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Biweekly Discussion - Do Bankers Rule the World?

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Brian B.
Biweekly Discussion - Do Bankers Rule the World?

Details

We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

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DO BANKERS RULE THE WORLD?

ASSESSING CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUT BANKS & BANKING POLICY

INTRODUCTION:

This meetup will address arguments commonly found on both the political left & right about the dangers of U.S. banking policies, institutions like the Federal Reserve, the gold standard, and various plots by elite bankers. We'll try to sort out the rational critiques of things like irresponsible monetary policy and unethical or illegal banking practices from the irrational conspiracy theories about evil bankers colluding on a massive scale for centuries, controlling all of the world's leaders, and crushing anyone who gets in their way.

In the 1st section of our discussion, we'll look at the conspiracy theories surrounding the Rothschild banking dynasty, particularly the belief that they profited off of the financial speculation surrounding the Battle of Waterloo, that they used Alexander Hamilton to exert influence on the First Bank of the United States, that they had a hand in the creation of the Federal Reserve, and that they funded the rise of Nazi Germany.

In the 2nd section, we'll look at conspiracy theories about banking tycoon J.P. Morgan, particularly concerning his role in the Panics of 1893 & 1907, and the secret meeting on Jekyll Island in 1912 that led to the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

In the 3rd section, we'll look at FDR's New Deal and how it may have angered some elite bankers enough to try to orchestrate a military coup - the "Business Plot" - that some historians argue was narrowly averted by General Smedley Butler's whistleblowing.

In the 4th section, we'll look at how Richard Nixon took the US off the international gold standard in 1972 and brokered the "petrodollar" deal with Saudi Arabia to prop up the dollar with oil, which has led to accusations that this was a "deal with the devil" that has caused the US to invade multiple countries whenever they tried to break away from this system.

NOTE: We covered this topic in a meetup last year, but the 3rd & 4th sections were different. We covered some conspiracy theories about the gold standard and allegations about Goldman Sachs corrupt banking practices. To check out what we covered, click on the link below:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/255695734/

THE SOIL FROM WHENCE CONSPIRACY THEORIES EMERGE - POOR FINANCIAL LITERACY & MISTAKEN FOLK BELIEFS ABOUT BANKS:

Before we dive into the topics I've listed in the body of the discussion outline, I wanted to make 6 quick points about how the average layperson harbors misconceptions about finance & banking and how this leaves them susceptible to conspiracy theories. (I've provided links beneath several points, but you're under no obligation to read them unless you want to.)

  1. To judge the veracity of conspiracy theories about corrupt "banksters", you have to start with an understanding of what non-corrupt banking policies would look like. Unfortunately, we don't have time to cover that here. Instead, I scheduled another discussion before this one from 1-3pm on banking policy - you can check out the discussion outline & RSVP here:
    https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/txqhxqyznbjb/

That discussion will provide some "Econ 101" type background information on what money & credit are, how interest on loans works, what commercial & investment banks do, etc. We'll review why most mainstream economists approve of the U.S. issuing a fiat currency not backed by gold, having a semi-autonomous central banking system (i.e. the Federal Reserve), allowing fractional reserve banking, etc, and why some heterodox economists disagree with this. We'll also briefly cover banking regulations & some relevant laws, such as the Glass-Steagall and Dodd-Frank Acts. Unfortunately, for those who couldn't attend this meetup and who don't have any prior education in the economics or laws of banking, this means that you're going into this discussion of banking conspiracies without an understanding of what beneficial & legal banking practices look like, and this makes it hard to spot harmful & illegal banking practices. We'll just have to do the best we can, but this is something to be aware of.

  1. Studies indicate that the average American's financial literacy is quite low. As part of a longitudinal panel study that surveyed a representative sample of about 20,000 Americans, the economist Annamaria Lusardi asked participants 3 basic questions on interest, inflation, and risk diversification and found only 30% could answer all three correctly. This indicates that at least 70% of Americans probably don't have the ability to understand even the simplest issues in personal finance or economics. It's reasonable to assume the average American could be very vulnerable to conspiracy theories which don't require any math skills to comprehend, and yet provide simple black & white narratives that purport to explain everything wrong with our economy in terms of bankers behaving like the supervillains in comic books & James Bond films.
  1. Psychological studies have found that most people appear to have an instinctual aversion to the idea of businesses making a profit since there's an implicit assumption that we live in a zero-sum world where one person's gain must come at another person's loss. This aversion to profit appears to be especially strong for profit made from lending money at interest which appears to violate instinctual norms of "reciprocal altruism".
  1. Variations in 3 of the "Big Five" personality traits (i.e. Agreeableness, Neuroticism & Conscientiousness) are associated with variations in economic ideology. The more Agreeable & Neurotic you are, the more likely you are to favor altruistic economic policies & be anxious about economic risks, while the more Conscientious you are the more likely you are to oppose redistribution to people you view as "freeloaders".
  1. Differences in personality traits probably play a role in the different fears about the banking system people have depending on their economic ideology. At least anecdotally, it appears to me that fiscal conservatives tend to fear Big Government taxing away their hard-earned income & bailing out banks, and they often resent the Federal Reserve for the hidden tax of inflation. Conversely, fiscal liberals tend to fear a dog-eat-dog world where heartless capitalists & "banksters" exploit the less fortunate with impunity, and they favor government intervention to prevent this.

My educated guess about partisan differences in resentment of bankers is somewhat supported by a 2016 study that did find a partisan split among people who view the American economy as "rigged". Clinton supporters were slightly more likely to say the economy rigged in favor of the rich, banks & corporations, while Trump supporters were a bit more likely to say it's rigged in favor of politicians. (The big split is on economic racism: Clinton supporters were much more likely to say the economy is rigged in favor of white people, while Trump supporters were much more likely to say it's rigged in favor of minorities.)

  1. Conspiracy theories about banking can be understood as a subtype of "folk economics", i.e. the intuitive economic beliefs of people with no formal training. A recent study indicates that when laypeople reject the "neoliberal" (i.e. free market) economic view, it tends to be for one of 3 reasons: (1) fear of the "Bad Invisible Hand" (i.e. market failure), (2) fear of "Government malfunction" (i.e. bad policies), or (3) fear of conspiracies.

LASTLY, BEFORE WE TACKLE BANKING CONSPIRACIES, WHAT ABOUT THE BROADER ISSUE OF "FINANCIALIZATION"? DO BIG INVESTMENT BANKS EXTRACT MORE PROFITS VIA RENT-SEEKING OR CAUSE MORE ECONOMIC HARM VIA MALINVESTMENT THAN THE BENEFITS WE GET FROM THEIR HELP WITH "CAPITAL ALLOCATION"?

We had a discussion in October of last year on conspiracy theories about globalization, and in the first section we looked at whether the evidence we have on life expectancy & measures of extreme poverty (less than $1.25/day) supports the assertion that globalization has made most people in the developing world better off. The evidence shows globalization has been a net benefit, even in spite of "debt trap diplomacy", poor conditions in sweatshops, pollution, the social turmoil caused by urbanization, etc. To refer back to the discussion outline, go here:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/255269097/

We could ask a similar question about the overall effect of banks; for example, by looking at the economic effects of the Federal Reserve or the growth of financial sector since the 1980s. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any comprehensive studies on this...

However, I found a blog post from former Fed economist Arnold Kling where he noted that economists "have no idea how to measure the value created by the financial sector," and he opined that economists’ analysis of the financial sector is "close to 100 percent mood affiliation" (i.e. partisan bias). This suggests we should probably keep our overall views on the effects of banking somewhat tentative...
http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/how-bad-is-financialization/

I also found a NY Times article where one of America's top economists, Greg Mankiw, disputed the oft-heard claim during the 2016 campaign season that the economy is "rigged":
"To say that the economy is rigged... assumes that some small group of oligarchs planned this outcome. Clearly, the wealthy and powerful try to protect their interests, and they sometimes succeed. But the economy is a complex, decentralized system. Many outcomes are under no one’s control. Technological change, for instance, is an emergent process reflecting the decisions of thousands of engineers and entrepreneurs. Growth slows when the pace of innovation falls below historical norms. Inequality rises when the innovations that do occur are used by skilled workers and replace unskilled workers. Such skill-biased technological change, as economists call it, is widely considered a leading cause of the increasing inequality the United States has experienced in recent decades."
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/upshot/the-economy-is-rigged-and-other-presidential-campaign-myths.html

Over at the University of Chicago's IGM Experts Panel, there's a poll of some of America's top economists that disputed the claim that the rise in wealth inequality in the US since the 1970s is primarily due to the gap between the after-tax return on capital and the economic growth rate. When returns on capital investment (r) rise faster than economic growth (g), that's often an indication that capitalists are extracting wealth from the economy - i.e. taking a "bigger slice" of the economic "pie" as opposed to "baking a bigger pie". It appears most mainstream economists don't think that's happening, at least not on a big enough scale to explain the wealth inequality we see today.
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/piketty-on-inequality

The economist associated with the "r>g" explanation of wealth inequality - Thomas Piketty - countered that he doesn't hold this view either. He countered that he actually thinks the major drivers of wage inequality are unequal access to job skills & higher education and a huge rise in top managerial compensation.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2014/10/no-mainstream-economists-did-not-just-reject-thomas-pikettys-big-theory.html

The majority (88%) of the IGM Experts Panel agree with Piketty about skill differentials being a factor in rising inequality.
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/inequality-and-skills

While they don't saw whether a rise in top executive pay is also a factor they do lean towards believing that many CEOs are paid more than their marginal contribution to the firm's value:
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/executive-pay

Surprisingly, while most of us probably tend to think that "financialization" is a relatively recent problem, I found a blog post where the economist Noah Smith pointed out that while finance basically doubled both its GDP share and its profit share since the big deregulation of the early 1980s, the financial sector hasn't just captured an outsized share of profits since 1980; it has done so all the way back to World War 2. He conjectures this is due to socialization of risk and economies of scale:
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/finance-has-always-been-more-profitable.html

I realize this material on financialization doesn't yield any easy answers, but I just wanted you to be aware of how economists think about the "big picture" before we dive into the details of various conspiracy theories.

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over banking and conspiracy theories. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 50 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. THE ROTHSCHILDS, THE JEWISH BANKER STEREOTYPE & ALLEGATIONS OF WAR PROFITEERING:

  • DO WE HAVE ANY EVIDENCE THAT NATHAN ROTHSCHILD REALLY SAID THAT HE DIDN'T CARE WHAT "PUPPET" WAS ON THE THRONE OF ENGLAND AS LONG AS HE CONTROLLED THE MONEY SUPPLY, AND THAT THE BEST TIME TO BUY IS WHEN THERE IS "BLOOD IN THE STREETS"?
  • WHAT'S THE EVIDENCE THAT THE ROTHSCHILDS PROFITED ON THE LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE FROM EARLY NEWS ABOUT THE BATTLE OF WATERLOO?
  • WHAT'S THE EVIDENCE THAT ALEXANDER HAMILTON ACTED AS AN AGENT OF THE ROTHSCHILDS TO SET UP THE FIRST BANK OF THE UNITED STATES?
  • WAS THE FIRST BANK OF THE U.S. DOMINATED BY FOREIGN INVESTORS, INCLUDING THE ROTHSCHILDS?
  • COULD THE ROTHSCHILDS HAVE PERSUADED THE KING OF ENGLAND TO ATTACK THE U.S., PRECIPITATING THE WAR OF 1812, BECAUSE THE U.S. DIDN'T RENEW THE FIRST BANK'S CHARTER IN 1811?
  • DID THE ROTHSCHILDS HAVE A STAKE IN ANY OF THE U.S. BANKS THAT FORMED THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM IN 1913?
  • HOW DID WWII AFFECT THE ROTHSCHILD BANKS, AND IS THERE ANY TRUTH TO THE CLAIM THEY FUNDED THE NAZIS?
  • HOW DID THE CREATION OF CENTRAL BANKS & INTRODUCTION OF NATIONAL TAXATION SYSTEMS AFFECT THE ROTHSCHILD'S FORTUNES?
  • IS THE ROTHSCHILD FAMILY'S MONEY TOO DISPERSED AMONG DISTANT FAMILY MEMBERS TO MAKE THEM A MAJOR POLITICAL FORCE TODAY?
  • EVEN IF IT'S CRAZY TO SUGGEST THAT THE ROTHSCHILDS "CONTROL THE WEATHER", SHOULD WE BE SUSPICIOUS OF THEIR PURCHASE OF THE WEATHER CHANNEL? IS THE "RESILIENT CITIES" AN ELITE SCHEME TO PROFIT OFF CLIMATE ALARMISM?
  1. Brian Dunning, "Deconstructing the Rothschild Conspiracy" (video - 14:40 min.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c21Z_tZe0-0

II. J.P. MORGAN, THE "MONEY TRUST" & THE CREATION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE:

  • WAS J.P. MORGAN A "FRONT MAN" FOR THE ROTHSCHILDS IN AMERICA, AS SOME CONSPIRACY THEORISTS ALLEGE?
  • DID J.P. MORGAN FUND NIKOLA TESLA'S WARDENCLYFFE TOWER, ONLY TO DENY ADDITIONAL FUNDS IN 1903 WHEN HE FEARED THAT IT WOULD PROVIDE "FREE ENERGY" & UNDERMINE THE MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY?
  • IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE THAT J.P. MORGAN ORCHESTRATED THE PANIC OF 1907 BY SPREADING RUMORS & CALLING IN LOANS FROM SMALLER BANKS? OR IS THIS A MISINTERPRETATION OF MORGAN'S ROLE IN QUELLING THE PANIC?
  • DID THE THREE WEALTHY BANKERS THAT DIED ON THE TITANIC (BENJAMIN GUGGENHEIM, ISIDOR STRAUSS, JOHN JACOB ASTOR IV) OPPOSE THE CREATION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE? IF SO, WHAT'S THE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT J.P. MORGAN MIGHT HAVE HAD THE TITANIC SABOTAGED TO KILL THEM OFF, OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT HE CANCELLED HIS RESERVATION & OWNED A SIGNIFICANT SHARE IN THE TITANIC'S PARENT COMPANY?
  • DID J.P. MORGAN'S "MONEY TRUST" PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN HELPING THE U.S. RAPIDLY INDUSTRIALIZE THE U.S. IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 19TH CENTURY, OR WAS IT A PARASITIC "FREE RIDER" ON THIS PROCESS?
  • WAS THE "MORGANIZATION" (I.E. INDUSTRIAL CONSOLIDATION ENABLED BY J.P. MORGAN) THAT BUILT POWERFUL INDUSTRIAL MONOPOLIES BAD FOR AMERICAN WORKERS & CONSUMERS?
  • DID J.P. MORGAN'S REPRESENTATIVES WHO SERVED ON THE BOARDS OF VARIOUS CORPORATIONS HE'D INVESTED IN IMPOSE AN UNWARRANTED TAX OR DID THEY ADD TO SHAREHOLDER VALUE BY ENSURING LONG-TERM PROFITABILITY BY REPLACING INEPT CEOs?
  • WAS THE FEDERAL RESERVE CREATED TO REPLACE J.P. MORGAN'S MONEY TRUST WITH A CENTRAL BANK THAT COULD RESOLVE FUTURE BANKING CRISES, OR DID IT MERELY GIVE THE MONEY TRUST OFFICIAL QUASI-GOVERNMENTAL STATUS?

2a) SOLA, "The Panic of 1907" (video - 4:42 min, start at 1:23)
https://youtu.be/2sIVH4wkGVg?t=83

2b) Stuff They Don't Want You To Know, "Who owns the Federal Reserve?" (video - 4:13 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afUwzA05ZGs

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III. FDR'S NEW DEAL, GOLD CONFISCATION & THE BANKER'S PLOT:

  • DID THE FEDERAL RESERVE EXACERBATE THE ECONOMIC RECESSION THAT FOLLOWED THE 1929 STOCK MARKET CRASH BY RAISING INTEREST RATES TO PREVENT GOLD FROM FLOWING OUT OF THE U.S.?
  • DID THE GOLD STANDARD MAKE THE GREAT DEPRESSION WORSE BY LIMITING THE GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY TO EMPLOY FISCAL STIMULUS?
  • WAS FDR WRONG TO ISSUE EXECUTIVE ORDER 6102 THAT PUNISHED THE "HOARDING" OF GOLD COINS, BULLION & GOLD CERTIFICATES?
  • IS IT TRUE THAT MANY OF THE BANKERS OF FDR'S DAY WERE ANGERED BY HIS SUSPENSION OF THE GOLD STANDARD?
  • DID SOME BANKERS APPROACH RETIRED GEN. SMEDLEY BUTLER ABOUT POSSIBLY LEADING THE "BONUS ARMY" OF WWI VETERANS TO WASHINGTON TO DEPOSE FDR OR FORCE HIM TO REINSTATE THE GOLD STANDARD?

3a) Bloomberg, "Gold Rush: The Day the Government Seized Americans' Bullion" (video - 1:19 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNYSX3c63LI

3b) Stuff They Don't Want You To Know, "The Business Plot" (video - 4:29 min.)
https://youtu.be/tAjBApL-MYc

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IV. NIXON, THE END OF THE GOLD STANDARD & THE CREATION OF THE PETRODOLLAR SYSTEM:

  • WAS NIXON'S DECISION TO LEAVE THE GOLD STANDARD MOTIVATED BY HIS DESIRE TO "DEFEND THE DOLLAR" AGAINST "SPECULATORS" AS HE SAID, OR WAS IT ULTIMATELY TIED TO EUROPEAN DEBTS TRYING TO REDEEM THEIR DOLLARS FOR GOLD BECAUSE THEY KNEW THE U.S. GOV'T WAS CARRYING TOO MUCH DEBT?
  • DID NIXON THINK THE STRUGGLING ECONOMY OF THE EARLY 1970s WAS PARTLY THE RESULT OF A CONSPIRACY? IF SO, WAS HE PARTLY RIGHT OR WAS THIS JUST A SIGN OF HIS PARANOIA?
  • DID HENRY KISSINGER NEGOTIATE WITH THE SAUDIS TO DENOMINATE THEIR OIL IN DOLLARS IN EXCHANGE FOR PROMISES OF U.S. MILITARY BACKING?
  • IS THE PETRODOLLAR STILL A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN MAINTAINING THE U.S. DOLLAR AS THE WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY TODAY? WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE SAUDIS DECIDED TO ACCEPT ANOTHER CURRENCY FOR THEIR OIL INSTEAD, LIKE THE EURO OR THE YUAN?
  • DOES THE U.S. OFTEN GO TO WAR TO PREVENT OTHER NATIONS FROM SETTING UP RIVALS TO THE PETRODOLLAR SYSTEM?

4a) Lewis Lehrman, "How Nixon Killed the U.S. Dollar" (video - 3:27 min.)
https://youtu.be/hRwEUtZFTo8

4b) Stuff They Don't Want You To Know, "Oil, Blood and Treasure: The Petrodollar" (video - 5:21 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf_SDNf3F_w

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Cafe Walnut
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