caused the crime rate to drop. You can find the discussion outline for that meetup at the following link:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/239822337/

Back in April, we had a meetup where we examined the data on racial bias in police use of force incidents in the U.S. Two of the basic takeaways was that the data collection & aggregation on police use of force isn't very comprehensive, but even with the data we have there was a lot of dishonest "massaging" of statistics to either support or counter the charges of systematic racism by police depending on the ideological biases of the journalists & pundits telling the story. You can find the discussion outline for that meetup at the following link:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/249125196/

(In that meetup in April, we discussed a post by the rationalist blogger Scott Alexander. He found that the best studies that control for crime rate differentials indicate there's ambiguity about the level of racial bias in police stops & minor drug arrests, but there seems to be little or no racial bias in arrests for serious violent crime, prosecutions or convictions. The actual level of racial bias is limited & only unambiguously present in sentencing, and there only at a level of 10-20%, and that only if you believe the most damning studies. Nevertheless, income disparities between blacks & whites means that police work that focuses more on poor urban neighborhoods has disproportionate racial effects.)

An in March of 2017, we had a meetup on the War on Drugs. In the 1st section of that discussion, we discussed two conspiracy theories for why marijuana is illegal -- i.e. Nixon wanted to punish his political enemies (i.e. black activists & anti-war hippies) by busting them for smoking pot and/or William Randolph Hearst wanted to keep the price of paper high by stopping competition from hemp. The latter conspiracy theory is dubious, but the first one is a bit more plausible. You can find the discussion outline for that meetup at the following link:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/237619544/

NOTE: This discussion will be preceded by a meetup from 1-3pm by the Philly Political Agnostics entitled "Crime & Theories of Punishment". To check out the outline & RSVP, follow the link below:
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/dxmsjqyxqbvb/

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of the mainstream conspiracy theories about mass incarceration in the U.S. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 44 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. PRIVATE PRISONS & THE "PRISON-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX"

  • WHAT PERCENTAGE OF U.S. PRISONERS ARE CURRENTLY IN PRIVATE PRISONS? WHAT PERCENTAGE OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ARE IN PRIVATE DETENTION FACILITIES?

  • DID THE PRIVATE PRISON BOOM PRECEDE OR FOLLOW THE TREND TOWARDS MASS INCARCERATION?

  • DOES LOBBYING BY PRIVATE PRISONS CREATE A PERVERSE INCENTIVE TOWARDS MASS INCARCERATION? CAN CORRECTIONAL OFFICERS UNIONS AT STATE & FEDERAL PRISONS ENGAGE IN LOBBYING?

  • ARE CONDITIONS IN PRIVATE PRISONS MORE DANGEROUS TO INMATES?

  • COULD THE MISTAKEN BELIEF THAT PRIVATE PRISONS ARE THE MAJOR DRIVER OF MASS INCARCERATION BE AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT ROBERT NOZICK SARCASTICALLY CALLED "NORMATIVE SOCIOLOGY" - I.E. THE STUDY OF WHAT THE CAUSES OF SOCIAL PROBLEMS OUGHT TO BE?

1a) Adam Conover, "The Shocking Way Private Prisons Make Money" (video - 4:40 min, start at 1:08)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqQa_0gM6hg&t=68s

1b) Robby Soave, "Are Privatized Prisons The Problem?" (video - 2:20 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWTj053b9oc

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II. PRISON LABOR AS "MODERN DAY SLAVERY":

  • DID PRISON LABOR BEGIN IN SOUTHERN STATES AS A REPLACEMENT FOR SLAVE LABOR? ARE SOUTHERN STATES - AND "RED" STATES IN GENERAL - STILL MORE RELIANT ON PRISON LABOR THAN "BLUE" STATES?

  • DO SOME STATE GOVERNMENTS INTENTIONALLY INCARCERATE MORE LOW-LEVEL OFFENDERS & DENY THEM PAROLE TO ENSURE A STEADY SUPPLY OF CHEAP PRISON LABOR?

  • WHAT PERCENTAGE OF PRISON LABOR IS FOR PRIVATE CORPORATIONS AS OPPOSED TO ROUTINE CHORES WITHIN THE PRISON (E.G. LAUNDRY, COOKING) OR STATE INDUSTRIES (E.G. LICENSE PLATES & ROAD SIGNS)?

  • IS PRISON LABOR FAVORED BY CORPORATIONS AS A WAY TO UNDERCUT THE MINIMUM WAGE? IF NOT, WHY DO PEOPLE BELIEVE THIS?

  • IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE THAT PRISON LABOR IS ACTUALLY BENEFICIAL FOR INMATES, E.G. TEACHING JOB SKILLS AND/OR REDUCING IDLENESS & ALIENATION THAT CAN BREED VIOLENCE?

2a) BBC, "Are American prisoners modern day slaves?" (video - 5:15 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EZygf-nqpU

2b) HeWhoGoesByMazz, "The Myth of Corporate Prison Labor" (video - 16:53 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvsiun6VLdA

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III. "SUPER-PREDATORS" & THE SCHOOL-TO-PRISON PIPELINE:

  • DID CRIMINOLOGISTS COIN THE "SUPER-PREDATOR" TERM IN THE 1990s TO INTENTIONALLY DEMONIZE BLACK TEENAGERS OR DUE TO A MISTAKEN ANALYSIS OF JUVENILE CRIME TRENDS?

  • DID FOR-PROFIT JUVENILE DETENTION FACILITIES LIKE THE ONE INVOLVED IN THE "KIDS FOR CASH SCANDAL" CAUSE THE YOUTH INCARCERATION RATE TO RISE?

  • ARE RACIAL MINORITIES DISPROPORTIONATELY SUBJECT TO SCHOOL DISCIPLINARY MEASURES, INCLUDING SUSPENSION & EXPULSION?

  • DO SCHOOL RESOURCE OFFICERS MAKE SCHOOLS SAFER?

  • DO ZERO TOLERANCE POLICIES IN SCHOOLS LEAD TO MASS INCARCERATION OF MINORITY YOUTH?

  • DO PRIVATE PRISONS TRACK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL READING SCORES TO PREDICT WHERE THEY NEED TO BUILD MORE PRISONS?

  • IS IT TRUE THAT THERE'S CURRENTLY MORE BLACK MEN IN PRISON THAN IN COLLEGE? IF NOT, WHY DID THIS CLAIM GO VIRAL?

  • DID OBAMA'S 2014 "DEAR COLLEAGUE" LETTER ADVISING SCHOOLS TO REDUCE "DISPARATE IMPACT" IN DISCIPLINE BACKFIRE & MAKE SCHOOLS MORE DANGEROUS? DID IT CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARKLAND H.S. SHOOTING BY OBSCURING NIKOLAS CRUZ'S VIOLENT BEHAVIOR?

3a) Vox, "The school to prison pipeline, explained" (video - 3:16 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HoKkasEyDOI

3b) OAN, "Education Dept. Faces Calls to Rescind Obama-Era School Discipline Policy" (video - 3:27 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5T4ztN6K3Z8

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IV. THE WAR ON DRUGS AS A DRIVER OF MASS INCARCERATION & MICHELLE ALEXANDER'S "NEW JIM CROW" THEORY:

  • DID NIXON START THE WAR ON DRUGS PRIMARILY TO DISRUPT CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVISM & THE ANTI-WAR MOVEMENT?

  • DID THE WAR ON DRUGS LEAD TO MASS INCARCERATION? IF SO, IS IT BY INCARCERATING DRUG USERS, DRUG DEALERS, OR BOTH?

  • WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT BASE RATES OF DRUG USE AMONG WHITES & BLACKS? DOES DRUG ENFORCEMENT DISPROPORTIONATELY TARGET BLACKS?

  • IS CRACK COCAINE POSSESSION PUNISHED MORE HEAVILY THAN POWDER COCAINE TO SPECIFICALLY TARGET BLACKS DRUG ADDICTS FOR INCARCERATION OR BECAUSE CRACK IS MORE ADDICTIVE? WAS THE FAIR SENTENCING ACT OF 2010 SIGNED BY OBAMA THAT CHANGED THE SENTENCING DISPARITY FROM 100-TO-1 TO 18-TO-1 A GOOD IDEA OR STILL UNFAIR?

  • DID THE 1994 CRIME BILL SIGNED BY BILL CLINTON EXACERBATE MASS INCARCERATION, IN PARTICULAR DUE TO ITS FEDERAL "THREE STRIKES LAW"? IF SO, COULD IT BE AN HONEST MISTAKE BASED ON PUBLIC FEAR CAUSED BY THE MUCH HIGHER CRIME RATE OF THE EARLY 1990s (E.G. DID BLACK LEADERS SUPPORT IT), OR WAS IT OBVIOUSLY RACIST IN ITS INTENT?

4a) Macat, "An Introduction to Michelle Alexander's The New Jim Crow" (video - 3:30 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWU6ZfnqNHM

4b) Ben Shapiro, "Debunks Racial Discrimination Myth Within our Justice System" (video - 5:23 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkQUej3v3Qs

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Cafe Walnut
703 Walnut Street · Philadelphia, PA
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