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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Here's the link to the event: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87967804665?pwd=OUZ4WXFlWlM3TG5VYnZ3TTMzR3ZYZz09

Meeting ID: 879 6780 4665
Passcode: 983650

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INTELLIGENCE FAILURES, BAD POLICIES & CONSPIRACY THEORIES:

EVALUATING THE COMPETING EXPLANATIONS FOR U.S. FOREIGN POLICY DEBACLES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

INTRODUCTION:

This discussion will look at the notion of "intelligence failures" in what's known as the "intelligence cycle" — the process by which government agencies tasked with monitoring foreign actors collect, analyze, process, and disseminate critical information. See the Wikipedia entry on intelligence failure for a basic overview:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failure_in_the_intelligence_cycle

Intelligence agencies cannot typically authorize military actions independently, so this opens up the possibility for "policy failures" when they give the President & his national security advisors accurate information but the administration makes the wrong decision.

The idea that bad outcomes in foreign policy generally stem from "intelligence failures" and "policy failures" conflicts with the idea — prevalent among conspiracy theorists — that the U.S. government is far too powerful, well-informed & well-organized to suffer from these types of problems. Conspiracy theorists typically believe that many of the terror attacks, military coups & popular uprisings we see on the news were actually engineered by the CIA or other intelligence agencies, the at the behest of the military-industrial complex & policy elites (sometimes collectively referred to as the "deep state") who have a hidden agenda.

The skeptic community often takes a "generalist" approach to debunking conspiracy theories, i.e. they look for general rules that govern their plausibility, such as the Bayesian interpretation of "Hanlon's Razor". For those who don't remember, Hanlon's Razor is a special version of Occam's Razor which states that it's more parsimonious to "never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by stupidity [or incompetence]". This principle doesn't preclude the possibility of conspiracies, but it leads one to assume that bad outcomes in both domestic & foreign policy are more likely to be accidents rather than conspiracies. To those familiar with military parlance, Hanlon's Razor ties in with beliefs about "Murphy's law" and the "fog of war" as the causes of failure in military operations.

Conspiracy theories about attacks on the US typically come in 3 varieties: (1) belief that the US orchestrated a "false flag" attack on itself to justify retaliation, and (2) belief that the US allowed an enemy attack on "cannon fodder" to justify retaliation, (3) belief that the US created a "hoax" - i.e. falsely reported an attack that never occurred - to justify retaliation. In the context of the 9/11 attacks, the first 2 types of conspiracy theories are known as the "MIHOP" (Made It Happen On Purpose) and "LIHOP" (Let It Happen On Purpose) theories.

Of course, the elaborate MIHOP theories about 9/11 being an "inside job" with "controlled demolition" of the Twin Towers and a missile hitting the Pentagon are relatively easy to debunk. For a comprehensive debunking, see Popular Mechanics & Skeptic Magazine's coverage:
https://www.popularmechanics.com/9-11-conspiracy-theories/
https://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/06-09-11/
https://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/11-09-07/#feature

However, some of the LIHOP conspiracy theories for 9/11 are on their face slightly more plausible, and believers in all 3 types of conspiracy theories for other major attacks & threats to the US can muster some circumstantial evidence.

There's credible evidence that points to "neoimperialist" goals in certain US policy circles & a willingness to deceive the public. For example, proponents can point to policy papers in the public domain that support their claims of an only semi-secret plan to overthrow hostile regimes & establish U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. The classic example is the report published in 2000 by a neoconservative think tank, Project for a New American Century (PNAC), that presciently noted that the process of expanding America's military "is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century#Rebuilding_America's_Defenses_2

Another oft-cited proof of elaborate neocon plans for the Middle East comes from retired General Wesley Clark, who claimed in 2007 that during a visit to the Pentagon in the autumn of 2001 shortly after 9/11, an unnamed senior general told him that the Bush administration had a confidential paper proposing a series of regime change operations over 5 years in 7 countries: Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Libya, Sudan, Iran & Yemen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesley_Clark#Post-2004_campaign

During Barack Obama's presidency, his deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes continually complained about the intrasigence of foreign policy advisors in DC think tanks, who he referred to collectively as "the Blob". Ben Rhodes' contrarian views caused quite stir when he was interviewed by David Semuels for a NY Times magazine profile, and he laid out all the tricks Obama administration had to play to get the Iran nuclear deal passed over the objections of DC foreign policy hawks who were bent on confrontation with Tehran.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Rhodes_(White_House_staffer)#Controversies

After Trump's election, many of his supporters with isolationist or "America First" views on foreign policy have worried that if he tries to deviate too much from the interventionism that characterizes the bipartisan foreign policy consensus of the "deep state" (their somewhat analogous term for Rhodes' "Blob"), he would be framed for something to justify his impeachment. This conspiratorial view was encouraged when Defense Secretary Jim Mattis resigned in Dec. 2018 over Trump's plans to withdraw US troops from Kurdish strongholds in northern Syria, as well as when both Democrats & many Republicans in the House voting 354 to 60 to condemn Trump's withdrawal in Oct. 2019, and this was going on amid the efforts to impeach Trump (albeit for other reasons). Similarly, when Trump announced his intentions to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2020, many of his supporters perceived the sudden breaking of the NY Times story about "Russian bounties" on U.S. troops as a covert attempt to sabotage his negotiations with the Taliban.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_the_Syrian_civil_war#2019_drawdown_of_U.S._ground_forces
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_bounty_program#Trump_administration

The decision to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan in 2021 was one of the few issues where Joe Biden agreed with Trump. As we discussed in our last meetup, some political commentators like Glenn Greenwald are now predicting that Biden's bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan has earned him the ire of the national security establishment and their lackeys in the national press corps who cover foreign policy. Only time will tell if this is true...

In this meetup, we'll look at 4 common examples of what mainstream scholars describe as failures of U.S. intelligence and/or poor decision-making: (1) the 9/11 attacks, (2) the 2003 Iraq invasion, (3) the US intervention in the Libyan Civil War, and (4) the US intervention in the Syrian Civil War & the rise of ISIS. We'll contrast the "intelligence failure" & "policy failure" explanations of these events with counter-arguments that these events were in fact the intentional result of the U.S. deep state attempting to dominate the Middle East by deposing hostile regimes, establishing puppet states & controlling the flow of oil & other strategic resources.

RELATED MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

We covered the influence of the "neoconservatives" and the "Israel lobby" on U.S. foreign policy in a meetup back in June of 2019 entitled "Neoliberals, Neocons, and NWO 2.0". The group of conservative intellectuals known as the "neocons" certainly had a lot of influence during the Bush administration and enthusiastically backed the 2003 Iraq invasion, as did the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, but as we discussed there were also a significant amount of support for the war among Democrats & U.S. foreign policy didn't change drastically under Obama, suggesting there's a much broader & bipartisan foreign policy consensus at work. Similarly, while Israel certainly has a strong lobby in the U.S. and plays a key role in helping shape U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, other allies like Saudi Arabia & Turkey play a major role, and the lobbies of the oil & defense industries do as well. Those who see U.S. foreign policy as a product of a Zionist conspiracy have to ignored a lot of other influences to maintain that belief. See Parts 3 & 4 of my discussion outline:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/nfbkqqyzhbjc/

We had a meetup back in Nov. 2019 entitled "Has Israel Conspired Against the U.S.?" and in Part 3 we discussed the mystery of the "dancing Israelis" - Israeli nationals who allegedly worked for a moving company who were seen celebrating as the Twin Towers fell and were later detained & questioned by police. We also discussed the mystery of the Israeli "art students" and the suspicions about them working as spies. These concerns into some conspiracy theories about Israel masterminding the 9/11 attacks as a "false flag" to get the U.S. to commit to fighting in the Middle East. Even apart from the difficult logistics of coordinating the 9/11 attacks in secret and then fooling U.S. intelligence agencies as to the true perpetrators, these conspiracy theories fail to explain why Israel would want the U.S. to invade Afghanistan in the hunt for Osama bin Laden. Instead, Israel would've presumably tried to pin the attacks on Iran, since by the late 1990s the Iranians were Israel's top concern as they sponsored Hezbollah in Lebanon.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/rgrhxqyzpbwb/

Back on Sept. 5th, we had a discussion entitled "Myths, Misconceptions & Conspiracy Theories about Afghanistan". In Part 2, we discussed the U.S. funding & training of the Mujahideen in the Afghan-Soviet War and the allegations that this led to the rise of the Taliban. We also covered concerns about the CIA operating in cahoots with Afghan opium traffickers. In Part 3, we discussed various conspiracy theories about the hunt for Osama bin Laden and the raid that killed him in 2011. In Part 4, we discussed the NY Times article in June of 2020 that claimed there were "Russian bounties" on U.S. troops in Afghanistan, as well as why that story began to look rather dubious by April of 2021.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/sxpscsyccmbhb/

The Danish skeptics Steen Svanholm & Claus Larsen gave a talk debunking some of the most common 9/11 conspiracy theories back on Sept. 6th.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/280419833/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of the conflicting theories about 9/11, the Iraq War, and the civil wars in Libya & Syria. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion.

The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 45 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. As you can see, I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever questions you may have. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. THE 9/11 ATTACKS & THE "LIHOP" THEORY:

  • DID U.S. INTELLIGENCE FAIL TO FORESEE THE 9/11 ATTACKS? IF SO, WAS THIS DUE TO OVERCOLLECTION OF DATA BY THE NSA AND/OR INADEQUATE INTELLIGENCE SHARING BETWEEN THE NSA, CIA & FBI?
  • DID PROJECT "ABLE DANGER" IDENTIFY SEVERAL 9/11 HIJACKERS AS SECURITY THREATS AHEAD OF TIME? IF SO, WHY WEREN'T THEY ARRESTED?
  • DID THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IGNORE MULTIPLE WARNINGS OF AN IMPENDING ATTACK EARLIER IN 2001? IF SO, WAS THIS MORE LIKELY TO BE DUE TO CONFUSION ABOUT WHEN & WHERE EXACTLY THE ATTACK WOULD OCCUR, OR NEGLECT OF THE WARNINGS DUE TO ISSUES THAT SEEMED MORE PRESSING, OR BECAUSE BUSH DECIDED TO LET THE 9/11 ATTACKS HAPPEN TO CREATE A PRETEXT FOR WAR?
  • WHY DIDN'T BUSH APPEAR SURPRISED WHEN HE WAS FIRST INFORMED OF THE 2nd WTC ATTACK & CONTINUE READING A BOOK TO SCHOOL CHILDREN FOR ANOTHER 7 MINUTES?
  • WHY DID THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION LET MANY SAUDIS LEAVE THE U.S. RIGHT AFTER THE 9/11 ATTACKS, INCLUDING BIN LADEN FAMILY MEMBERS?
  • WAS BUSH SO FRIENDLY WITH PROMINENT SAUDIS LIKE BANDAR BIN SULTAN THAT HE MIGHT'VE BEEN WILLING TO OVERLOOK THEIR ROLE IN THE 9/11 ATTACKS?
  • DID THE 28 REDACTED PAGES IN THE 9/11 REPORT SHOW THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THE SAUDI GOV'T AIDED AL-QAEDA IN PLANNING THE ATTACKS? IF NOT, DOES IT SUGGEST THAT SOME PROMINENT SAUDIS MIGHT HAVE "GONE ROGUE" & HAD SECRET DEALINGS WITH AL-QAEDA?

1a) Michael Hayden vs Glenn Greenwald, "9/11 as an intelligence failure" (video - 6:17 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV3CN7pNGb8

1b) David Pakman, "Docs Show Bush Warned Numerous Times Before 9/11, Ignored Warnings" (video - 3:53 min, listen to 3:25)
https://youtu.be/N6dE3RTX9bY

1c) Trace Dominguez, "What Was Saudi Arabia's Role In 9/11?" (video - 4:35 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBs19Jkil5Q

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II. THE 2003 IRAQ INVASION & SADDAM'S ALLEGED WMDs & AL-QAEDA TIES:

  • WHAT DID WE KNOW ABOUT IRAQ'S WMD PROGRAMS IN THE 1990s? DID UN WEAPONS INSPECTORS THINK HE WAS HIDING WMDs? WHY WAS SADDAM SO EVASIVE IF HE HAD NOTHING TO HIDE?
  • WAS THE FACT THAT SADDAM WAS IMPORTING ALUMINUM TUBES GOOD EVIDENCE THAT HE WAS USING THEM FOR A URANIUM CENTRIFUGE, OR WAS IT MORE LIKELY HE WAS USING THEM FOR CONVENTIONAL ROCKETS?
  • WERE THE DOCUMENTS INDICATING THAT SADDAM WAS TRYING TO ACQUIRE YELLOW CAKE URANIUM FROM NIGER A FORGERY? IF SO, DID THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION KNOW THIS AT THE TIME?
  • DID SOMEONE IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION (SCOOTER LIBBY OR RICHARD ARMITAGE) "OUT" VALERIE PLAME AS A CIA AGENT TO POST REPORTER BOB NOVAK IN RETALIATION FOR HER HUSBAND, JOE WILSON, PUBLICLY QUESTIONING THE INTEL ON SADDAM'S WMD PROGRAM IN A NY TIMES OP-ED?
  • DOES THE DOWNING STREET MEMO SUGGEST THAT BRITISH INTELLIGENCE KNEW SADDAM DIDN'T HAVE WMDs, OR MERELY THAT THEY WEREN'T AS SURE AS TONY BLAIR SUGGESTED PUBLICLY?
  • DOES THE EVIDENCE SUGGEST THAT BUSH INTENTIONALLY LIED ABOUT SADDAM HAVING WMDs, OR WAS THIS AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE CREATED BY CONFIRMATION BIAS & MOTIVATED REASONING?
  • IS THERE EVIDENCE THAT SADDAM SPONSORED TERRORIST GROUPS? IF SO, WHICH ONES?
  • DID TERRORISTS UNDERGO AIRPLANE HIJACKING TRAINING AT SALMAN PAK IN IRAQ IN THE LATE 1990s?
  • DID ONE OF THE 9/11 HIJACKERS, MOHAMED ATTA, MEET WITH IRAQI INTELLIGENCE IN PRAGUE IN APR. 2001?
  • DID SADDAM HAVE ANY TIES TO AL-QAEDA? IF NOT, WAS THIS AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, OR DID THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION SIMPLY LIE?
  • IS THERE EVIDENCE THAT DICK CHENEY PROMOTED THE IRAQ WAR TO BENEFIT HALIBURTON & US OIL COMPANIES?

2a) Andrew Roberts, "Why America Invaded Iraq" (video - 5:44 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2tbpUqNwRU

2b) RT, "'We knew Iraq had no WMDs' - former CIA analyst [Ray McGovern]" (video - 5:32 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_Um-BsAi4M

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III. THE LIBYAN CIVIL WAR & BENGHAZI:

  • DID THE U.S. WANT TO GET RID OF GADDAFI BECAUSE HE WAS MASSACRING LIBYAN CIVILIANS, OR BECAUSE HE WAS ABOUT TO LAUNCH A GOLD-BACKED PAN-AFRICAN CURRENCY THAT WOULD DISPLACE THE DOLLAR AS A MAJOR WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY?
  • WAS THERE ANY TRUTH TO REPORTS THAT GADDAFI WAS RECRUITING "AFRICAN MERCENARIES" AND DISPENSING VIAGRA TO HIS TROOPS TO FACILITATE MASS RAPE, OR WAS THIS JUST WESTERN WAR PROPAGANDA CREATED TO JUSTIFY INTERVENTION?
  • WERE REPORTS OF GADDAFI'S FORCES ENGAGING IN "GENOCIDE" & BOMBING CIVILIANS FACTUAL OR MERELY WAR PROPAGANDA?
  • WAS LIBYA BECOMING A FAILED STATE & DEVOLVING INTO CIVIL WAR AFTER GADDAFI'S DEATH PREDICTABLE OR AN UNFORESEEABLE ACCIDENT?
  • DID THE CIA FAIL TO FORESEE THE 2012 BENGHAZI ATTACK, OR WERE REQUESTS FOR MORE SECURITY IGNORED?
  • WAS IT PRECIPITATED BY AN ANTI-MUSLIM VIDEO OR CIA ARMS SMUGGLING FROM LIBYA TO SYRIA?
  • WERE POTENTIAL RESCUERS TOLD TO "STAND DOWN"? IF SO, WHY? IF NOT, WHY WOULD ANYONE THINK THIS?
  • WERE THE BENGHAZI HEARINGS JUST INTENDED TO CREATE A "PSEUDO-SCANDAL" FOR REPUBLICANS TO TARNISH HILLARY CLINTON'S REPUTATION?

3a) RT, "Failed state of Libya ‘serves the purposes of the US’ - foreign policy analyst [Paul Craig Roberts]" (video - 5:16 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hh7P2w8u1qk

3b) Hank Green, "Benghazi Explained" (video - 9:26 min, listen to 7:30)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btlqXbH1mCM

3c) Jewish News One, "CNN Benghazi Claims: Report alleges CIA operatives in Libya were sending weapons to Syrian rebels" (video - 2:02 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IuckdFeUXA

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IV. THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR & THE RISE OF ISIS:

  • ARE RUSSIA & NATO INTERESTED IN SYRIA MOSTLY DUE TO COMPETING PROPOSALS FOR OIL PIPELINES & THE DESIRE TO USE OIL TO GAIN LEVERAGE IN EUROPE?
  • IS IT POSSIBLE THAT ASSAD GOT HIS CHEMICAL WEAPONS FROM SADDAM HUSSEIN SHORTLY BEFORE THE 2003 IRAQ INVASION?
  • WAS NOT ENFORCING OBAMA'S "RED LINE" & SETTLING FOR (ALLEGED) DISPOSAL OF ASSAD'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN 2013 AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, A POLICY FAILURE, OR A SMART MOVE TO AVOID A PROXY WAR WITH RUSSIA THAT PARTIALLY BACKFIRED?
  • ARE DIFFICULTIES IN ESTABLISHING THE SOURCE OF CHEMICAL ATTACKS IN SYRIA AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE? OR DO WE KNOW THE CHEMICAL ATTACKS CAME FROM ASSAD & STORIES TO THE CONTRARY ARE MERELY CONSPIRACY THEORIES?
  • ARE THE "WHITE HELMETS" MERELY A CIVILIAN SEARCH & RESCUE TEAM, OR ARE THEY A COVER FOR RADICAL ISLAMIC FIGHTERS?
  • DID THE U.S. INTENTIONALLY ARM RADICAL ISLAMISTS TO FIGHT ASSAD OR WAS IT ACCIDENTAL? HOW DID U.S. EQUIPMENT END UP IN THE HANDS OF ISIS?
  • IS IT TRUE ISRAEL FUNDED & ARMED RADICAL ISLAMISTS TO TOPPLE ASSAD? OR DID THEY MERELY RENDER MEDICAL AID TO SOME WOUNDED SYRIANS, A FEW OF WHOM BELONGED TO RADICAL GROUPS?
  • DOES OBAMA DESERVE SOME CREDIT FOR EFFORTS TO DEFEAT ISIS IN 2014-2016, OR WAS THIS MOSTLY THE RESULT OF TRUMP'S ACTIONS IN 2017-2019? AND DID ISIS REBOUND AFTER TROOPS WERE WITHDRAWN IN 2019, AS MANY FEARED?
  • WERE TRUMP'S STATEMENTS ABOUT "TAKING THE OIL" IN IRAQ & SYRIA CONDEMNED IN THE MEDIA BECAUSE THE FOREIGN POLICY ESTABLISHMENT DIDN'T THINK IT WAS A GOOD STRATEGY, OR MERELY BECAUSE HE SAID IT ALOUD?
  • DID THE MILITARY OFFICIALS TRICK TRUMP INTO THINKING U.S. TROOPS HAD LEFT SYRIA IN 2019, OR DID HE AGREE TO KEEP SOME TROOPS IN SYRIA TO "KEEP THE OIL"??

4a) NPR w/ Susan Rice, "Deadly Attack Highlights Failure To Eliminate Syria's Chemical Weapons" (podcast - 4:05 min.)
https://www.npr.org/2017/04/10/523311385/deadly-attack-highlights-failure-to-eliminate-syria-s-chemical-weapons

4b) RT, "US has ‘zero intelligence’ on Syrian conflict [and chemical weapons attacks] – fmr CIA officer [Philip Giraldi]" (video - 3:18 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s28TtmWXQKk

4c) VOA News, "Experts Question Trump's Focus on Syrian Oil Fields" (video - 3:32 min.)
https://youtu.be/ePPZgQObT2k

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