Biweekly Discussion - Is Mass Migration a Crisis or a Moral Panic?

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Here's the link to the event: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88963595882?pwd=THVNWGhwcWUxVW1Gb0RvSkJiZ2x3UT09

Meeting ID: 889 6359 5882
Passcode: 580060

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IS MASS MIGRATION A CRISIS OR A MORAL PANIC?

FACT-CHECKING THE NEWS MEDIA NARRATIVES ABOUT "ILLEGAL/UNDOCUMENTED" IMMIGRATION

This meetup will try to separate fact from fiction in the news coverage of the Central American migrant crisis & U.S. border enforcement policy, as well as the moral panics over demographic change, an alleged crime epidemic, widespread voter fraud, and welfare abuse committed by illegal immigrants.

While the skeptic community typically does a good job at debunking paranormal claims, blatant pseudoscience & wild conspiracy theories, there's been a bit of a deficiency in terms of teaching laypeople how to develop "news literacy" skills that deal with assessing mainstream media narratives. We need to develop a basic skill set that will allow us to consume the news critically and recognize emotional appeals, anecdotal evidence, poorly supported claims & false inferences -- and that's what this discussion will attempt to remedy, with the illegal immigration debate as our test case.

In preparation, it might be a good idea to review the 9 rules from Carl Sagan' s classic "Baloney Detection Kit":
https://www.brainpickings.org/2014/01/03/baloney-detection-kit-carl-sagan/

As you can see, in addition the video clips of news reports contesting various claims about illegal immigrants, I've also linked reports from various fact-checker agencies. These are good because they focus on verifying or debunking specific claims without a lot of extraneous material, but the quality of fact-checks varies, the major ones have a left-leaning bias, and they still don't provide a comprehensive understanding of the issue.

In general, with complex political issues, we need to look past news articles & fact-checks to research by subject matter experts. And don't assume one research study can settle a complicated issue. Ideally, you want to find a meta-analysis or systematic review of all the research on a subject by a non-partisan body like the National Academy of Sciences. Failing that, look for a poll of the relevant subject matter experts. If you can't find anything to indicate that subject matter experts have converged on a high degree of consensus around an empirical question, you should try to remain relatively agnostic.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

This is a revised version of a discussion we had back in 2018. The biggest difference is the 1st section - in the past, we compared Obama & Trump's border policies and whether the media focused more on the issue of deportations & refugee detention centers under Trump and ignored Obama's role as "deporter-in-chief". A lot of the arguments revolved around the issue of family separation in detention center and when this started. (We could've done a similar comparison to the ways the Trump & Biden administrations handled the southern border crisis, with Vice-President Kamala Harris telling Guatemalan migrants "Don't come" in June 2021 and DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas reiterating this to Cuban & Haitian refugees in July, but I felt that would be focusing more on political point-scoring rather than conspiracy theories & moral panic.)
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/250590230/

FYI: I also covered this topic for the Philadelphia Thinking Society back in Oct. 2018 -
https://www.meetup.com/thinkingsociety/events/254973933/

Back in August 2018 we had a meetup entitled "Europe's Debates over Migrant Crime & Terrorism" where we discussed: (1) migrant crime rates and the alleged "rape crisis" in Europe, (2) the Rotherham scandal and "grooming gangs" in the UK, (3) allegations of "no-go zones" and de-facto Sharia law in European cities, and (4) the migrant crisis as a "terrorist Trojan horse" and the dangers from returning ISIS fighters.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/251759967/

This meetup will be followed by a related meetup hosted by the Philly Political Agnostics that will explore the moral psychology behind why people view immigration differently, the ethics of different immigration policies, and the economic & social effects of high levels of immigration:
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/mxpscsyccpblc/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over refugees & illegal immigrants coming into the U.S., primarily from Latin America. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 41 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. As you can see, I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as any other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. FEARS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUT "THE GREAT REPLACEMENT", AND THE RHETORICAL PHENOMENON OF THE "CELEBRATION PARALLAX"

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1a) Newsbroke, "White Genocide: Fake And Present Danger" (video - 9:45 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nc1QJVeDZYQ

1b) Patrick Casey, "The Celebration Parallax" (video - 1:50:25, start at 1:09:31 & listen to 1:24:20)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjCiOBHo6rc&t=69m31s

• Wikipedia, "Great Replacement"
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Replacement

• Wikipedia, "White genocide conspiracy theory"
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_genocide_conspiracy_theory

• Jack Jenkins, "Survey: ‘Great replacement’ belief correlates with Christian nationalist views"
  https://religionnews.com/2021/10/12/survey-christian-nationalist-view-of-history-correlates-with-support-for-racist-conspiracy-theory/

• Scott R. Baker, et al., "Migration Fears and Economic Policy Uncertainty"
  http://www.policyuncertainty.com/immigration_fear.html

• Brittany Farr, "A Demographic Moral Panic: Fears of a Majority-Minority Future and the Depreciating Value of Whiteness"
  https://lawreviewblog.uchicago.edu/2021/08/16/rrs-farr-demographic/

• Adam Serwer, "Demography Is Not Destiny: New numbers provide a reminder of the fluidity of American identity"
  https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/census-cant-predict-future/619830/

• John Blake, "White supremacy, with a tan" [argues the 'browning of America' won't end white supremacy if many Hispanics & mixed-race people identify as white]
  https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/04/us/census-browning-of-america-myth-blake/index.html

• Mark R. Reiff, "How important is white fear? It’s become a commonplace that demographic anxiety is driving white voters to the far Right. This is dangerously wrong"
  https://aeon.co/essays/the-demographic-shift-isnt-driving-white-people-to-the-right

• Michael Anton, "The Celebration Parallax: 'That’s Not Happening and It’s Good That It Is'”
  https://americanmind.org/salvo/thats-not-happening-and-its-good-that-it-is/

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II. THE ALLEGED "ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT CRIME WAVE" & MOVING THE GOALPOSTS IN THE DEBATE FROM VIOLENT CRIME TO DRUG-TRAFFICKING TO ILLEGAL BORDER CROSSINGS:

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2a) USA Today, "Why MS-13 is President Trump’s favorite villain" (video - 3:23 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDSRnfmPGN8

2b) Jake Tapper (CNN), "Fact checking Trump on crimes by undocumented immigrants" (video - 2:47 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoI6YX53i9s

2c) Tucker Carlson w/ Ali Noorani, "Why didn't we know truth about illegals and crime?" (video - 9:21 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDdkkTLCUUQ

• Steven A. Camarota, "Non-Citizens Committed a Disproportionate Share of Federal Crimes, 2011-16 -- 21% of those convicted of [federal] non-immigration crimes were non-citizens — 2.5 times their share of the population."
  https://cis.org/Camarota/NonCitizens-Committed-Disproportionate-Share-Federal-Crimes-201116

• Ron Unz, "His-Panic: : The Myth of Hispanic Criminality"
  https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/his-panic/

• Jason Richwine, "Model Minority?" (reply to Unz)
  https://www.aei.org/articles/model-minority/

• Alex Nowrahsteh, "The Murder of Mollie Tibbetts and Illegal Immigrant Crime: The Facts"
  https://www.cato.org/blog/murder-mollie-tibbetts-illegal-immigrant-crime-facts

• Robert Farley, "Is Illegal Immigration Linked to More or Less Crime?"
  https://www.factcheck.org/2018/06/is-illegal-immigration-linked-to-more-or-less-crime/

• Chris Nichols, "Undocumented immigrants less likely to commit crimes than U.S. citizens" [Rating: Mostly True]
  https://www.politifact.com/california/statements/2017/aug/03/antonio-villaraigosa/mostly-true-undocumented-immigrants-less-likely-co/

• Holmes Lybrand, "PolitiFact Can’t Substantiate A ‘Mostly True’ Rating On Crime Rate Of Illegal Immigrants"
  http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/04/politifact-cant-substantiate-a-mostly-true-rating-on-crime-rate-of-illegal-immigrants/

• Nadia Pflum, "Fact Check: Most heroin in U.S. now comes across Mexican border, Rob Portman says" [Rating: True]
  https://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2016/mar/14/rob-portman/most-heroin-us-comes-over-mexican-border/

• Paul Specht, "Fact Check: Would a border wall have prevented the opioid epidemic?" [Rating: Pants on Fire]
  https://www.politifact.com/north-carolina/statements/2018/feb/02/ann-coulter/would-wall-have-prevented-opioid-epidemic/

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III. CLAIMS ABOUT VOTER FRAUD & ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS - AND THE ALLEGED "DEMOGRAPHIC INEVITABILITY" OF DEMOCRAT ELECTION WINS:

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3a) Jake Tapper (CNN), "Fact check: Trump on undocumented immigrants and voting" (video - 2:17 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VohVPeiV29k

3b) Fox Business w/ Doug Ose, "Easy for illegal immigrants to vote in California?" (video - 4:08 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DT8mK_0HQxw

• Maggie Koerth-Baker, "The Tangled Story Behind Trump’s False Claims Of Voter Fraud"
  https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-noncitizen-voters/

• Holmes Lybrand, "Fact Check: Is California Registering Illegal Aliens as Democratic Voters?"
  https://www.weeklystandard.com/holmes-lybrand/fact-check-is-california-registering-illegal-aliens-as-democratic-voters

• Bethania Palma, "Fact Check: Obama Encouraged ‘Illegal Aliens’ to Vote. In an interview aimed at a millennial audience, President Obama encouraged Latino citizens to vote. He did not urge undocumented immigrants to vote."
  https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/obama-encouraged-illegal-aliens-to-vote/

• Bethnia Palma, "Is San Francisco Registering ‘Illegal Aliens’ to Vote? Non-citizen residents of San Francisco who have children can now register to vote in local school board elections."
  https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/san-francisco-voter-registration/

• Chris Nichols, "No, California didn’t pass a law allowing undocumented immigrants to register to vote"
  https://www.politifact.com/california/statements/2018/jan/24/worldnetdaily/no-california-didnt-pass-law-allowing-undocumented/

• Angelo Fichera, "California Won’t Register ‘Illegal’ Voters"
  https://www.factcheck.org/2018/03/california-isnt-planning-to-automatically-register-undocumented-immigrants-to-vote/

• Rasmussen Reports, "Most Democrats Think Illegal Immigrants Should Vote"
  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/may_2015/most_democrats_think_illegal_immigrants_should_vote

• Eileen Patten & Mark Hugo Lopez, "Are unauthorized immigrants overwhelmingly Democrats?"
  http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/07/22/are-unauthorized-immigrants-overwhelmingly-democrats/

• Ed Kilgore, "The Democrats Have Moved Left and Republicans Right on Immigration Policy, But the Hispanic Vote Has Stayed Stable"
  http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/hispanic-vote-stable-despite-polarized-immigration-policies.html

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IV. CLAIMS ABOUT WELFARE DEPENDENCY & ECONOMIC DRAIN FROM ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS - AND THE PARADOX OF "SCHRODINGER'S IMMIGRANT":

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4a) Simon Whistler, "What Would Happen if Illegal Immigrants were Removed from America" (video - 11:32 min, start at 5:36 & watch to 11:03)
https://youtu.be/3rjE2IzCrm0?t=336

4b) PBS Newshour w/ Robert Lynch & Robert Rector, "Economic Costs, Bonuses of Legalizing Undocumented Workers" (video - 8:45 min.)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GzeK5FrrAgI

• IGM Experts Panel, "Low-Skill Immigrants"
  https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/low-skilled-immigrants/

• IGM Experts Panel, "Refugees in Germany"
  https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/refugees-in-germany-2/

• Meme Policeman, "Bogus 'Facts' on Illegal Immigrants"
  http://memepoliceman.com/bogus-facts-illegal-immigrants/

• Robert Farley, "Will Trump’s Wall Pay for Itself?"
  https://www.factcheck.org/2018/03/will-trumps-wall-pay-for-itself/

• Dan MacGuill, "What Happens When You Cross the United States Border Illegally? A viral Facebook post comparing U.S. immigration policy to that of North Korea and Afghanistan gets most of the facts wrong."
  https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/illegal-immigrant-benefits/

• John Hudak, Elaine Kamarck & Christine Stenglein, "Trump threatened [to send migrants to] sanctuary cities, and they shrugged—here’s why"
  https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2019/05/01/trump-threatened-sanctuary-cities-and-they-shrugged-heres-why/

• David Frum, "The Great Immigration-Data Debate: Does the flow of new arrivals depress the wages of blue-collar American workers? It depends on how you measure." (summary of David Card & Giovanni Peri's debate with George Borjas)
  https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/the-great-immigration-data-debate/424230/

• Jason Richwine, ""Schrodinger's Immigrant' Is No Paradox: Welfare and Work Go Together in Today's America"
  https://cis.org/Richwine/Schrodingers-Immigrant-No-Paradox-Welfare-and-Work-Go-Together-Todays-America

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